Will Trump get primaried?

[The Free North]

Say he has approval ratings in the mid to low 30s and his administration is plagued by Republican defections on much of his key legislation from both the tea party types and establishment types.

Who would mount a challenge to Trump in the primary and if Trump is massively unpopular is there anyway he pulls out a win against a challenger?

[Maxwell]

I think its possible - but that challenge will be unsuccessful. The most likely challenger is some Libertarian person who doesn't care about holding his seat ala Amash, but I could see Ben Sasse running as well.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Kasich or Amash. Maybe Graham. NOT Cruz or Liddle Marco:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/675360299747184640

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I have little doubt that someone is going to do it.  Whether it amounts to something is entirely different.

[Move Forward]

Yes by Justin Amash

[The Free North]

Say he has approval ratings in the mid to low 30s and his administration is plagued by Republican defections on much of his key legislation from both the tea party types and establishment types.

Who would mount a challenge to Trump in the primary and if Trump is massively unpopular is there anyway he pulls out a win against a challenger?

I would look to what Republican politicians are currently challenging him the most who also have a wide base of support...

McCain - though he's already run so no
Graham - maybe, but he doesn't seem to have a movement behind him
Little Marco Rubio - no, he doesn't have the balls to speak out, plus the glorification of Marco Rubio is kind of over
Sasse - he seems kind of unknown now so he needs to gain national prominence
Cruz - this one seems most likely

I could definitely see Cruz. He remains an incredibly ambitious and arrogant person at heart and despite what he says, he clearly has nothing but contempt for Trump after the comments regarding his father and wife. If the opportunity is there, I could absolutely see him raise the tea party flag again and go after Trump for not being 'conservative' enough.

[LLR]

Without a doubt, somebody will primary him. Probably someone notable. Amash is the best bet at this point but who knows?

[The Free North]

Should Trump see his approval ratings drop, rivals can justify entering the race as a necessary act in order to prevent an inevitable Trump loss in 2020 and can claim some sort of ideological orthodoxy as their rallying cry and the reason Trump cannot continue to lead the party.

[Crumpets]

If he does, I don't see him losing a state in the primary.

[The Free North]

Should Trump see his approval ratings drop, rivals can justify entering the race as a necessary act in order to prevent an inevitable Trump loss in 2020 and can claim some sort of ideological orthodoxy as their rallying cry and the reason Trump cannot continue to lead the party.

The only problem with that is that Trump has moved way to the right of where people expected him to be when he took office.  He's basically giving conservatives everything they want.  The only issue I can think of that he optically doesn't appear to be on board with is gay rights.  He doesn't really seem willing to push this issue for some reason, which I find odd because he's lockstep on almost every other issue including abortion.  But even then, if he appoints supreme court justices who want to overturn gay marriage, then he's still giving conservatives what they want, just more quietly.

Plenty of Republicans in the 'constitutionalist' wing of the party are going to be very upset with him in a few years. I'm not sure its a large enough demographic, but already Mark Levin has been thrashing Trump for his infrastructure bill and his trade policies. Much of the Ted Cruz group who hold ideological orthodoxy over anything else will go after him over the ballooning debt and his authoritarian tendencies.

And of course the Romney types still hate him.

[The Free North]

Out of the 2016 primary candidates, I think Kasich was the only one that came out untainted by Trump seeing as he never endorsed him like Cruz did. I doubt he'd want to leave Ohio to take a shot in 2020 though.

[Leinad]

This:

Without a doubt, somebody will primary him. Probably someone notable. Amash is the best bet at this point but who knows?

and this:

If he does, I don't see him losing a state in the primary.

which scares me.

Like, I want to see Amash give people like me a voice, and if he puts a dent in the incumbent that would be yuge, giving him a great platform for 2024. But...if he gets wiped out he'd be ruined in the party, right?

[SCNCmod]

Probably... But no Primary challenger will make a dent

[JMT]

Out of the 2016 primary candidates, I think Kasich was the only one that came out untainted by Trump seeing as he never endorsed him like Cruz did. I doubt he'd want to leave Ohio to take a shot in 2020 though.

