Ecuador election, 19th February
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May 07, 2021, 02:25:46 PM

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Alex
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« Reply #25 on: February 20, 2017, 08:37:52 PM »

It will be 3 days untill the final result...
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FredLindq
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« Reply #26 on: February 21, 2017, 05:28:19 AM »

Lenín Moreno 39.11% (Left)
Guillermo Lasso 28.32% (Centre-right)
Cynthia Viteri 16.29% (Right) Endorsed Lasso
Paco Moncayo 6.78% (Centre-left) will not endorse anyone
Dalo Bucaram 4.77% (Populism, centre-right)
Iván Espinel 3.19% (Populism)
Patricio Zuquilanda 0.77% (Centre-left) Endorsed Lasso
Washington Pesántez 0.76% (Centre-left)

So Lasso can get about 28,3+16,3+0,8 = 45,4%
Say that Moncays voters anyway votes for Moreno as well as Pesántez which gives Moreno 39,1+6,8+0,8 =46,7%

So it is up to the voters off Bucaram and Espinel. Were might they swing?

I think that the second round  might be very close...

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Neo-JacobitefromNewYork
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« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2017, 08:47:57 AM »

Wow, second round is needed, Assange is still in danger. From BBC:

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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2017, 06:50:32 PM »

Cedatos poll:
Guillermo Lasso 52.1%
Lenín Moreno 47.9%

Meanwhile, it appears that the Alianza PAIS narrowly saved its majority in the National Assembly, winning between 72 and 75 seats out of 137.
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Shilly
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« Reply #29 on: March 01, 2017, 08:22:28 PM »

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FredLindq
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« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2017, 10:24:36 AM »

Segunda vuelta
Fuente                           Lenín Moreno   Guillermo Lasso
24/02/17   CIS68   59,0%   41,0%
25/02/17   CEDATOS69   49,0%   51,0%
01/03/17   DIAGNOSTICO70   58,39%   41,61%

It seems like Lenin  is the frontrunner?!

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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2017, 01:11:16 PM »

Segunda vuelta
Fuente                           Lenín Moreno   Guillermo Lasso
24/02/17   CIS68   59,0%   41,0%
25/02/17   CEDATOS69   49,0%   51,0%
01/03/17   DIAGNOSTICO70   58,39%   41,61%

It seems like Lenin  is the frontrunner?!



Seems like the polls have no clue what they're doing, if he's leading by 18 in one but trailing by 2 in another.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2017, 02:37:00 PM »

The strange thing is that these figures from Wikipedia is not right if you look at the links. In Cetadaos its really 52-48 for Lasso. Dignostico 50-42 for Lenin. This poll is however taken away from Wikipedia now...
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2017, 05:55:33 PM »

Cedatos is a long established polling company which has made numerous polls all along the electoral campaign and whose last poll before the first round predicted quite accurately the outcome (excluding the undecided, it was 39% for Moreno, 26% for Lasso, 17% for Viteri and 9% for Moncayo).

On the other side, CIS and Diagnostico are unknown to me. The two polls mentioned by Wikipedia are apparently the only polls made by these two companies during the 2017 election. Worth also mentioning that the Wikipedia link citing the CIS poll is from the Ecuadorian state-owned Andes news agency while the link citing Diagnostico is from the state-owned newspaper El Telégrafo.

Popular Unity has decided to openly endorse Guillermo Lasso in the runoff. For its part, Pachakutik has decided to “not support Moreno”, but, as showed by the map posted by Shilly the indigenous vote has already largely went to Lasso during the first round. Meanwhile, Jimmy Jairala, the leader of the National Democratic Center who endorsed Paco Moncayo in the first round, has indicated he will vote for Lenín Moreno after the AP candidate agreed to reform the LOC.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2017, 05:14:22 PM »

Iván Espinel has endorsed Lenín Moreno in the runoff.

Dalo will endorse Guillermo Lasso if the latter promises to convene a constituent assembly.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2017, 07:12:25 PM »

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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2017, 07:34:04 PM »


Impressive. How long did it take you?
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #37 on: March 15, 2017, 06:50:13 PM »

It took me several hours (can’t remember how many) to draw the borders of the urban parishes (the base map was made several months ago), to collect data from the CNE website (btw their antibot measures are really annoying) and to color the map. Thankfully, I have a lot of free time.



Poll from Perfiles de Opinión:

Lenín Moreno 51.02%
Guillermo Lasso 35.53%
Blank 7.24%
Null 6.21%

So counting only valid votes:

Lenín Moreno 58.95%
Guillermo Lasso 41.05%


Perfiles de Opinión is an established pollster which had however underestimated CREO support in the polls they published for the first round.
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Hash
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« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2017, 07:23:50 PM »

Sir John Johns, could you explain some of the patterns of the presidential and referendum maps? Some are intuitive or can be made sense of, but I'd be interested in getting more background.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #39 on: March 17, 2017, 04:55:38 PM »

Unfortunately, I’m afraid my knowledge of Ecuadorian electoral geography remains too limited to give an authoritative and comprehensive analysis of the results. I can (partly) explained who voted for which candidates but not why a candidate was voted for. Anyways, I can give a try, at least for the presidential election.

