Who should be included in 2020 primary polls?

[Crumpets]

IMHO, one of the big reasons nobody saw the Trump surge coming before June 2015 was because of just how few polls included him, and how few people actually thought he'd run. At the same time, he probably wouldn't have had as much support as he did to start of with if it weren't for all the media attention he got in the lead-up to his run. The Democrats in 2020 face some similar candidates with the likes of Michelle Obama, George Clooney, and Oprah being mentioned as possibilities. At the same time, there are candidates like Cuomo, Franken, and Booker, who claim to not be running, but whom very few people believe have actually made up their mind not to run.

So, here's the list of all potential candidates from Wikipedia, including those who have ostensibly declined to vote. However, you can only pick ten, as most polling companies don't like having more than ten options; people can press buttons for each one, and thus the company doesn't have to hire a live pollster.

Also, note: I didn't include Zuckerberg or Kanye, since apparently, according to Wikipedia, they're listed as "Independent" potential candidates.

My list:
Biden
Booker
Brown
Franken
Gabbard
Gillibrand
Harris
Klobuchar
Sanders
Warren

[DPKdebator]

Biden
Booker
Brown
Cooper
Cuomo
de Blasio
Gabbard
Harris
Obama
Warren

[America Needs R'hllor]

Biden
Booker
Brown
Cuomo
Franken
Gillibrand
Harris
Klobucher
O'Malley
Warren

[Mr. Morden]

I think that, for example, Sherrod Brown is more likely to be the nominee than Martin O'Malley, even though O'Malley's more likely to run, and has actually done things to indicate he's interested, whereas Brown really hasn't.  But who gets included in polls should be based on who is actually most likely to run, even if they'd be longshots, so I'd include O'Malley while excluding Brown.

Of course, for many of these folks, it doesn't matter if they're included at this point, because they have zero name ID, and would presumably poll at 0 or 1%.  E.g., Klobuchar has dropped hints of presidential ambition, but whether she gets included or not in 2017 doesn't matter, because she's not going to be polling above 1% when no one knows who she is.