What do you think about this scenario?

[buritobr]

Considering that a president who runs for reelection usually performs better than he performed in the first election

Donald Trump 50% PV, 326 EV
Elizabeth Warren 45% PV, 212 EV

[BaldEagle1991]

Considering that a president who runs for reelection usually performs better than he performed in the first election

Donald Trump 50% PV, 326 EV
Elizabeth Warren 45% PV, 212 EV

Those results will make me cry.

[Vosem]

Does he though? I don't even think there's really much of a pattern at all, although we had two Presidents in a row recently do better (Clinton and Bush Jr.) and perhaps it looked like a rule to some people:

Obama: worse
Bush Jr.: better
Clinton: better
Bush Sr.: worse
Reagan: better
Carter: worse
Eisenhower: better
Roosevelt: better (considering initial 1936 reelection)
Wilson: worse
Taft: worse
McKinley: better
Harrison: worse
Cleveland: worse (considering initial 1888 reelection)
Grant: better
Lincoln: better
Van Buren: worse
Jackson: worse
Adams Jr.: worse
Monroe: better
Madison: worse
Jefferson: better
Adams Sr.: worse
Washington: the same (can't improve on unanimity)

10 Presidents did better in their first reelection attempts than their initial election; 12 did worse. If you restrict yourself to the 20th-21st centuries, 5 did better, 5 did worse. If you restrict yourself to the post-WW2 era, 4 did better, 3 did worse. There's really no meaningful pattern here.

[หมูเด้ง]

What would be interesting is if he somehow wins by a million or 1.5 million votes but loses Wisconsin and Michigan but wins PA and FL by like 1% again. So  a victory but noticable switch.

Trump 50.1%  283
The Other Guy 48.7% 255
The Other Other Guys 1.2% 0

From what I guess-
HoR
D 225 (231)
R 213  (207)

Senate
D 43 (44)
R 55  (54)
I   2