Galápagos

Let us start with the Galápagos islands which was Correa’s best province (64.2%) in 2013. This year, Lasso won the archipelago with 45%. Moreno placed second with 32.5% and Viteri placed third with 13.7% of the vote.

The main explanation of the AP collapse seems to be the wide unpopularity in the islands of the Special Regime Organic Law for Galápagos Province.

Costa

Like Correa in 2013, Moreno came first in every single province of the Costa region with 42.9% of the vote (down from 61.7% for Correa in 2013). Lasso won 22.1% of the vote, closely followed by Viteri (20.2%). Bucaram placed a distant fourth (7.6%).

Esmeraldas

In Esmeraldas province, Moreno won 40.6% (vs. 55.9% for Correa in 2013), against 28.1% for Lasso, and 16.8% for Viteri. The AP candidate’s best results were in the eastern part of the province, where the Afro-Ecuadorians constitute a majority of the population.

He also placed first in Telembí (40.4% vs. 40.2% for Lasso and a solid 13.9% for Moncayo) where most of the population (70.2%) is indigenous – the only parish in the whole Costa region with an indigenous majority.

Conversely, the western part of Esmeraldas province – where Mestizo/Whites constitute the majority of the population – was less supportive of Moreno. For example, in Rosa Zárate, the AP candidate placed second with 35.8% behind Lasso (38.2%); Viteri won there 13.7% of the vote.

Moreno also did poorly in the urban part of Esmeraldas canton, winning there only 31.9% of the vote, slightly ahead of Lasso (31.1%); Viteri placed third with 20.1%; Moncayo placed fourth with 7.9%.

Santo Domingo

In Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas province, which has been mostly colonized since the mid-20th century, Moreno won 40.8% of the vote (vs. 58% for Correa in 2013). Lasso won 29.9% and Viteri won 13.1%. For some reason, Lasso placed first in the southeastern part of the province.

Manabí

The strongest result for Moreno came from the province of Manabí where he triumphed by wide margin with 54% (vs. 62.8% for Correa in 2013). Lasso placed a very distant second with 18% against 10.3% for Viteri, and 7.6% for Bucaram. Manabí is the only province in which the AP candidate broke the 50% threshold.

Among the explanations of such a victory are the successful reduction of poverty under the Correa administration, the support of prefect Mariano Zambrano’s political machine, and the reconstruction efforts launched recently by the government.

For some reason, Moreno did very well in the major cities in the southwest part of the province: in the urban part of Manta canton, he notably won 60.9% against 15% for Lasso and 8.7% for Bucaram; in the urban part of Montecristí canton, he won 61.7% against a poor 9.9% for Lasso, 9.3% for Bucaram, and 7.7% for Viteri.

Moreno also swept some of the poorest parts of the province, notably the canton of Pedernales (where he won 60.2% against 21.3% for Lasso) – an area that was badly affected by the 2016 earthquake -, the canton of Pichincha (where he won 65.5% of the vote against 12.3% for Lasso, and 9.9% for Viteri), and the canton of Tosagua (58.7% vs. 16.7% for Lasso, and 11.2% for Viteri).

I have no idea why, but the AP candidate did poorly in the northeastern part of the province: in the canton of Chone he won only 44.7% against 21% for Lasso, and 19.5% for Viteri; in the canton of El Carmen, he received 38.2% of the vote against 35.6% for Lasso, and 14.4% for Viteri; in the canton of Flavio Alfaro, he only won 41.7% of the vote against 26% for Lasso, and 21.6% for Viteri. That part of the province was won by Viteri in 2006 and by Gutiérrez in 2009.

Los Ríos

In Los Ríos, an agricultural and relatively prosperous province, Moreno won 44.1% (vs. 61% for Correa in 2013). Viteri placed second with 20.9% and Lasso placed third with 19.9%. Bucaram placed fourth with 8.5%.

Moreno’s second worst results in the province were in the urban parishes of Babahoyo where he won only 32.9% against 28.7% for Viteri, 20.6% for Lasso, and 12.6% for Bucaram.

The AP candidate performed also a bit below provincial average in the urban parishes of Quevedo (43.9% vs. 22.3% for Viteri and 21% for Lasso).

Santa Elena

In the province of Santa Elena, once a stronghold of Álvaro Noboa, Moreno won 47.9% (vs. 64.1% for Correa in 2013). Lasso placed second with 28% and Viteri placed third with 9.8%. Like in 2013, Santa Elena was the second best province for the AP candidate.

