Election night 2020: Trump has a 40% approval rating

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Imagine if a political seer told you on election night 2020 Trump's approvals would average 40%. He gave no other info.

What would you expect?

[Hindsight was 2020]

[pbrower2a]

40% approval likely translates to about 46.5% of the popular vote, which is in fact an improvement for Donald Trump. But it is not enough, as 2020 is a true binary campaign, and Democrats do a better job of targeting voters. At the least, Democrats win three of Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well as everything that they won in 2016.

The Republicans will definitely lose the Senate.

[Voice of low info America]

40% approval likely translates to about 46.5% of the popular vote, which is in fact an improvement for Donald Trump. But it is not enough, as 2020 is a true binary campaign, and Democrats do a better job of targeting voters.

https://www.ft.com/content/bee3298c-e304-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a

[หมูเด้ง]

I think I've read in a number of places that historically a Presidents final approval ratings translate to about what they get in the popular vote for re-election.  I could be wrong, but if that is the case then that would be a bloodbath of unseen levels in recent history.  Republicans would probably lose the house and could lose the senate under such a scenario, depending upon how 2018 turns out.

If Trump is at 40% in 2018, the House is gone.

[tomhguy]

[หมูเด้ง]

Wars aren't the only thing that pisses people off.

And the economy was roughly where it is now. That probably won't be the case in either 2018 or 2020.

[หมูเด้ง]

I think I've read in a number of places that historically a Presidents final approval ratings translate to about what they get in the popular vote for re-election.  I could be wrong, but if that is the case then that would be a bloodbath of unseen levels in recent history.  Republicans would probably lose the house and could lose the senate under such a scenario, depending upon how 2018 turns out.

If Trump is at 40% in 2018, the House is gone.

I'm more cautious about 2018 because Democrats don't turn out to vote in off-year elections for whatever sad reason.  But I think unless he really delivers in the next year or so... the Democrats will make some gains, like maybe 10 seats.

This narrative is bogus. People don't turnout if their party holds power and their party is relatively unpopular. If Dems aren't motivated to vote against Trump in 2018, they deserve to lose everything. Or just cease to be a party.

I could see the Democrats replaced  by the end of Trump's presidency in a worse case scenario.

[Crumpets]

I think I've read in a number of places that historically a Presidents final approval ratings translate to about what they get in the popular vote for re-election.  I could be wrong, but if that is the case then that would be a bloodbath of unseen levels in recent history.  Republicans would probably lose the house and could lose the senate under such a scenario, depending upon how 2018 turns out.

If Trump is at 40% in 2018, the House is gone.

I'm more cautious about 2018 because Democrats don't turn out to vote in off-year elections for whatever sad reason.  But I think unless he really delivers in the next year or so... the Democrats will make some gains, like maybe 10 seats.

This narrative is bogus. People don't turnout if their party holds power and their party is relatively unpopular. If Dems aren't motivated to vote against Trump in 2018, they deserve to lose everything. Or just cease to be a party.

Bump this in 2018... Democrats won't take back the house because their turnout will be meh despite their protests against Trump.  They will gain some seats though.

Ok... Do you seriously mot remember the last time a Republican President was hovering at 40% job approval in a midterm election? And don't just say "Iraq!"

I feel like the districts are more gerrymandered now and the country is more polarized, which makes it harder to switch seats.  And also... Iraq... I know you think that's a cop out, but he literally started a massive war that was later found to be based on bogus facts...

Well history is repeating itself with #alternativefacts so we'll see!

OK true... but I remember I did a poll here like maybe a month ago on who was more hawkish... Hillary or Trump... and most people voted Hillary... I don't think Trump would be inclined to start an unjust war at least.  Especially not after he attacked the Iraq war so much.

I honestly doubt Trump is a competent enough leader to recognize an Iraq-style quagmire when he sees one. Had Obama gone into Libya with the same mindset and advisors as Bush, there's every chance we'd still be policing the streets of Tripoli to this day. Trump is impulsive and petty enough that he could turn basically any minor scuffle around the world into his own Iraq. Just look at how badly this EO has been implemented this weekend. Now imagine if, for example, protesters storm our embassy in a country where the president had called Trump a "small-handed buffoon" a few days earlier over some small dispute. Do we really think Trump would take an even-headed approach to the situation?

[Virginiá]

This narrative is bogus. People don't turnout if their party holds power and their party is relatively unpopular. If Dems aren't motivated to vote against Trump in 2018, they deserve to lose everything. Or just cease to be a party.

That might be a fair assessment, although we don't have a ton of post-2000 midterms to work with. 2010 and 2014 saw about even party share of the electorate, and Republicans won their normal share of Democrat voters. A big difference appears to be that generally whoever is getting the wave wins a large majority of independent voters. 2006/2008 it was Democrats by large margins (2006 was largest), then 2010-2014 was Republicans, with 2010 being their largest. 08/06 both had Democrats winning about 4% more Republicans than they have in the past 3 elections.

I'd say if there was a backlash wave, it will come down to marginal pro-Democrat differences in turnout, winning over a bit more Republicans than usual and flipping the independent vote by a large margin. Of course, where these surges in support happen will be important, too.

[NeederNodder]

Will Trump even be president by 2020? Simply Joking.

But approval ratings really don't matter anymore if the last election means anything. I would focus on the economy or terrorism from the last four years in 2020 as a better estimate of whether The Dems take back the White House, Senate, and Congress.

[Pericles]

I think I've read in a number of places that historically a Presidents final approval ratings translate to about what they get in the popular vote for re-election.  I could be wrong, but if that is the case then that would be a bloodbath of unseen levels in recent history.  Republicans would probably lose the house and could lose the senate under such a scenario, depending upon how 2018 turns out.

If Trump is at 40% in 2018, the House is gone.

I'm more cautious about 2018 because Democrats don't turn out to vote in off-year elections for whatever sad reason.  But I think unless he really delivers in the next year or so... the Democrats will make some gains, like maybe 10 seats.

This narrative is bogus. People don't turnout if their party holds power and their party is relatively unpopular. If Dems aren't motivated to vote against Trump in 2018, they deserve to lose everything. Or just cease to be a party.

Yes, the Democrats won the 2006 midterms, and I think 2018 can, and should, be a repeat of 2006.

[pbrower2a]

Imagine if a political seer told you on election night 2020 Trump's approvals would average 40%. He gave no other info.

What would you expect?

Is Donald Trump running for re-election?

Basically he has either stopped the bleeding early in his term (like about April 2017 and keeping a steady 40% approval rating, or he has sunk to abysmal levels of approval to something simply awful.

Republicans have only two chances to win the Presidential election -- if the liberal vote splits or if the Republicans rig the election. A rigged election would likely look much like 2016.   

Donald Trump or his successor gets 44-45% of the vote, and Democrats pick up Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa, maybe Ohio.... and some states that Democrats have not won since the 1990s.

Republicans clearly lose the Senate, and perhaps the House.

[DPKdebator]

Before the election, polls showed his approval rating at 34%.

[Cory]

40% approval likely translates to about 46.5% of the popular vote, which is in fact an improvement for Donald Trump. But it is not enough, as 2020 is a true binary campaign, and Democrats do a better job of targeting voters.

https://www.ft.com/content/bee3298c-e304-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a

You posted a link to a paywall, you awful tool.