Looking at it, I don't see how 2020 reapportionment doesn't hurt GOP in house

[Non Swing Voter]

[removed by request]

[Figueira]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

[krazen1211]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

-The most Romney-voting county in Michigan was the one growing fastest in population. Now look at heavily Dem Detroit and Flint. Rethink this.

[krazen1211]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

-The most Romney-voting county in Michigan was the one growing fastest in population. Now look at heavily Dem Detroit and Flint. Rethink this.

It is exceptionally easy for anyone with brains to dissolve MI-09. Don't tell the liberals!

[krazen1211]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

-The most Romney-voting county in Michigan was the one growing fastest in population. Now look at heavily Dem Detroit and Flint. Rethink this.

It is exceptionally easy for anyone with brains to dissolve MI-09. Don't tell the liberals!

Oh really?  Because the two districts right around it barely went Republican to begin with (one by an even smaller margin than the Dem district).  Where are the democrats going to go?  Ridiculous post.

This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?

[Person Man]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.

Gluttony is a sin too, West Virgina.

[krazen1211]

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.

Gluttony is a sin too, West Virgina.

It is indeed. And so West Virginia is losing a Congressional district. Which, incidentally, is what will happen in Metro Detroit for precisely the same reason.

In 2011, the 9th district (Gary Peters) at the time was dissolved due to mass population loss, and so shall it be again in 2021! Of course at the time, many successful Maker areas, including Peters' hometown of Bloomfield Hills, were put into the new 12th district so that Gary Peters would run there.

[Person Man]

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.

Gluttony is a sin too, West Virgina.

It is indeed. And so West Virginia is losing a Congressional district. Which, incidentally, is what will happen in Metro Detroit for precisely the same reason.

In 2011, the 9th district (Gary Peters) at the time was dissolved due to mass population loss, and so shall it be again in 2021! Of course at the time, many successful Maker areas, including Peters' hometown of Bloomfield Hills, were put into the new 12th district so that Gary Peters would run there.

Who is a "Maker"? What do they make? 

[Torie]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

-The most Romney-voting county in Michigan was the one growing fastest in population. Now look at heavily Dem Detroit and Flint. Rethink this.

It is exceptionally easy for anyone with brains to dissolve MI-09. Don't tell the liberals!

Oh really?  Because the two districts right around it barely went Republican to begin with (one by an even smaller margin than the Dem district).  Where are the democrats going to go?  Ridiculous post.

This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?

You think this is possible following existing Michigan law (e.g., minimizing county and town splits)?

[The_Doctor]

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.

You know, if you are going to insult the basic math skills of other individuals, you should be able to count how many Democrat voter districts there are on that map.  Don't worry, I'm sure you're doing big things!

HINT - look at 5, 9, 12, 13, 14

MORE HELP!! - 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 =/= 4

Just to aid in this, here's the current Michigan Congressional map for our lurkers, so they can follow this argument between you and whoever that Branch Trumpidian is.

I think this is it:

[krazen1211]

This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?

You think this is possible following existing Michigan law (e.g., minimizing county and town splits)?

Yes, indeed, quite easily, especially while including Trump numbers. The existing MI-09 voted 51-43 in this election, and thus has at least 43% of its voters as good people to salvage for fresh Republican districts. Many good people were left in the district in order to encourage Gary Peters not to run in the 11th district against Thaddeus McCotter in 2012. In fact, miserable failure DCCC chairman Steve Israel wanted Peters to run in the 11th in 2012! So that gambit worked.

Trump won Bay County by 13 points. Trump won Saginaw County, and won it bigly outside the city itself. Trump won Macomb County by 9, and won the MI-10 district by 32 points. It's the strongest district in Michigan and readily available to absorb some minimal number of Democrats. All these are massive improvements from Romney numbers.

Here is my map from 2013 (pre Trump).

http://postimg.org/image/7yynszysn/

If you prefer, I would eliminate the yellow district chop into Bay County, and the pink district chop into Wayne County.

Most folks who draw Michigan do so while cutting North Oakland County in half.

http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2013/05/9-4-michigan-congressional-map-in-2020.html


Either works, and both have substantial margin for error.

[krazen1211]

Who is a "Maker"? What do they make? 

In this context, a Maker might be one of the 53% contribute something to the federal treasury and society at large.

In this state, a lot of them make cars.

[Torie]

This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?

You think this is possible following existing Michigan law (e.g., minimizing county and town splits)?

Yes, indeed, quite easily, especially while including Trump numbers. The existing MI-09 voted 51-43 in this election, and thus has at least 43% of its voters as good people to salvage for fresh Republican districts. Many good people were left in the district in order to encourage Gary Peters not to run in the 11th district against Thaddeus McCotter in 2012. In fact, miserable failure DCCC chairman Steve Israel wanted Peters to run in the 11th in 2012! So that gambit worked.

Trump won Bay County by 13 points. Trump won Saginaw County, and won it bigly outside the city itself. Trump won Macomb County by 9, and won the MI-10 district by 32 points. It's the strongest district in Michigan and readily available to absorb some minimal number of Democrats. All these are massive improvements from Romney numbers.

