2020 Nightmare Scenario...

[SCNCmod]

The Very Possible 269-269 tie...

5 Closest Trump-Win States in 2016
1. Michigan   0.22%
2. Pennsylvania   0.72%
3. Wisconsin    0.76%
4. Florida     1.20%
5. Nebraska 2nd Dist  2.24%  (Obama won NE2 by only 3K votes in 2008, Trump won it by only 6K votes)

In 2020... If Dems Flip: Michigan/ Penn/ Nebraska 2nd  (and Trump Holds Wisconsin & Florida.. which many people think are his 2 strongest states on this list)

.....The Result: 269-269

[SCNCmod]

If this happens... Dems will likely have a 2-3Million Popular Vote lead, yet Republicans will likely still control the House...

But (if I remember the rules correctly... & Correct me if I'm wrong) its still plausible that neither candidate end up being President, Because....

1) Each State gets 1 vote (the House delegation from each state votes on who gets the 1 vote)
2) A candidate needs 26 Votes

but...

Both Candidates may fail to reach 26 votes....
1)  The Republican majority is likely to be much smaller by 2020
                       and
2)  If States are tied (for example Wisconsin has 8 Hs members.. if 4D/ 4R ... it would be a tie, and therefore not be able to contribute a vote towards reaching 26 Votes needed).  In a fairly close house, if this happens in a few states, its possible neither candidate gets 26 State Votes.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, that would be a horrible scenario. Just imagine the Trumpster going totally nuts on twitter. But then he’s also commander-in-chief. I assume in that scenario the senate would have to elect a vice president who is then acting president for a while, until the house agrees on a candidate.

Interesting: You could go even a step further now and say we have 50-50 divided senate as well. That means Pence casts a tie-breaking vote that could make him acting president. Just wow.

[Frimaire]

And we thought 2000 was wild.

[RINO Tom]

Disturbingly possible, but I don't see a single type of backlash that causes Michigan to flip but also causes NE-2.

[Frimaire]

Wow, that would be a horrible scenario. Just imagine the Trumpster going totally nuts on twitter. But then he’s also commander-in-chief. I assume in that scenario the senate would have to elect a vice president who is then acting president for a while, until the house agrees on a candidate.

Interesting: You could go even a step further now and say we have 50-50 divided senate as well. That means Pence casts a tie-breaking vote that could make him acting president. Just wow.

Also, by the way, why is this kind of cluster even possible ? The Constitution is getting a bit old, maybe...

[The Other Castro]

There may also be several close house races that go to recounts, and could determine the majority party of congressional delegations in some states.

[SCNCmod]

A tie is especially likely if Arizona or Nebraska 2nd (or Maine-2nd) flip to Dems.

A few additional tie scenarios:

269-269  D's flip FL, AZ, NE 2nd  ... R's flip NH .....
(likely scenario with a Latino on the ticket?)

269-269 D's Flip AZ, WI, PA .... R's Flip NH

269-269  D's flip NC, MI, WI   R's flip NH

[Hillary Lost]

These are all very interesting scenarios.

[SCNCmod]

Another wrinkle... If Maine passes a law requiring tax returns in order to run....

Dems would not have to win Nebr- 2nd district to create a tie in many of these scenarios..

ie- If Dems flip AZ & FL (and trump is excluded from Maine)... 269-269

[Rjjr77]

Another wrinkle... If Maine passes a law requiring tax returns in order to run....

Dems would not have to win Nebr- 2nd district to create a tie in many of these scenarios..

ie- If Dems flip AZ & FL (and trump is excluded from Maine)... 269-269

That Maine law would get tossed by a federal judge so fast...

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin isn't gonna vote twice Republican, and won't with Trump again

[Vosem]

Disturbingly possible, but I don't see a single type of backlash that causes Michigan to flip but also causes NE-2.

NE-2 is trending Democratic pretty fast; a very small swing could cause it to switch, especially if it's targeted. It's a plausible map, but then again there've been plausible 269-269 maps for decades and it's never happened. This was briefly the polling average in 2008:

269-269. And this was frequently suggested in 2004, to the point that it was prominent pundit Larry Sabato's final prediction:

269-269. The fact that it has never happened is honestly more of a coincidence than anything else (and a recognition of the fact that 20th century presidential elections were more typically landslide victories than competitive, close-run contests).

Another wrinkle... If Maine passes a law requiring tax returns in order to run....

Dems would not have to win Nebr- 2nd district to create a tie in many of these scenarios..

ie- If Dems flip AZ & FL (and trump is excluded from Maine)... 269-269

That Maine law would get tossed by a federal judge so fast...

No, it wouldn't. States have the right to set qualifications to run for office, so long as they are not trying to burden any specific demographic. Such a law would be perfectly constitutional, and a Democratic trifecta could pass it anywhere. On the other hand, there is currently no Democratic trifecta in Maine, because Republicans currently control the state Senate and the Governorship, and I don't know how good the outlook is for establishing one in the 2018 elections, but a more solid Democratic state, like California or Maryland, could definitely do it, perhaps to try to hobble Trump in the popular vote (or force him to release his tax returns to be on the ballot in those states).

Though it would be a very entertaining election if Maine is taken over by Democrats in 2018, such a law is passed, and Trump loses 268-270, with Maine providing the decisive electoral vote to the new Democratic President.

Both Candidates may fail to reach 26 votes....
1)  The Republican majority is likely to be much smaller by 2020
                       and
2)  If States are tied (for example Wisconsin has 8 Hs members.. if 4D/ 4R ... it would be a tie, and therefore not be able to contribute a vote towards reaching 26 Votes needed).  In a fairly close house, if this happens in a few states, its possible neither candidate gets 26 State Votes.

In principle, the Republican candidate should reach 26 votes in the House even if they don't have House control; the state map is heavily tilted in their favor. In practice, because of a strong NeverTrump presence in Mountain West states, it was pretty clear that Trump would not actually be able to reach that number in 2016. If Trump has a unified Republican Party behind him in 2020 -- and it seems that he does at the moment, following his victories -- then hitting 26 in the House shouldn't be a hard ask. Romney would've been virtually guaranteed it, for instance. (Bush and McCain would've had to fight for it, but that was in the days when many southern states had Blue Dog representatives in otherwise very Republican seats who could've either backed the Democrat outright or abstained).

[Kingpoleon]

http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?t=27c320625e2cda0a1390650129da52fd