Ecuador election, 19th February

[Antonio the Sixth]

Segunda vuelta
Fuente                           Lenín Moreno   Guillermo Lasso
24/02/17   CIS68   59,0%   41,0%
25/02/17   CEDATOS69   49,0%   51,0%
01/03/17   DIAGNOSTICO70   58,39%   41,61%

It seems like Lenin  is the frontrunner?!

Seems like the polls have no clue what they're doing, if he's leading by 18 in one but trailing by 2 in another.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Go Lenin! (left-wing normal)

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to a Cedatos exit poll, Lasso has won the election. However, according to a Perfiles de Opinión exit poll, it is Moreno who has won the election. The night will be long...

Do these polls have an agenda, or is one of them more reliable?

[Antonio the Sixth]

1917-2017: LENIN LIVES ON

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks a lot for the map, SJJ!

How come the indigenous vote is so right-wing in Ecuador? I seem to remember that the opposite is true in most Latin American countries (at least in Peru, Bolivia, Brazil afaik).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Ugh, that's incredibly disappointing. Thanks for the explanation though!