What wil the next Senate look like?

[catscanjumphigh]

The GOP picks up MT, NE, IN, and MO.  Joe Manchin stays but may switch to Republican by then anyways.  Democrats also have to hang on to FL, MI, OH, and PA.  Possibly 57-43 for the Republicans, but if not 56-44.  Just think had they run more moderate candidates in 2010, they could've repealed Obamacare 2 years ago.

[Figueira]

Currently predicting 55-45 Republican. Republicans take WV, IN, MO, and ND in no particular order, while Democrats take NV.

It could really be anywhere from 51-49 Democcratic to 67-33 Republican, though.

[Xing]

Currently predicting 55-45 Republican. Republicans take WV, IN, MO, and ND in no particular order, while Democrats take NV.

Pretty much this, though I'm on the fence about MT and WV.

[Chief Justice Keef]

52-48 Republican. The Rs will take IN and ND, while Ds take NV and AZ. I think McCaskill narrowly ekes it out, and the Manchin vs. Jenkins race won't be as competitive as other people think.

[Blackacre]

Ds take NV and AZ, Republicans take 0-4 of Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota. Senate ranges from 54-46 to 50-50

[Klartext89]

60-40 Republicans.

GOP holding every seat, and is picking up:

- Missouri by double digits
- Indiana by double digits
- West Virginia by high single digits
- Ohio by high single digits
- North Dakota by 3-5 points
- Montana by 2-4 points
- Florida by a hair
- Wisconsin by a hair

[LLR]

52-48, trade of Nevada for North Dakota

[andrew_c]

Probably 53-47.

[mencken]

Assuming things continue at their current trajectory^, Democrats are overreaching, catering to their coastal base while continuing to alienate the interior. Likely losses in Missouri, Indiana, and Montana, probable loss in Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota might be spared due to their incumbents' flexibility. One of the Trump-Obama states might also be peeled off. Expect 55R-45D.

^Which they almost never do

[Blackacre]

Assuming things continue at their current trajectory^, Democrats are overreaching, catering to their coastal base while continuing to alienate the interior. Likely losses in Missouri, Indiana, and Montana, probable loss in Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota might be spared due to their incumbents' flexibility. One of the Trump-Obama states might also be peeled off. Expect 55R-45D.

^Which they almost never do

That was my point I made yesterday broadly speaking. Democrats in Republican states won't survive because of Democratic obstructionism. It will be their downfall.

You mean like how GOP senate candidates in NH, OH, IA, PA, FL, WI, and IL were all screwed in 2010 because of GOP Obstructionism toward Obama?

[Chief Justice Keef]

60-40 Republicans.

GOP holding every seat, and is picking up:

- Missouri by double digits
- Indiana by double digits
- West Virginia by high single digits
- Ohio by high single digits
- North Dakota by 3-5 points
- Montana by 2-4 points
- Florida by a hair
- Wisconsin by a hair

In the alternate universe where Hillary was elected, this would be a fair prediction.

[mencken]

Assuming things continue at their current trajectory^, Democrats are overreaching, catering to their coastal base while continuing to alienate the interior. Likely losses in Missouri, Indiana, and Montana, probable loss in Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota might be spared due to their incumbents' flexibility. One of the Trump-Obama states might also be peeled off. Expect 55R-45D.

^Which they almost never do

That was my point I made yesterday broadly speaking. Democrats in Republican states won't survive because of Democratic obstructionism. It will be their downfall.

You mean like how GOP senate candidates in NH, OH, IA, PA, FL, WI, and IL were all screwed in 2010 because of GOP Obstructionism toward Obama?

The economy was still in the toilet then. Right now business is good under Trump's reign. Of course that is likely to change if Yellen can do anything about it.

[Blackacre]

Assuming things continue at their current trajectory^, Democrats are overreaching, catering to their coastal base while continuing to alienate the interior. Likely losses in Missouri, Indiana, and Montana, probable loss in Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota might be spared due to their incumbents' flexibility. One of the Trump-Obama states might also be peeled off. Expect 55R-45D.

^Which they almost never do

That was my point I made yesterday broadly speaking. Democrats in Republican states won't survive because of Democratic obstructionism. It will be their downfall.

You mean like how GOP senate candidates in NH, OH, IA, PA, FL, WI, and IL were all screwed in 2010 because of GOP Obstructionism toward Obama?

The economy was still in the toilet then. Right now business is good under Trump's reign. Of course that is likely to change if Yellen can do anything about it.

I agree with you there. The point I was trying to refute is YT's claim that Democrats' obstructing Trump will cause their downfall, because it didn't for Republicans in 2010. It was the economy that decided that election; I don't think Dems holding the line against Trump will hurt them.

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how people forget just how bad midterm elections are for first term presidents.

