Vosem
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Posts: 15,634
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: January 22, 2017, 05:30:44 PM » |
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Rubio would not have emerged as a serious candidate if Trump were not in the race. Though I suspect Cruz would still have surged (indeed, as a populist standard-bearer, much like Trump operated in our timeline) and that Kasich might have, too, considering that his surge in New Hampshire had little to do with Trump in a timeline where nobody in New Hampshire is getting over 20%, with Jeb, Christie, and Paul all still serious candidates, Kasich might've had a chance to win the state outright. Who knows.
I suspect Cruz would've been the nominee in such a timeline. In fact, I think if you start the clock the day after the 2012 election, there're very few timelines in which Cruz does not become the nominee.
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