Would a Booker-Castro-Warren primary look like this.....

[Sir Mohamed]

Hard to predict, but I would predict that Booker wins the nomination. He’d win most of the south and the big ones (NY, NJ, IL and probably CA if Castro is out by June). Didn’t calculate the delegate count since most are proportional, but the PV could look like this:

✓ Cory Booker: ~ 46%
Elizabeth Warren: ~ 36%
Julian Castro: ~ 16%

Castro drops out by early April.

[UWS]

Hard to predict, but I would predict that Booker wins the nomination. He’d win most of the south and the big ones (NY, NJ, IL and probably CA if Castro is out by June). Didn’t calculate the delegate count since most are proportional, but the PV could look like this:

✓ Cory Booker: ~ 46%
Elizabeth Warren: ~ 36%
Julian Castro: ~ 16%

Castro drops out by early April.

Realistic map, though I may have added Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, Hawai and probably also Kentucky to Booker.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hard to predict, but I would predict that Booker wins the nomination. He’d win most of the south and the big ones (NY, NJ, IL and probably CA if Castro is out by June). Didn’t calculate the delegate count since most are proportional, but the PV could look like this:

✓ Cory Booker: ~ 46%
Elizabeth Warren: ~ 36%
Julian Castro: ~ 16%

Castro drops out by early April.

Realistic map, though I may have added Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, Hawai and probably also Kentucky to Booker.

HI could be, yes. If the states you named are flipped to Booker, Warren would have to drop out way sooner. I put them in her column because of the many working class whites in these states. I assume Warren has a little more appeal to them. But PA, MO and KY would indeed be very close (single-digit win) in this scenario.