Moreno’s best results came from the rural part of the province, winning only 42.6% (against 32.5% for Lasso, 11.6% for Viteri, and 7.2% for Bucaram) in the urban part of canton of Salinas, only 43.62% (against 31.6% for Lasso, and 10.2% for Viteri) in the urban parishes of the canton of Santa Elena, and 42.6% (against 27.4% for Lasso, 10.3% for Viteri, and 9.4% for Bucaram) in the urban parish of La Libertad.

Guayas

In Guayas province, Moreno won 38.8% of the vote (vs. 63.2% for Correa in 2013); Viteri placed second with 26.1%; Lasso won 21.1% of the vote and Bucaram 8.1%. Guayas was Moreno’s worst province in the Costa region.

In the urban part of Guayaquil, the AP candidate won only 35% of the vote against 28.9% for Viteri (who benefited from the political machine of Guayaquil’s mayor Jaime Nebot), 22.3% for Lasso, and 8% for Bucaram.

Generally speaking, Moreno did poorly in the central part of the city and topped the polls in the peripheral part of the city, winning notably 36.5%  against 31.1% for Viteri, 16.5% for Lasso, and 9.8% for Bucaram in Febres Cordero (a parish in which many rural migrants have settled); 37.2% against 28.4% for Viteri, 19.3% for Lasso, and 9.3% for Bucaram in Ximena, a parish where many Afro-Ecuadorian migrants from Esmeraldas have settled; 45.2% against 24.2% for Viteri, 15.7% for Lasso and 8.2% for Bucaram in Pascuales.

Lasso came ahead in the affluent suburbs of La Puntilla (76.4% vs. 11.7% for Viteri and only 8.2% for Moreno) – just look at satellite photos of this area on Google Maps to see how many tennis courts and individual swimming pools there are there – and La Aurora (41.6% vs. 24.9% for Viteri, and 23.7% for Moreno).

Conversely, Moreno topped the poll in the working-class suburbs located in the canton of Durán, winning there 43.2% against 23% for Viteri, 17.3% for Lasso, and 10.9% for Bucaram.

Moreno’s best results in the province of Guayas came from the rural parts of the canton of Naranjal, a banana-producing area: for example, in Taura, where the AP candidate won 64.9% of the vote against 18.1% for Lasso, and 7.6% for Viteri; or in Jesús María where Moreno won 62.6% of the vote against 15.5% for Lasso, and 10.3% for Viteri.

El Oro

In El Oro, Moreno won 41.8% of the vote (vs. 56.9% for Correa in 2013); Lasso placed second with 26.4% and Viteri placed third with 19.3%.

The AP candidate won his best results in the banana-producing area of El Guabo: 70% against 11.6% for Lasso and 9.3% for Viteri in Barbones; 66.8% against 13.2% for Lasso, and 10.8% for Viteri in Tendales; and 65% against 15.8% for Lasso, and 9.3% for Viteri in Río Bonito.

Conversely, the two right-wing candidates performed well in the southeast part of the province: in the canton of Atahualpa, Viteri won 39.6% against 32.8% for Moreno, and 21.2% for Lasso; in the canton of Zaruma, Viteri won 30.6% of the vote against 29.5% for Moreno, and 28.9% for Lasso; in Portovelo, Lasso won 34.1% of the vote against 29% for Moreno, and 27.4% for Viteri. This part of the country is remarkable for its relative prosperity and the presence of an important artisan mining activity. So for some reasons, the small-scale miners voted in that region for conservative candidates; back in 2002 and 2006, they had voted for León Roldós.

Sierra

Moreno narrowly won the Sierra region: 35.8% (vs. 53.2% for Correa in 2013) to 33.7% for Lasso, 12.3% for Viteri, and 11% for Moncayo.

Carchi

In the province of Carchi, an area where the Democratic Left used to be strong, Moreno won 38.8% of the vote (vs. 52.4% for Correa in 2013) against 25.5% for Lasso, 19.7% for Viteri, and 9.9% for Moncayo.

The AP candidate seems to have win the indigenous Awa vote: in Tobar Donoso (62.8% indigenous), he won 58.9% of the vote against 18.2% for Lasso; in El Chical (57.9% indigenous), he won 51.5% of the vote against 28.2% for Lasso.

Moreno’s best results came however from the Afro-Ecuadorian communities living in the Chota Valley: 76.8% against 9.8% for Lasso in Concepción (73% Afro-Ecuadorian); 71.3% against 10.25% for Lasso, and 7.9% for Viteri in San Vicente de Pusir (57% Afro-Ecuadorian).

Conversely, the AP candidate won its worst result in Tulcán, Carchi’s largest city and capital: he won in the urban parishes of that canton a poor 30.4% against 29.22% for Viteri, 27.7% for Lasso, and 7.6% for Moncayo.

Imbabura

In the province of Imbabura, Moreno won 43.1% (vs. 57% for Correa in 2013) against 25.7% for Lasso, 13.4% for Viteri, and 10.7% for Moncayo.