Here is my map from 2013 (pre Trump).

http://postimg.org/image/7yynszysn/

If you prefer, I would eliminate the yellow district chop into Bay County, and the pink district chop into Wayne County.

Most folks who draw Michigan do so while cutting North Oakland County in half.

http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2013/05/9-4-michigan-congressional-map-in-2020.html


Either works, and both have substantial margin for error.

Both maps are illegal, although the first one is worse. You cannot have that criss crossing that you have between Wayne and Macomb, where one CD travels into Macomb, forcing the Macomb CD to in turn travel back into Wayne. But you may well be right. I was able to draw a legal map that made MI-09 marginal last time based on the 2010 census. Assuming Detroit is continuing to drain people, along with some Wayne County suburbs, perhaps the CD's that go into Oakland could absorb the portion of MI-09 in Oakland, and a Detroit based CD take southern Macomb, with MI-10 being all in Macomb (it would have to be to make the map legal), taking in everything but its southern portion, that the Detroit based CD takes, all justified by the VRA. The new MI-10 would be somewhat marginal, however, unless the GOP holds its gains in Macomb that Trump generated.

Sure the same legislature that draws the map, could also change the law that ties its hands, but that is highly unlikely to happen. The GOP likes drawing gerrymanders in Michigan, that have the veneer of fairness based on chop minimization, with it achieving most of its goals based on a careful selection of where the chops go, that is all partisan driven. It's always fun drawing maps in Michigan, trying to maximize whatever, and legally defeat the policy goals of the constraints. Yes, Krazen, legally. Some of your maps tend to toss the law into the dustbin as if it is not there. Naughty! 

[Person Man]

Who is a "Maker"? What do they make? 

In this context, a Maker might be one of the 53% contribute something to the federal treasury and society at large.

In this state, a lot of them make cars.

Have you ever heard of a "Maker's Fair"?

[Torie]

This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?

You think this is possible following existing Michigan law (e.g., minimizing county and town splits)?

Yes, indeed, quite easily, especially while including Trump numbers. The existing MI-09 voted 51-43 in this election, and thus has at least 43% of its voters as good people to salvage for fresh Republican districts. Many good people were left in the district in order to encourage Gary Peters not to run in the 11th district against Thaddeus McCotter in 2012. In fact, miserable failure DCCC chairman Steve Israel wanted Peters to run in the 11th in 2012! So that gambit worked.

Trump won Bay County by 13 points. Trump won Saginaw County, and won it bigly outside the city itself. Trump won Macomb County by 9, and won the MI-10 district by 32 points. It's the strongest district in Michigan and readily available to absorb some minimal number of Democrats. All these are massive improvements from Romney numbers.

Here is my map from 2013 (pre Trump).

http://postimg.org/image/7yynszysn/

If you prefer, I would eliminate the yellow district chop into Bay County, and the pink district chop into Wayne County.

Most folks who draw Michigan do so while cutting North Oakland County in half.

http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2013/05/9-4-michigan-congressional-map-in-2020.html


Either works, and both have substantial margin for error.

Anyway, here is a legal Pub gerrymander that makes MI-09 disappear as if in a Stephen King novel. Yes, I know it's gorgeous and skillful. I have been "doing" Michigan for years!   Of course, if the twin Pub nightmare of 1) the newly minted formerly Dem Trumpsters disappearing and reverting to their old voting habits, and 2) the Pubs failing at the same time to get back the Romney voters who decamped from the Trumpster invasion, the map will be a hideous dummy-mander, but I digress. They're really aren't that many really uber safe Pub zones in Michigan anyway.  




Because the data is available, and the precincts have not changed since 2012, just for kicks this morning, I crunched the numbers. As you can see, Mittens barely carried MI-10 as drawn above, and the CD trended in 2016 a massive 7.49% to the Pubs, clearly one of the biggest trends in the nation. The gerrymandered chop in south Macomb upped the the Pub PVI vis a vis the county as a whole by about 2.0% in 2012, and 2.5% in 2016.



The shakiest CD of the lot for the Pubs is MI-11. I calculate that Trump barely carried this CD by about a 2% margin  (I did estimates for some of the split towns using the DRA 2008 numbers (except for Westland where I manually calculated the split for 2016), but the error factor should be small).  So the Pub PVI for that CD in 2016 drops to about 2%, from about 3% now. That is what happens when CD's have to expand, and there is no more Pub territory to suck up, so the expansion needs to be into semi-hostile zones.  Presumably a Pub would still have the edge, because the candidate would appeal more to bourgeoise Romney voters who ran away from Trump (quite a number of those in this CD outside of the southeast corner of the CD in Wayne County). This CD is the reciprocal of the new MI-10, where Trump was the cat's meow rather than being a Pub anchor that almost sank the ship.

[catscanjumphigh]

Republicans have been fine with reapportionment before and they'll be fine again regardless of what the left wants.  The only gap in their majority since 1994 was over the Iraq war.