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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  MD Governor: New Poll 7/21/05 (Here's a shocker)
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Author Topic: MD Governor: New Poll 7/21/05 (Here's a shocker)  (Read 2291 times)
nick
nickshepDEM
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« on: July 21, 2005, 11:54:58 am »

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R)    46%
Martin O'Malley (D)    41%
Other    3%

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R)    43%
Doug Duncan (D)    44%
Other    4%

MD Governor 2006: Ehrlich Faces Tough Re-election Bid

July 21, 2005--Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich won his current job by narrowly defeating Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002. Early indications are that he will face another tough election battle in 2006, regardless of who the Democrats nominate as the challenger.

A Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey finds that Ehrlich leads Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley by five percentage points at this time. Ehrlich attracts 46% of the vote to 41% for O'Malley.

The race is even closer between the Republican incumbent and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan. Duncan earns 44% of the vote in that match-up to 43% for Ehrlich.

Ehrlich has a solid lead among male voters over either Democrat. However, both Democrats lead Ehrlich among women.

The margin of sampling error for the full survey sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Ehrlich is seen as politically conservative by 50% of voters and moderate by another 30%.

O'Malley is seen as liberal by 45% and moderate by 29%. For Duncan, the numbers are 29% liberal and 31% moderate.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Maryland voters consider themselves politically conservative. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they are moderate and 24% liberal.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Maryland%20Governor.htm
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2005, 12:02:26 pm »

Up until now, had Ehrlich been a shoe-in for re-election, Nick?

Dave
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2005, 12:05:47 pm »
« Edited: July 21, 2005, 12:10:19 pm by nickshepDEM »

Up until now, had Ehrlich been a shoe-in for re-election, Nick?

Dave


No, Ehrlich has never been shoo-in.  The shocker here is... O'Malley is losing and Duncan is winning.  A couple months ago O'malley was leading in the polls while Duncan was barley polling above 30% vs Governor Ehrlich.  What Im getting from this poll is, the people of Maryland want change, just not in the way of Mayor O'Malley.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2005, 12:14:44 pm »

Up until now, had Ehrlich been a shoe-in for re-election, Nick?

Dave


No, Ehrlich has never been shoo-in.  The shocker here is... O'Malley is losing and Duncan is winning.  A couple months ago O'malley was leading in the polls while Duncan was barley polling above 30% vs Governor Ehrlich.  What Im getting from this poll is, the people of Maryland want change, just not in the way of Mayor O'Malley.

Ah right, I haven't paid much attention to the gubnatorials. Basically, I just hope Maryland Democrats pick somebody who can send Ehrlich packing

Dave
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2005, 12:17:26 pm »
« Edited: July 21, 2005, 12:40:19 pm by nickshepDEM »


I just hope Maryland Democrats pick somebody who can send Ehrlich packing

Both candidates are capapble of defeating Ehrlich.  Actually, just about any Democrat is capapble of defeating Ehrlich, thats just the nature of partisan politics.  In my opinion this race is going to come down to two deciding factors.

1.)  Lt. Gov.
-  Who will Ehrlich choose to replace Steele?
-  Will the Democratic candidate for Governor choose an African American running mate and keep the AM base happy?

2.)  Anne Arundel County

Ehrlich sorta' reminds me of President Bush.  No major accomplisments worth mentioning, yet he remains relatively popular.  People just seem to like the guy.
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Jake
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2005, 12:36:47 pm »

Interesting. I still maintain that Duncan is your best bet to win this race, but either candidate should be able to do it.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2005, 12:47:52 pm »
« Edited: July 21, 2005, 12:51:45 pm by nickshepDEM »

Regarding my "two deciding factors"...

For Lt. Gov. it looks like Ehrlich is leaning towards...  Nancy Grasmick, the state superintendent of schools.  Here's the catch, she is a Democrat.

Grasmick's got money, picking a woman and a Democrat would be a strategic choice in a climate where he has to expand his base, and it would give Ehrlich's ticket a good angle to attack O'Malley on Baltimore City's horrendous school system.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2005, 12:55:53 pm »

Ehrlich sorta' reminds me of President Bush.  No major accomplisments worth mentioning, yet he remains relatively popular.

Approval ratings in the mid-40s for President Bush show that he is unpopular.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2005, 01:04:09 pm »


Approval ratings in the mid-40s for President Bush show that he is unpopular.