Like in Carchi, Moreno won his best result in the Afro-Ecuadorian communities in the Chota valley: 60% against 17.7% for Lasso, and 9.8% for Viteri in Ambuqui (54.4% Afro-Ecuadorian); 68.4% against 12.9% for Lasso, and 7% for Viteri in Salinas (57.9% Afro-Ecuadorian).

The AP candidate also won the Otavalo vote; the Otavalos are an indigenous community with a strong cultural identity which have achieved economic success and seen the emergence of an indigenous middle-class thanks to their handcraft activities.

Moreno won a mediocre result in Ibarra, the province’s capital and largest city: 37.7% of the vote vs. 28.6% for Lasso, 15.6% for Viteri, and 10.8% for Moncayo.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #40 on: March 17, 2017, 04:58:56 PM »

Pichincha

In Pichincha, Moreno won 37.3% (vs. 58% for Correa in 2013) against 32.2% for Lasso, 12.5% for Viteri, and 10.9% for Moncayo.

The AP candidate won a relatively mediocre result in the urban parishes of Quito: 36.1% against 33% for Lasso, 13.1% for Viteri, and 10.8% for Moncayo. Broadly speaking, Moreno came first in the working-class areas in the southern part of the city – for  example in Guamaní where he won 41.9% of the vote against 23.6% for Lasso, 12.5% for Moncayo, and 11.7% for Viteri. Moreno’s best results in urban Quito came however from Comité del Pueblo, a popular parish in the northern part of the city, where he won 46.5% against 24.1% for Lasso, 12.3% for Viteri, and 9.3% for Moncayo.

For his part, Lasso topped the polls in the northern affluent part of the city, winning notably 51.9% (vs. 24% for Moreno, 12.2% for Viteri, and 8.3% for Moncayo) in Iñaquito and 55.9% (vs. 21.8% for Moreno, 11.7% for Viteri, and 7.8% for Moncayo) in Rumipamba.

The CREO candidate also won the upper/middle class suburbs of Conocoto (34.5% vs. 34.3% for Moreno, 13% for Viteri, and 12.4% for Moncayo), Cumbayá (53.4% vs. 25.2% for Moreno, 10.4% for Viteri, and 7.1% for Moncayo), Nayón (42.1% vs. 28% for Moreno, 12.8% for Moncayo, and 10.4% for Viteri), and San Rafael in the canton of Rumiñahui (50% vs. 25.3% for Moreno, 13% for Viteri, and 8% for Moncayo).

For some reasons, Lasso also won several rural cantons, notably the cantons of San Miguel de los Bancos (42% vs. 33.4% for Moreno, and 14.7% for Viteri) and Pedro Vicente Maldonado (40.7% vs. 38% for Moreno, and 9.8% for Viteri).

Moreno got his best results in the province in the eastern part of the canton of Quito, where most of agricultural workers are salaried employees (and not self-employed farmers or day laborers).

Cotopaxi

In Cotopaxi, Lasso won 32.6% against 30.6% for Moreno (vs. 46.3% for Correa in 2013), 19.5% for Moncayo, and 10.1% for Viteri.

Generally speaking, Lasso won the indigenous-populated areas, notably the Zumbahua parish (98.9% indigenous) where Correa had spent part of his youth; Lasso placed there first with 44% against 28.7% for Moreno, and 17.5% for Moncayo (who also did very well in the indigenous-populated areas); back in 2013, Correa won Zumbahua with 58.4% against 17.1% for Lasso, and 9.9% for Acosta.

Lasso also topped the polls in the urban parishes of Latacunga, the province’s largest city, where he received 34% of the vote against 26.6% for Moreno, 17.6% for Moncayo, and 14.5% for Viteri.

Like in 2013, the parish of Cochapamba (99.6% indigenous) was won by the candidate of the anti-Correa left: Moncayo received there 41.2% of the vote against 38.7% for Lasso, and 14% for Moreno.

Tungurahua

In the province of Tungurahua, Lasso won 37.8% against 28.7% for Moreno (vs. 44% for Correa in 2013), 13.9% for Viteri, and 11.1% for Moncayo.

Like in Cotopaxi, Lasso topped the polls in the indigenous-populated western part of the province: 47.8% (vs. 20.2% for Moncayo, and 16.6% for Moreno) in Pilagüín (91.3% indigenous); 36.6% (vs. 23% for Moreno, 22.4% for Moncayo, and 8.7% for Viteri) in San Fernando (66.8% indigenous); 34% (vs. 27.4% for Moreno, 16.8% for Moncayo, and 11.5% for Viteri) in Pasa (73.1% indigenous); 36.7% (vs. 25.2% for Moreno, 16.4% for Moncayo, and 9.2% for Viteri) in Quisapincha (70.9% indigenous).

