2024: Is Wyoming a blue state yet?

[Blackacre]

It could theoretically have the same thing happen to it as Colorado, and since it's a tiny state, a large amount of people coming into it and forming a metropolitan area would change it pretty dramatically. That would turn it into either a CO-lite or CO on steroids, making it a (non-atlas) blue state.

However, if Wyoming were to become blue, it would be in isolation of national swings. Perhaps the same thing would be happening in Montana or Idaho? And even then, it's unlikely as all hell

[Blackacre]

The parties didn't flip, but they did reshuffle. Parties are the sum of the pieces of their coalitions.

The GOP (waayy oversimplifying) was the party of northern liberals, business interests, what we would now call evangelicals, and black people.

The Democratic Party was the party of immigrants, white southerners, poor rural farmers/populists, etc.

The parties changed over time because, say, white southerners and rural westerners traded places with african-americans and northern liberals. But the GOP still has business interests in its coalition, and the Democrats still have immigrant groups in theirs. (though the ethnicities have changed)

I doubt Lincoln would comfortably slot into either modern party because his party pulled from both of what make up the modern parties while shunning others. Same goes for Jackson.

[Blackacre]

Trump got 70-71% there?  Yea it'll swing 20 points in 2 cycles and be blue.

The topic was obviously mocking the left for making sweeping predictions of landslides. I tried to salvage it with a way that Wyoming might drastically change, in isolation of the rest of the nation. And that moved to talking about how the parties have changed over time because there is a possible configuration of the Democratic Party that would win that state. What exactly are you contributing here?

The parties didn't flip, but they did reshuffle. Parties are the sum of the pieces of their coalitions.

The GOP (waayy oversimplifying) was the party of northern liberals, business interests, what we would now call evangelicals, and black people.

The Democratic Party was the party of immigrants, white southerners, poor rural farmers/populists, etc.

The parties changed over time because, say, white southerners and rural westerners traded places with african-americans and northern liberals. But the GOP still has business interests in its coalition, and the Democrats still have immigrant groups in theirs. (though the ethnicities have changed)

I doubt Lincoln would comfortably slot into either modern party because his party pulled from both of what make up the modern parties while shunning others. Same goes for Jackson.

As you said, this is oversimplified but definitely fair.

Thanks. It does piss me off a little when sweeping generalisations of past party behaviour are made, usually to claim a universally beloved President for one side or the other.

Having said that, I do have a question. At what point do you think you can say that every president since X would feel completely at home in one of the modern political parties? I'm tempted to say Harding but it could be Taft. (not 100% sure about Wilson)

[Blackacre]

Trump got 70-71% there?  Yea it'll swing 20 points in 2 cycles and be blue.

The topic was obviously mocking the left for making sweeping predictions of landslides. I tried to salvage it with a way that Wyoming might drastically change, in isolation of the rest of the nation. And that moved to talking about how the parties have changed over time because there is a possible configuration of the Democratic Party that would win that state. What exactly are you contributing here?

The parties didn't flip, but they did reshuffle. Parties are the sum of the pieces of their coalitions.

The GOP (waayy oversimplifying) was the party of northern liberals, business interests, what we would now call evangelicals, and black people.

The Democratic Party was the party of immigrants, white southerners, poor rural farmers/populists, etc.

The parties changed over time because, say, white southerners and rural westerners traded places with african-americans and northern liberals. But the GOP still has business interests in its coalition, and the Democrats still have immigrant groups in theirs. (though the ethnicities have changed)

I doubt Lincoln would comfortably slot into either modern party because his party pulled from both of what make up the modern parties while shunning others. Same goes for Jackson.

As you said, this is oversimplified but definitely fair.

Thanks. It does piss me off a little when sweeping generalisations of past party behaviour are made, usually to claim a universally beloved President for one side or the other.

Having said that, I do have a question. At what point do you think you can say that every president since X would feel completely at home in one of the modern political parties? I'm tempted to say Harding but it could be Taft. (not 100% sure about Wilson)

That's very hard to say.  Given that all (or nearly all) of them are *politicians*, I'm inclined to believe they would adapt to the political landscape, similar to what we saw with someone like Zel Miller (who went from being a fiery Southern liberal to a true centrist, all to save his own ass as his state changed its political philosophy).  I think it's more or less certain that every President after Hoover would absolutely still be in the party they were in, as people who become increasingly at odds with their party tend to stay in it, as switching is often a bad look.  Some would argue the switch from Romney to Trump was damn near insane for four years, yet hardly any Republicans have become Democrats; parties change, and they all knew that coming in.

Regarding Wilson, I think he'd be a Democrat today.  While his racism is out of line with today's Democratic Party, it was perfectly compatible with not just being a Democrat but being a progressive in his day, and I believe his basic outlook on the world and how society should be crafted has a lot more in common with many modern liberals than it does with any modern conservatives.

Would Harding and Coolidge be comfortable in the modern Republican Party then or is there something about them that I don't see? Because if they are then the X in "every president since X would be comfortable (to some extent) in one of the modern political parties" would be Wilson, or more likely, Taft.