Predict Trump's performance in Utah

[OneJ]

After a disasterous performance of not even getting 50%, what percent do you guys expect Trump to get next time if he runs for reelection?

I project somewhere between 55-60.

[ClassiCoolidge]

I think he'll do better next time. The party will most likely be more united than 2016. I'm guessing around 60-70%.

[Klartext89]

I think he'll do better next time. The party will most likely be more united than 2016. I'm guessing around 60-70%.

I assume he gets the 45% who voted for him and the vast majority of McMullin voters and some Johnson voters. Makes something about 65%.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I'll say high fifties, with an unusually strong (relative to the cycle) third party presence there.

[pbrower2a]

I'm thinking that any Democrat will have values far closer to Mormonism than Donald Trump has. (I certainly do! I also consider the Mormon sense of community a good model for the rest of America. I can imagine someone running an independent campaign just to show Donald Trump that one offends Mormon values  and risks losing the state.

Utah has a fast-growing Hispanic population, so the huge margins that Republicans used to get will be no more. We need remember that Utah has been an R state only since the 1950s, when Eisenhower cultivated the cultural conservatism of Mormons to pull them into the Republican party. 

I'd be delighted to see an anti-Trump Mormon Republican win Utah and see Atlas Green apply to someone not a racist populist. 

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I'm thinking that any Democrat will have values far closer to Mormonism than Donald Trump has. (I certainly do! I also consider the Mormon sense of community a good model for the rest of America. I can imagine someone running an independent campaign just to show Donald Trump that one offends Mormon values  and risks losing the state.

Utah has a fast-growing Hispanic population, so the huge margins that Republicans used to get will be no more. We need remember that Utah has been an R state only since the 1950s, when Eisenhower cultivated the cultural conservatism of Mormons to pull them into the Republican party. 

I'd be delighted to see an anti-Trump Mormon Republican win Utah and see Atlas Green apply to someone not a racist populist. 

-Utah is the most economically conservative state in the nation, and its junior Senator is the most economically conservative senator in the nation. HRC got only three points more of the Utah vote than Barack Obama did running against the best conceivable candidate for Utah -a heartless Mormon capitalist (admittedly, HRC was a poor fit for Utah due to being neither a Mormon nor a clean government type). The Hispanic population growth will depend heavily on Trump's immigration policy.

Utah is kinda like Vermont, but in reverse. Both are poor fits for populist Trump/Huckabee/Carter/Stevenson types, but the Cruzlam/Goldwaterism is far, far more prominent in Utah, and it's gonna be hard to eradicate.

[Mr. Smith]

See Idaho this election.

Barring McMullin running again as an Independent with more teeth and the Democrat being a genuinely really really nice person [think Jimmy Carter or Sanders-esque], the state will probably go even harder for Trump.

At the end of the day, the average Utah Mormon isn't really that removed from the Southern Evangelical, remove racial matters and add a little more emphasis on politeness are practically the only differences now.

So basically, don't rock the values boat, keep tax low, and the vote will still be there for him by a good amount.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

See Idaho this election.

Barring McMullin running again as an Independent with more teeth and the Democrat being a genuinely really really nice person [think Jimmy Carter or Sanders-esque], the state will probably go even harder for Trump.

At the end of the day, the average Utah Mormon isn't really that removed from the Southern Evangelical, remove racial matters and add a little more emphasis on politeness are practically the only differences now.

So basically, don't rock the values boat, keep tax low, and the vote will still be there for him by a good amount.

-Sanders was a good fit for Utah, Carter a terrible one. Utah was the most Ford-voting state in 1976. Southern evangelicals were big fans of Trump, Carter, and Huckabee. Mormons were definitely not.

[AGA]

I expect Mormons to warm up to Trump by the next election. >60%.

[Mr. Smith]

See Idaho this election.

Barring McMullin running again as an Independent with more teeth and the Democrat being a genuinely really really nice person [think Jimmy Carter or Sanders-esque], the state will probably go even harder for Trump.

At the end of the day, the average Utah Mormon isn't really that removed from the Southern Evangelical, remove racial matters and add a little more emphasis on politeness are practically the only differences now.

So basically, don't rock the values boat, keep tax low, and the vote will still be there for him by a good amount.

-Sanders was a good fit for Utah, Carter a terrible one. Utah was the most Ford-voting state in 1976. Southern evangelicals were big fans of Trump, Carter, and Huckabee. Mormons were definitely not.

There's a self-righteous streak in Utah not too different from Olde Yankee Conservatism of looking down on The South and the less veiled racial dog whistles. [Hence why LBJ won instead of Goldwater]

Carter was pretty much a dead man in the state specifically because of these things [or at least that was the perception], also he shot himself in the foot with his attacks on Udall. And Ford was an extremely good fit.

And Trump/Huckabee pretty much do fit the stereotypical mold that is so frowned upon by the "There's no racism in the North" crowd.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

See Idaho this election.

Barring McMullin running again as an Independent with more teeth and the Democrat being a genuinely really really nice person [think Jimmy Carter or Sanders-esque], the state will probably go even harder for Trump.

At the end of the day, the average Utah Mormon isn't really that removed from the Southern Evangelical, remove racial matters and add a little more emphasis on politeness are practically the only differences now.

So basically, don't rock the values boat, keep tax low, and the vote will still be there for him by a good amount.

-Sanders was a good fit for Utah, Carter a terrible one. Utah was the most Ford-voting state in 1976. Southern evangelicals were big fans of Trump, Carter, and Huckabee. Mormons were definitely not.

There's a self-righteous streak in Utah not too different from Olde Yankee Conservatism of looking down on The South and the less veiled racial dog whistles. [Hence why LBJ won instead of Goldwater]

Carter was pretty much a dead man in the state specifically because of these things [or at least that was the perception], also he shot himself in the foot with his attacks on Udall. And Ford was an extremely good fit.

And Trump/Huckabee pretty much do fit the stereotypical mold that is so frowned upon by the "There's no racism in the North" crowd.

-Goldwater was actually unusually popular in Utah. Goldwater was a sunbelt True Conservative; Johnson a southern moderate.

[Klartext89]

I'm thinking that any Democrat will have values far closer to Mormonism than Donald Trump has. (I certainly do! I also consider the Mormon sense of community a good model for the rest of America. I can imagine someone running an independent campaign just to show Donald Trump that one offends Mormon values  and risks losing the state.

Utah has a fast-growing Hispanic population, so the huge margins that Republicans used to get will be no more. We need remember that Utah has been an R state only since the 1950s, when Eisenhower cultivated the cultural conservatism of Mormons to pull them into the Republican party. 

I'd be delighted to see an anti-Trump Mormon Republican win Utah and see Atlas Green apply to someone not a racist populist. 

I doubt that someone with that far-left, ultra-liberal political compass like you has anything to do with Mormon values.

"I'd be delighted to see an anti-Trump Mormon Republican win Utah"

Worked very well on November 8th lol.

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Around 60%.