Lasso’s best results were however in the White/Mestizo majority parts of the province. One of the explanation I found to Lasso’s success in Tungurahua is that the provincial economy is dominated by small family-owned businesses whose owners are at odd with the fiscal and economic policy followed by the Correa administration.

In the urban parishes of Ambato, the province’s largest city, Lasso won 38.7% against 28.9% for Moreno, 16.5% for Viteri, and 8.7% for Moncayo.

Also worth mentioning that Moncayo topped the polls in the parish of Salasaca, home to an indigenous community with a vibrant and strong ethnic identity, with 41.2% against 27.5% for Lasso, and 17.7% for Moreno.

Bolívar

Lasso also placed first in the remote and poor province of Bolívar – a province which suffered from massive emigration – with 44.2% (it was Lasso’s best provincial result in the whole Sierra region) against 25.1% for Moreno (vs. 33.7% for Correa in 2013), 14.5% for Viteri, and 8.9% for Moncayo.

The CREO candidate notably won the city of Guaranda (43.6% indigenous) with 48.7% against 20.8% for Moreno, 12.3% for Moncayo, and 12% for Viteri. In Simiátug, the parish with the largest indigenous population (94.1%) in Bolívar, Lasso won 39.9% of the vote against 30.1% for Moreno, and 17.8% for Moncayo.

Chimborazo

Lasso swept the province of Chimborazo, the province with the largest (38%) indigenous population in the whole Sierra province and an important evangelical indigenous community. The CREO candidate won 42.1% against 27.6% for Moreno (vs. 42% for Correa in 2013), 12.8% for Viteri, and 8.6% for Moncayo.

Lasso got his best results in the indigenous-majority areas like Palmira (98.2% indigenous) – where he won his best result in the province with 55.6% against 27.4% for Moreno, and 7.7% for Moncayo –, Columbe (98.6% indigenous) – where he won 52% against 27.8% for Moreno – and Cebadas (92.5% indigenous), where he won 52% against 27.3% for Moreno and 9.3% for Moncayo.

Lasso also placed first in the urban parishes of Riobamba, the province’s capital and largest city, where he won 41.7% against 24.6% for Moreno, 18.11% for Viteri, and 8.2% for Moncayo.

Pesántez topped the poll in the parish of Sevilla (38.5%), located in his native canton of Alausí.

Cañar

In the province of Cañar, Moreno won 34.7% of the vote (vs. 50.4% for Correa in 2013) against 29.3% for Lasso, 17.8% for Viteri, and 10.7% for Moreno.

The indigenous vote appears there to be split between Lasso, Moreno, and to a lesser extent Moncayo. For example, in General Morales (80.6% indigenous), Moreno won 37.6% of the vote against 28.6% for Moncayo, and 22.7% for Lasso; in the neighboring parish of Suscal (76.7% indigenous), Lasso won 35.7% of the vote against 32.1% for Moreno, 16.7% for Moncayo, and 10.8% for Viteri.

Lasso topped the polls in Azogues, the province’s capital and largest city, winning the vote in the urban part of the canton with 36% against 27.9% for Moreno, 21.9% for Viteri, and 8.5% for Moncayo.

Azuay

In the province of Azuay, a traditional left-wing stronghold, Moreno won only 43.9% (vs. 62.3% for Correa in 2013) of the vote, against 32.3% for Lasso, and 9.7% for Moncayo.

Moreno performed a bit below provincial average in the urban part of the canton of Cuenca, winning there only 39.6% against 36.2% for Lasso, 9.8% for Moncayo, and 7.6% for Viteri.

Conversely, he won some of his best national results in the northeastern corner of the province, notably in the canton of Sevilla de Oro (71.8% against 16.9% for Lasso) and the canton of El Pan (63.7% against 18.6% for Lasso, and 9.3% for Moncayo); I have no explanations for that noticeable results.

Still in Azuay, Lasso won the cantons of Girón (50.2% against 30.7% for Moreno, and 7.1% for Moncayo) and Santa Isabel (36.9% against 35.4% for Moreno, 12.3% for Moncayo, and 9.5% for Viteri), where is located the controversial Quimsacocha mining project. In the parish of San Salvador de Cañaribamba (Santa Isabel), where the local population showed its opposition to the Quimsacocha project by rejecting it through an unofficial consulta, Lasso placed first with 35.7% of the vote, closely followed by Moncayo with 35.4%; Moreno placed only third with 16.6%.

Moreno performed above provincial average in the canton of Camilo Ponce Enríquez, where an important industry mining is to be found: he placed there first with 48.2% against 31.5% for Lasso, and 8.5% for Viteri.

He also won the parish of Nabón, the only parish in Azuay where the indigenous constitute a majority (52.3%) of the population: 49.9% against 26.7% for Lasso, and 13.1% for Moncayo.

Loja

The province of Loja has a very complicate political scene with tons of local provincial parties. . Lasso won there 42% of the vote against 33% for Moreno (vs. 45.3% for Correa in 2013), 10.6% for Viteri, and 8.9% for Moncayo.

