A more interesting question, What if the Financial crisis that happened in 08 yet the job losses continued until 09. Happened in 07 and 08?
What would Obama's margin be by then when the depth of the recession happened around election year than a year after?
Would 2010 have then been better for Democrats? Under this scenario, the jobs would have started coming back in early 2009 rather than early 2010, meaning that the unemployment rate would have been dropping for over a year and a half by November 2010 and Dems could have pointed to a year and a half of sustained recovery.
However, Republicans and talk would still have been able to. whip up opposition to Dems on other issues like healthcare and government spending. Republicans are just too damn good at the game.
Dream scenario for Democrats/Nightmare scenario for Republicans...the financial crisis happens in September 2007 instead. Unemployment peaks right around Election Day 2008, and it's clearly dropping by Election Day 2010 (whereas in the real timeline, unemployment didn't drop much in 2010..it was still almost 10 percent when Dems lost the House).
