Would a Booker-Castro-Warren primary look like this.....

[SCNCmod]

Booker (Red)  244
Castro  (Blue)   162
Warren (Green) 126

Iowa- Tied

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think you mixed up Booker and Castro's colors

[SCNCmod]

I think you mixed up Booker and Castro's colors

Thanks! ..I corrected.

[AGA]

Maybe this.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Maybe this.

-With the exception of Indiana and maybe Ohio, PA, and Michigan.

[Donerail]

Part of the problem with these maps is that a competitive three-candidate primary from the beginning to the end is remarkably difficult to sustain and requires three separate and distinct bases of support. Warren would likely draw most of the Bernie fans, Booker most of the Hillary people. What's Castro's base? From AGA's map it looks like Castro would only be winning states with a significant Mexican population (plus Florida for some reason??), and I don't understand how that would be sufficient to sustain a primary campaign from Iowa all the way through when California and New Mexico vote in June.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Part of the problem with these maps is that a competitive three-candidate primary from the beginning to the end is remarkably difficult to sustain and requires three separate and distinct bases of support. Warren would likely draw most of the Bernie fans, Booker most of the Hillary people. What's Castro's base? From AGA's map it looks like Castro would only be winning states with a significant Mexican population (plus Florida for some reason??), and I don't understand how that would be sufficient to sustain a primary campaign from Iowa all the way through when California and New Mexico vote in June.

^Very true in honesty I can't shake the feeling that Booker might get put through the grinder in Iowa by Warren and the Bernie wing an the establishment wing will rally behind Castro fearing Booker will be Hillary all over again leading Castro getting the nom 

[AGA]

Part of the problem with these maps is that a competitive three-candidate primary from the beginning to the end is remarkably difficult to sustain and requires three separate and distinct bases of support. Warren would likely draw most of the Bernie fans, Booker most of the Hillary people. What's Castro's base? From AGA's map it looks like Castro would only be winning states with a significant Mexican population (plus Florida for some reason??), and I don't understand how that would be sufficient to sustain a primary campaign from Iowa all the way through when California and New Mexico vote in June.

Yeah, it's not really realistic. These maps just show different candidates' potential in certain states.

[Mr. Morden]

Part of the problem with these maps is that a competitive three-candidate primary from the beginning to the end is remarkably difficult to sustain and requires three separate and distinct bases of support.

Yeah, and it requires all three bases of support to be similar in size and have distinct geographical niches.  Look at the 2016 GOP race through March 15th, for example.  Kasich and Rubio were getting plenty of votes, getting 20%+ in plenty of states and one of them managed 2nd place in quite a few states, but neither of them was really winning much of anything (just MN for Rubio and OH for Kasich).  Cruz and Trump had plurality victories everywhere.  That kind of race is far more likely to happen than a race in which three candidates are all evenly balanced, with each winning seven or more states.

OTOH, look at the 2008 Republican race.  It *did* have three candidates winning 7 or more states each, and if the GOP had been using the kind of delegate allocation rules that the Dems use, Romney and Huckabee never would have dropped out, and you would have ended up with a contested convention.

[Figueira]

I think either Booker or Castro would lose steam quickly, and it would be the other of those two vs. Warren.

And Warren wins Utah no matter what.

[SCNCmod]

I think either Booker or Castro would lose steam quickly, and it would be the other of those two vs. Warren.

I think a 3 way ... Booker/Castro/Warren primary would definitely make it to the end of March... At which time, Castro could in theory be winning b/c of TX-FL-AZ-NV-CO ... but he would potentially face a very dry streak waiting for CA, PR, NM to vote the beginning of June. (But the primaries in April & May are spread out enough so that the 3 candidates could go to most of the states... so if you can make it past March- someone with good political skills still has a shot)

First 4 States:
Warren: NH
Booker: SC
Castro: NV

March 1st States:
Castro: TX, CO
Booker: AL,GA,TN
Warren: MA, OK, VT

March 15:
Castro: FL
Booker: NC, IL?
Warren: MO, OH?

March 22:
Castro: AZ
Warren: ID, UT

[Shadows]

Castro will not win a single state outside Texas. People have to come out off this stupid idea that a Hispanic guy will sweep hispanic votes. Castro is a little boy.

In a Castro vs Booker vs Warren race, Warren would comfortably win 60% of the delegates. If Castro does well, he would be taking more off Booker further strengthening Warren!

[President Johnson]

Agree that Castro would be toast. He'd win Texas if hasn't dropped out before, but that's it.

Assuming Castro drops out after Super Tuesday and Booker/Warren fight to the end:

Warren
Booker
Castro

[SCNCmod]

Castro will not win a single state outside Texas. People have to come out off this stupid idea that a Hispanic guy will sweep hispanic votes. Castro is a little boy.

In a Castro vs Booker vs Warren race, Warren would comfortably win 60% of the delegates. If Castro does well, he would be taking more off Booker further strengthening Warren!