Moreno got his worst provincial results in the Saraguro-populated areas (the Saraguros are an indigenous ranching community with a strong cultural identity), notably in San Lucas (80.5% indigenous) where he won a poor 15.5% against 44.1% for Lasso, and 30.7% for Moncayo; in San Pablo de Tenta (52.5% indigenous) where he won only 19.4% against 40.2% for Moncayo, and 29.4% for Lasso; and finally in the parish of Saraguro (63.6% indigenous) where he won 24.3% against 38% for Lasso, and 25.9% for Moncayo.

Moreno performed below provincial average in Loja, the province’s capital and largest city, winning in the urban part of the canton only 27.5% against 47.7% for Lasso, 11.8% for Viteri, and 7.6% for Moncayo. I can’t tell you more about the rest of the province.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #41 on: March 17, 2017, 05:02:36 PM »

Oriente

In the Oriente region, Lasso topped the polls with 43.4% of the vote; Moreno placed second with 31.9% (vs. 36.2% for Correa in 2013); Viteri placed third with 10.1%, and Moncayo placed fourth with 8.8%.

Sucumbíos

In the province of Sucumbíos, Moreno placed first with 39.5% of the vote (vs. 44.3% for Correa in 2013) against 27.2% for Lasso, 15.9% for Viteri, and 8.3% for Moncayo.

The province has the lowest share of indigenous population (13.4%) in the whole Oriente region. Additionally, the cultural identity of the local indigenous communities (Cofán, Siona, Secoya) has been severely weakened by influx of settlers from the highlands, oil drilling (with a dire environmental impact), and presence of evangelical missions (who by their work placed the indigenous communities in a state of economic dependence).

Moreno performed slightly below provincial average in Nueva Loja, the province’s capital, winning there 38.8% against 27.7% for Lasso, 17.6% for Viteri, and 7.7% for Moncayo. He won his second best provincial result in Puerto Rodríguez (68.9% indigenous), where he received 72.3% of the vote against 9.2% for Zuquilanda, and 8.4% for Lasso.

Napo

Lasso triumphed in the province of Napo, where he won 55.8% (his best provincial result) of the vote against a poor 24.9% for Moreno (vs. 25.4% for Correa in 2011).

There is there a clear divide between the south of the province, where Lasso captured the vote of the indigenous Napo-Kichwa community (who previously voted for the Gutiérrez brothers), and the north of the province, mostly inhabited by White/Mestizos settlers, where Moreno placed first.

For example, Lasso’s best results were in San Pablo de Ushpayacu (98.2% indigenous; the parish with the highest share of indigenous population in the whole province) where he won 64.5% of the vote against 18.9% for Moreno, and 8.9% for Moncayo; in Cotundo (89.6% indigenous) where he won 64.1% of the vote against 19.33% for Moreno, and 7% for Moncayo; and Pano (90.6% indigenous) where he won 63.9% of the vote against 16.7% for Moreno, and 7.5% for Moncayo.

Conversely, Moreno won his best national result in the parish of Oyacachi (92.6% indigenous, but the indigenous population there belongs to the Cayambe [Kichwa de la Sierra] ethnic group), where he won 88.6% of the vote. His other best provincial results are to be found in Linares (91.9% mestizo) where he won 70.1% of the vote against 19.6% for Lasso; in Gonzalo Díaz de Pineda (90.1% mestizo) where he won 52.2% of the vote against 27.4% for Lasso, and 9% for Moncayo; and in Papallacta (76.2% mestizo) where he won 51.2% of the vote against 28.4% for Lasso, and 8% for Viteri.

Orellana

In the province of Orellana, Lasso won 37.8% of the vote compared to 36% for Moreno (vs. 38.9% for Correa in 2013), 12% for Moncayo, and 8.3% for Viteri.

Moreno won here his best results in his native canton of Aguarico: he placed first in his birthplace, Nuevo Rocafuerte (64.6% indigenous) with 71.4% of the vote against 21.6% for Lasso; he also topped the poll in the neighboring parish of Yasuní (79% indigenous), winning there 72.3% of the vote against 21.2% for Lasso.

However, in that same canton of Aguarico, he did poorly in the parish of Cononaco (the only Ecuadorian parish with a Waorani [an indigenous ethnic group that was contacted only in the 1950s] majority) receiving there its second worst result in the province with 21.8% against 72.4% for Lasso. In brief, Lasso won the Waorani vote while the Napo-Kichwa and mestizo votes were evenly split between the CREO candidate and Moreno.

Pastaza

In the province of Pastaza, Lasso placed first with 47.8% of the vote against 26.4% for Moreno, 11.4% for Viteri, and 9.5% for Moncayo. Broadly speaking, Lasso won both the Canelos-Kichwa and the Shuar (a Jivaroan warlike ethnic group with a very strong cultural identity) votes, but also the white/mestizo vote.

