BREAKING NEWS : Delegate Allocation in 2020

[UWS]

The delegate allocation for Republican and Democratic presidential candidates is available at last on the Green Papers' website.

For Republicans (especially if Trump doesn't seek re-election or gets a primary challenge from his own party), there will be 2522 delegates in total during the 2020 Republican presidential primaries, so a Republican candidate will need to win at least 1262 delegates to clinch the Republican presidential nomination.

For Democrats, there will be 4483 delegates in total during the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. So a Democratic candidate will need to win at least 2242 delegates to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/R-Alloc.phtml
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml

[justfollowingtheelections]

The delegate allocation for Republican and Democratic presidential candidates is available at last on the Green Papers' website.

For Republicans (especially if Trump doesn't seek re-election or gets a primary challenge from his own party), there will be 2522 delegates in total during the 2020 Republican presidential primaries, so a Republican candidate will need to win at least 1262 delegates to clinch the Republican presidential nomination.

For Democrats, there will be 4483 delegates in total during the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. So a Democratic candidate will need to win at least 2242 delegates to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/R-Alloc.phtml
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml

Sorry but this is hardly set in stone.  There has been a lot of talk among Democrats to get rid of superdelegates, and with Berniecrats taking control of many state parties including California, I am assuming a lot will change in how the party chooses its nominee in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

None of those numbers are final.  On the Republican side, the party strength modifiers depend on what happens in the 2018 midterms, and on the Democratic side, the modifiers depend on the scheduling of the primaries.

[Shadows]

Change from 2016 -

Alabama -1
American Samoa 0
Alaska -2
Arizona -9
Arkansas +1
California -59
Colorado +1
Connecticut -6
Delaware -4
Democrats Abroad 0
DC -3
Florida +2
Georgia +2
Guam -1
Hawaii -3
Idaho -3
Illinois 0
Indiana -13
Iowa -1
Kansas 0
Kentucky -9
Louisiana 0
Maine -1
Maryland -16
Massachusetts +1
Michigan -3
Minnesota -2
Mississippi 0
Missouri -2
Montana -5
Nebraska 0
Nevada 0
New Hampshire 0
New Jersey -18
New Mexico -5
New York -20
North Carolina +3
North Dakota -4
Northern Marinas 0
Ohio -5
Oklahoma -1
Oregon -9
Pennsylvania -35
Puerto Rico -9
Rhode Island -3
South Carolina 0
Tennessee -3
Texas +1
Utah -5
Vermont 0
Virgin Islands -1
Virginia +4
Washington -14
West Virginia -5
Wisconsin -9
Wyoming -1

Total Pledged Delegates fall from 4051 to 3768. The cuts are from Big Blue states & Rust Belt states where Southern Confederacy states stay the same or get an increase. As a % of delegates, Southern states get an even more increase in influence.

This will make it even harder for someone who doesn't have strong black vote to win the primary !

[Mr. Morden]

Total Pledged Delegates fall from 4051 to 3768. The cuts are from Big Blue states & Rust Belt states where Southern Confederacy states stay the same or get an increase. As a % of delegates, Southern states get an even more increase in influence.

This will make it even harder for someone who doesn't have strong black vote to win the primary !

What are you comparing though?  The table at the bottom of the page gives the number of delegates that each state would get before any scheduling bonuses are applied (because we don't yet know when states were voting).  Presumably the final number will be closer to the ~4000 from 2016, when bonuses are added.  The non-Southern states got bigger bonuses in 2016 because they tended to hold later primaries.  If that happens again in 2020, then the bonuses would again accrue more to non-Southern states.

[Shadows]

Total Pledged Delegates fall from 4051 to 3768. The cuts are from Big Blue states & Rust Belt states where Southern Confederacy states stay the same or get an increase. As a % of delegates, Southern states get an even more increase in influence.

This will make it even harder for someone who doesn't have strong black vote to win the primary !

What are you comparing though?  The table at the bottom of the page gives the number of delegates that each state would get before any scheduling bonuses are applied (because we don't yet know when states were voting).  Presumably the final number will be closer to the ~4000 from 2016, when bonuses are added.  The non-Southern states got bigger bonuses in 2016 because they tended to hold later primaries.  If that happens again in 2020, then the bonuses would again accrue more to non-Southern states.

True - I didn't consider that - Southern states will probably be stacked forward this time as well but let's see !

[Crumpets]

I think if the Democrats want to live up to their creed of "one man/woman/other one vote," they should weight the delegates by how many people voted in the previous primary/caucus by state. It would disincentivize caucuses, promote voter registration efforts, and pre-primary voter outreach across parties.