[peterthlee]

Trump has offended a bunch of electorate by violating basic human rights of travelling. This might culminate to a strong backlash.
D-friendly prediction: 51-49 R, 47 Democrats and 2 Indies (both Sanders and King are re-elected in landslides)
In this scenario, Dems take down Heller by 1-2 percentage points; MO, ND and IN all go down to wire but being held by Dems by less than 1 percentage point; Manchin ekes out WV win by around 3 points; Brown passes by with 4-point margin; Nelson, Stabenow and Baldwin crushes opponents by double digits. Flake will squeak by in both primary and GE (around 0.5 pp).

[Hindsight was 2020]

At the rate Trump's going best case for reps 52-48 wash of picking up 2 while lossing two to the nightmare scenario 52-48 dems with the reps picking up 0 seats while lossing AZ, NV, UT due to a three way and TX

[Klartext89]

60-40 Republicans.

GOP holding every seat, and is picking up:

- Missouri by double digits
- Indiana by double digits
- West Virginia by high single digits
- Ohio by high single digits
- North Dakota by 3-5 points
- Montana by 2-4 points
- Florida by a hair
- Wisconsin by a hair

In the alternate universe where Hillary was elected, this would be a fair prediction.

I'm sure I'll be the one closer to the result in 21 months than the ones predicting a 52-48, 53-47 or even a less GOP Senate, but I can wait and enjoy election night ^^

Honestly, the amount of reality refusal by Democrats (openly and with other colors) is shocking.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Assuming things continue at their current trajectory^, Democrats are overreaching, catering to their coastal base while continuing to alienate the interior. Likely losses in Missouri, Indiana, and Montana, probable loss in Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota might be spared due to their incumbents' flexibility. One of the Trump-Obama states might also be peeled off. Expect 55R-45D.

^Which they almost never do

That was my point I made yesterday broadly speaking. Democrats in Republican states won't survive because of Democratic obstructionism. It will be their downfall.

You mean like how GOP senate candidates in NH, OH, IA, PA, FL, WI, and IL were all screwed in 2010 because of GOP Obstructionism toward Obama?

The economy was still in the toilet then. Right now business is good under Trump's reign. Of course that is likely to change if Yellen can do anything about it.

I agree with you there. The point I was trying to refute is YT's claim that Democrats' obstructing Trump will cause their downfall, because it didn't for Republicans in 2010. It was the economy that decided that election; I don't think Dems holding the line against Trump will hurt them.

Polarization is different today than it was in 2010. Trump voters will turn out in droves during midterms in 2018 because they will want to support their President. States like Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana will be lost for Democrats. We've seen how turnout in 2016 aided Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. It is hard to imagine those seats not being competitive because angry Trump voters will happily vote out Baldwin, Stabenow, and Casey. Republicans will most definitely gain seats in the Senate. Angry Trump voters will be angered by their Democratic Senators and they will vote them out of office because they are inhibiting America from being great again. Just watch and you'll see.

Keep believing that it will make 2018 that much sweeter

[Mr. Reactionary]

It could really be anywhere from 51-49 Democcratic to 67-33 Republican,

Pretty much this. It all depends on turnout at the individual state levels. An anti trump effect would probably be less of an issue in north dakota unless GOP turnout drops. That could happen though.

[Littlefinger]

54-46
R's pick up IN, MO, and ND
D's pick up NV

[Hindsight was 2020]

Flake is in danger I don't get why AZ isn't listed more

[Orser67]

Democrats take 0-2 of NV and AZ, Republicans take 0-5 of Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota. Senate ranges from 57R-41D to 50-50.

Though I don't think it's completely possible that Democrats could pick up that fabled third seat, especially if there's a special election (e.g. for Isakson's seat) or a very ugly primary battle in TX (Cruz vs. establishment vs. Trumpians), MS (McDaniel vs. establishment), or UT (Trumpians vs. establishment).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

60-40 R (all Trump-state Democrats except for Stabenow and either Casey or Nelson lose).  Manchin may become a Republican and win re-election that way.

[BuckeyeNut]

Assuming things continue at their current trajectory^, Democrats are overreaching, catering to their coastal base while continuing to alienate the interior. Likely losses in Missouri, Indiana, and Montana, probable loss in Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota might be spared due to their incumbents' flexibility. One of the Trump-Obama states might also be peeled off. Expect 55R-45D.

^Which they almost never do

That was my point I made yesterday broadly speaking. Democrats in Republican states won't survive because of Democratic obstructionism. It will be their downfall.

You mean like how GOP senate candidates in NH, OH, IA, PA, FL, WI, and IL were all screwed in 2010 because of GOP Obstructionism toward Obama?

The economy was still in the toilet then. Right now business is good under Trump's reign. Of course that is likely to change if Yellen can do anything about it.

I agree with you there. The point I was trying to refute is YT's claim that Democrats' obstructing Trump will cause their downfall, because it didn't for Republicans in 2010. It was the economy that decided that election; I don't think Dems holding the line against Trump will hurt them.

While I agree with the bolded, I think it's worth remembering that we're dealing with incumbents. Republican obstructionism, if anything helped out in 2010, where there were not obstructionist incumbents in PA, OH, IA, and IL, among others.

[SWE]

Filibuster proof GOP majority.