For example, in Simón Bolívar (58.6% Shuar), Lasso won 63.9% of the vote against 18.5% for Moreno, and 9.9% for Moncayo; in Canelos (62% Kichwa), the CREO candidate topped the polls with 46.4% of the vote against 34.7% for Moreno, and 7.5% for Moncayo. In Puyo, the province’s capital (78.9% mestizo), Lasso won 46.8% of the vote against 24.9% for Moreno, 15.3% for Viteri, and 7.6% for Moncayo; in the parish of Mera (75.3% mestizo), the CREO candidate won 46.9% of the vote against 29% for Moreno, and 13.3% for Viteri.

Conversely, Moreno did very well in Río Corrientes (98.7% Achuar – another Jivaroan ethnic group), which overwhelmingly voted for Martha Roldós in 2009 and Acosta in 2013 and where he received 58.8% of the vote against 27.5% for Lasso; and in Río Tigre (41.2% Kichwa, 18.4% Zapara, 16.5% Shiwiar, 9% Achuar, 7.5% Andoa) where he won 42.4% of the vote against 35.4% for Lasso, and 15.4% for Moncayo.

The election was very disputed in the parish of Montalvo/Andoas (31.7% Achuar, 19.4% Kichwa, 19% Andoa, and 14.9% Shiwiar) where Lasso placed first with 31.5% of the vote against 30.3% for Moncayo, and 29.6% for Moreno.

Moncayo came first in the parish of Sarayacu (82% Kichwa, 12.6% Achuar), where he won 44.4% of the vote against 25.7% for Moreno, and 24.9% for Lasso; the local indigenous population of Sarayacu has successfully sued the Ecuadorian government before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights for having permitted oil drilling in the parish without asking the permission of its inhabitants.

Morona Santiago

In the province of Morona Santiago, Lasso won 53.8% of the vote against 29% for Moreno (vs. 33.5% for Correa in 2013), and 7.9% for Moncayo. The conservative candidate performed very well in the Shuar-inhabited areas, winning there his best national results: in Shimpis (93.6% Shuar), he won 80% against 11% for Moreno; in Tutinentza (89.6% Shuar), he triumphed with 78% against 12.3% for Moncayo, and a pitiful 6.5% for Moreno; in Macuma (95.7% Shuar), Lasso won 77.6% of the vote against 13.5% for Moncayo, and 5.6% for Moreno.

Conversely, Moreno won the parish of Huasaga (93.1% Achuar), the only parish in Morona Santiago with an Achuar majority; the AP candidate won there 49.2% of the vote against 32.4% for Lasso, and 16.9% for Moncayo. The parish was overwhelmingly won by Roldós in 2009 and Acosta in 2013.

Lasso performed below provincial average in Macas (78.6% mestizo), the province’s capital, winning there 44.3% of the vote against 35.7% for Moreno, 9% for Viteri, and 7.2% for Moncayo.

Zamora Chinchipe

Finally, in the province of Zamora Chinchipe, Lasso placed first with 46.4% of the vote against 29.7% for Moreno, 11.8% for Viteri, and 8.9% for Moncayo.

The conservative candidate came first in almost all parishes, winning notably the Saraguro-majority parishes of 28 de Mayo (where he won 38.3% of the vote against 28.7% for Moncayo, and 23.9% for Moreno) and La Paz (49.6% against 24.9% for Moreno, and 18.3% for Moncayo). Moncayo won Tutupali, the third remaining Saraguro-majority parish in Zamora Chinchipe, where he won 38.6% of the vote against 30.8% for Moreno, and 26.2% for Lasso.

Moncayo also won the parish of Nuevo Paraiso (54.2% Shuar), the only Shuar-majority parish in Zamora Chinchipe, where he won 39.3% against 33.7% for Lasso, and 20.2% for Moreno.

Lasso performed a bit above provincial average in Zamora (91.2% mestizo), the province’s capital, winning there 46.7% of the vote against 26.4% for Moreno, and 17.7% for Viteri.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #42 on: March 17, 2017, 07:12:47 PM »

Thanks for all this. Really impressive work!
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2017, 11:55:41 AM »

New Cedatos poll:

Guillermo Lasso 50.8%
Lenín Moreno 49.2%

18.2% of the voters are still undecided.
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« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2017, 12:59:23 PM »

Thank you, that was fascinating.