I definitely disagree that Warren would win 60% of the delegates... especially considering she will do horrible in the South.

Regarding Castro being little boy...Not saying he will get the Nominee... But he is more experienced than Trump at running a Government. He is a very charismatic speaker... & an impressive Edu background (Stanford/ Harvard Law) and ppl said similar things at 1st regarding Obama vs the very experienced Hillary in 2008.

Watch a few minutes of his 2012 DNC Keynote address (its 2nd only to Obama's Keynote among modern speeches)... he has as much political talent as anyone in the 2020 race.  I think many people are definitely Completely underestimating Castro (& low expectations could work to his advantage early in the Primaries).

Julian Castro (2012):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSvEOEB7UW0&t=40s

[henster]

I really hope this isn't all who ends up running.

[SCNCmod]

I really hope this isn't all who ends up running.

There probably will be several unexpected fairly strong candidates... But right now- I definitely think the 2020 Pres/VP ticket will include either Booker or Castro

They are the 2 most charismatic Dems & both have stellar Education Creds (Inexperience is almost never a liability... perceived lack of intelligence is-- the case with Palin & Quayle... both of whom have experience- where were seen a lacking intellect.

[SCNCmod]

Also- Sometimes ppl seem to insinuate Booker's appeal is totally steeped in Minority turnout...

But, (whether he is the best nom for 2020 or not) the reality is- He has a tailor made resume for the nomination, even if he was white:
College Football Player, Stanford, Yale Law, Rhodes Scholar, Large City Mayor, Senator, Charismatic, good speaker, ideal age.

[Slick Willie]

Castro would be John Edwards, Warren would be Obama, and Booker would be Clinton.

Warren wins with a combination of North Eastern, Mid-West, and Western states.

[SCNCmod]

Castro would be John Edwards, Warren would be Obama, and Booker would be Clinton.

Warren wins with a combination of North Eastern, Mid-West, and Western states.

Show me a map that has Warren Winning ... her winning state don't Add up to anywhere close to a victory...  Especially considering she wins No southern States & Booker wins the 2 Big NE states.. NJ & NY.

You can't lose all of the Southern States + NY, NJ, MD, IL and win the nomination

[Intell]

+ American Samoa goes to Castro
+ Democrats Abroad goes to Castro
+ Northen Maries goes to Castro
+ Guam goes to Castro
+ Puerto Rico goes to Castro

Assuming the same primary dates of 2016, Castro drops out after Super Tuesday. Warren wins.

[R/H]

If the primaries are scheduled the same way they did in 2016 :

Booker : Red

Warren : Green

Castro : Blue


Iowa : tied

Assuming Castro drops out of the race in mid-May or before, Booker would win California and the nomination.

[OneJ]

+ American Samoa goes to Castro
+ Democrats Abroad goes to Castro
+ Northen Maries goes to Castro
+ Guam goes to Castro
+ Puerto Rico goes to Castro

Assuming the same primary dates of 2016, Castro drops out after Super Tuesday. Warren wins.

I'm curious. How would Castro win states like Louisiana and Mississippi. These two would likely go for Booker in this scenario, but Castro would probably win both if Booker isn't on the ballot.

I would say that Maryland, North Carolina, and Delaware are stretches too.

[NeederNodder]

+ American Samoa goes to Castro
+ Democrats Abroad goes to Castro
+ Northen Maries goes to Castro
+ Guam goes to Castro
+ Puerto Rico goes to Castro

Assuming the same primary dates of 2016, Castro drops out after Super Tuesday. Warren wins.

I'd say That Dems Abroad would go to Warren. If it went to Sanders in 2016, then it'll go Warren.

[Intell]

+ American Samoa goes to Castro
+ Democrats Abroad goes to Castro
+ Northen Maries goes to Castro
+ Guam goes to Castro
+ Puerto Rico goes to Castro

Assuming the same primary dates of 2016, Castro Booker drops out after Super Tuesday. Warren wins.

I'm curious. How would Castro win states like Louisiana and Mississippi. These two would likely go for Booker in this scenario, but Castro would probably win both if Booker isn't on the ballot.

I would say that Maryland, North Carolina, and Delaware are stretches too.

Assuming the timetable of the 2016 primary season, and the Booker drops out after Super Tuesday, this is what I assume the map to be.

[Slick Willie]

Castro would be John Edwards, Warren would be Obama, and Booker would be Clinton.

Warren wins with a combination of North Eastern, Mid-West, and Western states.

Show me a map that has Warren Winning ... her winning state don't Add up to anywhere close to a victory...  Especially considering she wins No southern States & Booker wins the 2 Big NE states.. NJ & NY.

You can't lose all of the Southern States + NY, NJ, MD, IL and win the nomination

Here:

Warren (Green)

Booker (Red)

Castro (Blue)