He's term limited in 2018, so he'll be out of his job as governor when 2020 rolls around. He has nothing to lose, and may have one more run in him. I think many Republicans see John Kasich as a voice of reason, and he could be Trump's main challenger in 2020. Unfortunately, I don't think he would be too successful though. Maybe Kasich would win the Ohio primary again, but beyond that I don't see Trump being in any real danger in the primaries.

[daveosupremo]

Kasich or Amash. Maybe Graham. NOT Cruz or Liddle Marco:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/675360299747184640

[Maxwell]

This:

Without a doubt, somebody will primary him. Probably someone notable. Amash is the best bet at this point but who knows?

and this:

If he does, I don't see him losing a state in the primary.

which scares me.

Like, I want to see Amash give people like me a voice, and if he puts a dent in the incumbent that would be yuge, giving him a great platform for 2024. But...if he gets wiped out he'd be ruined in the party, right?

to be fair to Amash, I don't think he's cared all that much about perceptions about him from the GOP establishment or Trump GOPers.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Have a feeling Justin Amash is going to primary Trump and siphon off some libertarian votes. I also could see John Kasich mount a second run if things really go downhill over the next four years.

I keep seeing Ted Cruz's name being thrown around, no way. He's a political opportunist and I think he's gonna go with the tide to satisfy Republicans.

[MarkD]

Notwithstanding the fact his term as a Senator is up in 2020, I would think that many Republicans would flock to Ben Sasse.

[daveosupremo]

Notwithstanding the fact his term as a Senator is up in 2020, I would think that many Republicans would flock to Ben Sasse.

There is nobody on Earth is rather have as president than Ben Sasse, but he won't run in 2020. He would be giving up his Senate seat to run an impossible race against Trump.

I do think he's likely to run in 2024 as the conservative, limited government constitutionalist candidate that Cruz tried to be last year. Sasse is basically Cruz, plus good looks and charisma, without the holier than thou televangelist vibe.

[Leinad]

to be fair to Amash, I don't think he's cared all that much about perceptions about him from the GOP establishment or Trump GOPers.

Yeah, which is very good in my book, but I'd imagine he'd need some of them to at least tolerate him to even win the nomination (which is a very hard task regardless of if they think he's "loyal" or not, but still).

[You are responsible]

Say he has approval ratings in the mid to low 30s and his administration is plagued by Republican defections on much of his key legislation from both the tea party types and establishment types.

Who would mount a challenge to Trump in the primary and if Trump is massively unpopular is there anyway he pulls out a win against a challenger?

If Donald Trump is running in 2020, I assume he will get primaried, yes.

[Frimaire]

He will probably get a revolt from the moderate base of the Party. Ben Sasse, Cory Gardner, Brian Sandoval could be the standard bearers of this rebellion.

But, if he manages to stay 4 (!) years in the WH, I guess he could even alienate the Evangelicals. Watch out for Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz then.

[Sir Mohamed]

Honestly, I hope he will get primaried big league. No matter whether it’s Kasich, Cruz (no matter what he currently states), Sasse or anybody. That doesn’t change the fact that Kamala Harris is my favorite and I would support any realistic Democratic nominee, but it weakens the Trumpster’s stance if there is a serious primary challenge. So let it be. Let him invest into the nomination.

I myself doubt it, but: Does anybody think there’s a slim chance that a challenge comes from Pence? Pence surely has certain ambitions, and if the Trump-Administration is a sinking ship, why shouldn’t he leave instead of having his career ended and name associated with a failed president for the rest of his life? I think he is far more loyal to his party than the Trumpster.

Also a possible candidate: Jeff Flake. A more establishment dude with relatively sane views. If he wins reelection in 2018 to the senate and his seat not up again until 2024, I wouldn’t rule a candidacy entirely out. He has never been a fan of the orange clown. However, any real candidate would only have a try if there’s a decent chance to oust the Trumpster.

[Shadows]

No. There will no major defections from the GOP - They will be reasonably united.

If people think GOP leaders have balls, they are mistaken. They are clearly supportive of Trump by allowing to do anything but want to distance themselves in some issues & will pretend to look inclusive!

[Erc]

If there is a serious attempt, likely there will only be one candidate who makes it to 2020; splitting votes against an incumbent President is a dead end.