To what extent do you think the Correa government's various 'asistencialista' benefits to the poor can explain the results in the poorest region, like the non-urban parts of the Costa? Studies have shown correlations between beneficiaries of social benefits and pro-government voting in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia (and probably elsewhere) so I imagine it would be true in Ecuador as well.
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« Reply #45 on: March 24, 2017, 08:24:59 AM »

Thanks for all this. Really impressive work!
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« Reply #46 on: March 24, 2017, 08:27:48 AM »

Accusations being made about the first round

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https://panampost.com/david-unsworth/2017/03/07/ecuador-general-fired-correa-claims-vote-security-breached/
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #47 on: March 26, 2017, 03:31:28 PM »

BDH beneficiaries and Moreno voting in Manabí


Latest polls:

Cedatos
Lenín Moreno 52.4%
Guillermo Lasso 47.6%

Perfiles de Opinión

Lenín Moreno 57.6%
Guillermo Lasso 42.4%

Market

Lenín Moreno 52.1%

Guillermo Lasso 47.9%

Thank you, that was fascinating.

To what extent do you think the Correa government's various 'asistencialista' benefits to the poor can explain the results in the poorest region, like the non-urban parts of the Costa? Studies have shown correlations between beneficiaries of social benefits and pro-government voting in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia (and probably elsewhere) so I imagine it would be true in Ecuador as well.

It’s pretty hard to answer this question as I couldn’t find studies on the subject and as data on the geographical distribution of beneficiaries of social programs in Ecuador is patchy. Nevertheless, I have somehow find data on the number of beneficiaries of the Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) on provincial and cantonal levels for the year 2014 on this broken website. Unfortunately, the numbers provided by this website are contradicted by other sources.

The BDH is a minimal income for poorest households which was introduced in 1998 by President Mahuad to alleviate the effects of his "neoliberal" policies on poor mothers. The scale of the BDH was extended under Gutiérrez and its amount was later significantly raised by Correa from $15 to $50 per month. In most recent years, the government has tried, apparently with success, to reduce the number of BDH beneficiaries, to concentrate efforts on the poorest Ecuadorians.

Here is the full list of provinces by share of population benefiting from the BDH in 2014 (green = provinces won by Moreno; blue = provinces won by Lasso):

Bolívar 21.4%
Manabí 17.2%
Cotopaxi 16.9%
Los Ríos 16.7%
Chimborazo 16.4%
Loja 16.0%
Zamora Chinchipe 15.4%
Santa Elena 14.8%
Cañar 14.5%
Napo 14.4%
Orellana 14.0%
Santo Domingo 14.0%
Morona Santiago 13.9%
Carchi 13.9%
Sucumbíos 13.9%
Esmeraldas 13.5%
Imbabura 13.0%
Tungurahua 12.4%
Azuay 11.3%
El Oro 10.9%
Pastaza 10.8%
Guayas 10.7%
Pichincha 4.2%
Galápagos 2.4%

As you can see, there seems to be a weak correlation between the number of BDH beneficiaries and the Moreno voting. As I previously mentioned, these numbers are however contradicted by those mentioned by this  article, which indicates that the three provinces with the highest rate of BDH beneficiaries are Manabí (26.8%), Guayas (16.2%), and Orellana (12.5%). Unfortunately, the article doesn’t provide a source nor gives the numbers for the other provinces.

Still using the data from 2014, I have made maps to compare the share of population benefiting from the BDH in three provinces (Manabí, Chimborazo, Morona Santiago) and the Moreno voting on the cantonal level.







Like above, there seems to be no obvious correlation between beneficiaries of the BDH and voting for Moreno. I’m unable to provide satisfactory explanations to such a fact (maybe the fact that the program was started by Correa’s predecessors).

In relation to this, I found on this thesis an interesting chart showing evolution of poverty rate by province between 2006 and 2014.



Judging by these numbers, Moreno’s bad results in the central Sierra and Oriente can be partly attributed to the government’s inefficiency to effectively tackle poverty in these areas.

Hope this has helped a bit.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #48 on: March 28, 2017, 07:05:52 PM »

Map of the election for national assemblymen.



A map pretty similar to that of the presidential election and which reveals that many Pachakutik supporters (in the Saraguro- and Shuar-populated areas and in Cotopaxi), PSC supporters (in Guayaquil and in El Oro), and PSP supporters (in Napo) split their tickets and strategically voted for Lasso, the best-placed opposition candidate.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #49 on: April 02, 2017, 04:40:46 AM »

Today is Election Day!

To wait until the release of the first exit polls here two maps (more are to come):



Map of the AP vote change in presidential election between 2013 and 2017 Not 100% accurate due to the change in the boundaries of few parishes (notably, this year, the voters of two non-delineated areas vote in “special electoral zones” unlike four years ago when they voted in neighboring parishes) and creation of new parishes (in Machalá, Montecristi, and Durán).



Some of the AP’s biggest loses are to be found in the Galápagos archipelago, in the three largest cities of the country (Guayaquil, Quito, and to a lesser extent Cuenca) and its neighborhoods, in southeast Chimborazo, and in central Cotopaxi. Conversely, the AP resisted better in Manabí and Esmeraldas and even made inroads in the Oriente, notably in Aguaricos canton (Moreno’s birthplace) and in the Achuar- and Napo-Kichwa-populated areas.
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