Yeah, but the only approval rating that matters is the one on election day.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2005, 01:05:00 pm »

Ehrlich sorta' reminds me of President Bush.  No major accomplisments worth mentioning, yet he remains relatively popular.

Approval ratings in the mid-40s for President Bush show that he is unpopular.

Huh?  The last two SUSA polls say approval ratings of 48% and 48% and disapproval ratings of 45% and 45%.  Borderline being in trouble in a Democrat state such as Maryland, but not the mid-40s (which would be in trouble).

As I have said on this site countless times, I will not, repeat will not vote for Martin O'Malley for Governor.  Apparently there are some Marylanders who wisely feel the same way.

Nickshepdem is quite right as to what the two deciding factors will come down to in this race; he's probably also right as to who Ehrlich will pick as a running mate.  But as of right now, this race remains a tossup until we finally have a nominee and then I'll start making predictions.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2005, 01:07:50 pm »

Yeah, but the only approval rating that matters is the one on election day.

That's true, but his popularity has obviously gone down since he was re-elected.

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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2005, 01:10:38 pm »

As I have said on this site countless times, I will not, repeat will not vote for Martin O'Malley for Governor.

What are your reasons?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2005, 01:13:52 pm »

As I have said on this site countless times, I will not, repeat will not vote for Martin O'Malley for Governor.

What are your reasons?

I live and work in Baltimore.  I have seen his corruption in action ( in the city school system, hotel construction, etc.) constantly.  The city is still as dangerous as it was when he took office (I don't care what numbers say) and his police force cannot handle the massive drug problem.

Simply put, he is an incompetant louse.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2005, 01:20:57 pm »

All politicans' approval ratings go down after they are reelected. Obviously someone hasn't done their homework.

I've always thought Ehrlich was a favorite and I see no reason to change that. It'll be a close race but I'm impressed with Ehrlich's political savvy.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2005, 01:33:30 pm »
« Edited: July 21, 2005, 01:38:22 pm by nickshepDEM »


I live and work in Baltimore.  I have seen his corruption in action ( in the city school system, hotel construction, etc.) constantly.  The city is still as dangerous as it was when he took office (I don't care what numbers say) and his police force cannot handle the massive drug problem.

Simply put, he is an incompetant louse.

I actually agree.  Well, somewhat.  The school system is a disaster.  There is millions missing from the budget and no one knows where the money went.  His handling of the BCPD has been pretty lousy.  Central booking is a complete mess.  (Side note:  Violent crime is down, but murders are up.) 

However, I think he has done some good.  Especially in the development area.  Canton, Federal Hill, Locust Point, and The Inner Harbor are all coming along very, very nicely.  Money is flowing like water through those areas.
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nini2287
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2005, 04:27:52 pm »

Another reaosn to vote for Duncan.  Somebody who isn't a complete nutjob.  However, I bet O'Malley will win the Dem Primary.  Any polls for the primary?
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2005, 05:23:09 pm »

Another reaosn to vote for Duncan.  Somebody who isn't a complete nutjob.  However, I bet O'Malley will win the Dem Primary.  Any polls for the primary?

The O'Malley camp released a poll the other day.  O'Malley is way ahead.  The results are in the MD Gubernatorial thread.
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Jake
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« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2005, 05:49:53 pm »

Remember Vorlon's rules. A partisan poll showing the candidate who released it ahead shouldn't be trusted.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2005, 06:39:35 pm »

Remember Vorlon's rules. A partisan poll showing the candidate who released it ahead shouldn't be trusted.

Totally agree.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2005, 09:49:27 pm »

I think I'm going to see O'Malley speak at the Press Club in a couple weeks.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2005, 11:30:55 pm »


I really like Doug Duncan, and I think he is a better candidate than O'Malley in the logn run, but it really doesn't make a lot of sense that Duncan would be running ahead at this point in the campaign, so I'm skeptical.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2005, 09:22:19 am »

I think I'm going to see O'Malley speak at the Press Club in a couple weeks.

He's really not all that impressive.  I thought his speech at the 2004 convention was borderline horrible.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #22 on: July 22, 2005, 09:27:49 am »

I think I'm going to see O'Malley speak at the Press Club in a couple weeks.

Why are you attending a Democratic speech?
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2005, 09:28:28 am »

Why are you attending a Democratic speech?

He's a closet Democrat.  Has too much pride to admit it though.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2005, 09:29:41 am »

Nice signature, Nick.
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