Obama's 2008 electoral margin if the financial crisis did not happen?

[uti2]

He still would've won, but McCain probably would have won Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Nebraska 02. In terms of the popular vote, Obama wins by around 3-4%.

A lot of people talk about Obama's numbers going down in his re-election bid, but Obama's 2008 win was inflated in the first place. People thought the financial collapse was a 1929-level event and wanted to punish the GOP at the time. Obama won by 4% in 2012, because his numbers went up from what they would've been had he won without the financial collapse, which would've been as close as 2000, 1-2%.

He would've had a good chance of losing OH too. His electoral barrier was NV, CO and IA thanks to his ground game in those states. Mccain actually had a very good chance to win if he could've pulled off NH. Palin was picked to help him with consolidating the base and picking off PUMAs in states like NH.

Palin was doing quite fine until the Couric interview about the bailouts, which Mccain himself was confused about supporting, but this again, happened only in the context of the financial crisis.

Mccain had better odds of beating Obama in 2008 than Romney ever did in 2012. Bush/Paulson screwed him over by trusting the UK with Barclays merger, they pulled out at the last minute.

[uti2]

Obama 285
McCain 253

No way NH flips for a Republican sooner than Ohio, if Mccain wins NH, then he's already won OH and the election.

[uti2]

He still would've won, but McCain probably would have won Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Nebraska 02. In terms of the popular vote, Obama wins by around 3-4%.

A lot of people talk about Obama's numbers going down in his re-election bid, but Obama's 2008 win was inflated in the first place. People thought the financial collapse was a 1929-level event and wanted to punish the GOP at the time. Obama won by 4% in 2012, because his numbers went up from what they would've been had he won without the financial collapse, which would've been as close as 2000, 1-2%.

He would've had a good chance of losing OH too. His electoral barrier was NV, CO and IA thanks to his ground game in those states. Mccain actually had a very good chance to win if he could've pulled off NH. Palin was picked to help him with consolidating the base and picking off PUMAs in states like NH.

Palin was doing quite fine until the Couric interview about the bailouts, which Mccain himself was confused about supporting, but this again, happened only in the context of the financial crisis.

Mccain had better odds of beating Obama in 2008 than Romney ever did in 2012. Bush/Paulson screwed him over by trusting the UK with Barclays merger, they pulled out at the last minute.

Given Bush's dismal approval rating of around 25%, McCain being a terrible campaigner, the Palin debacle, and a charismatic likable black presidential nominee, Obama would have won comfortably even without the financial crisis. No way the margin would have been similar to 2000.

How would Romney have campaigned in the middle of a financial collapse? Mccain did as well as any republican could have possibly done, Romney would've probably lost Montana and a number of additional states, and it would've been a genuine landslide defeat. As I talked about with Palin, she was doing fine until the Couric interview, which was about the bailouts. Mccain in 2008 before the financial crisis had far better odds than Romney did in 2012, if you compare how Mccain was polling pre-Lehman, to how Romney polled overall v. Obama, it's clear. Mccain also polled better than Romney even in 2008, see the 08 Romney v Obama polls. Part of the reason Mccain did well is because he was seen as a 'maverick', not a generic republican. he had large appeal with independents.

[uti2]

By the way, I don't know why this is so hard to believe, there's a reason why Obama was the only president since FDR to have been re-elected with a lower margin of victory. People thought Obama was going to be FDR in 2008 after the financial crisis. His 2008 win has largely inflated.