Noticed uptick in third party voting this cycle
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  Noticed uptick in third party voting this cycle
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Author Topic: Noticed uptick in third party voting this cycle  (Read 1515 times)
jman123
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« on: January 07, 2017, 09:31:00 PM »

I'm not sure why there was an uptick in third party votes this year. On 2012 my precinct had just a handful of third party votes while in 2016 it was noticeable
  My precinct went from 15 votes for Johnson and 2 for Stein in 2012 to 60 votes for Johnson and 24 votes for Stein. What's the explanation. Nationwide was a similar trend. Who were the Johnson and Stein voters demographics this past cycle?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2017, 11:29:15 PM »

You should check out Oregon's numbers including both 3rd Party and Write-Ins.....

I believe it's the highest since Perot '92, but someone with access to Dave's database could pull that up quicker than myself....

It actually looks like Oregon's 3rd Party voting is higher than most states in the Union....

I can't speak for the rest of the country, but I am still shocked seeing some of the numbers from individual cities/precincts throughout the state.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2017, 12:33:12 AM »

They were votes against the cartoon villains the major parties decided to nominate.

Dear major parties, next time give us more sophisticated villains like Obama and Romney.
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2017, 01:30:13 AM »

It was mostly deranged progressives angry over the "rigged" primary. And it didn't hurt that Johnson was saying "I agree with Sanders 73% of the time" at every turn. There are a few #NeverTrump votes mixed in too, but most of those people either held their nose for Clinton or proved to have no spine by the end and voted Trump anyway.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2017, 02:20:06 AM »

It was mostly deranged progressives angry over the "rigged" primary. And it didn't hurt that Johnson was saying "I agree with Sanders 73% of the time" at every turn. There are a few #NeverTrump votes mixed in too, but most of those people either held their nose for Clinton or proved to have no spine by the end and voted Trump anyway.

Wulfric/ Dwarven Dragon:

Although I agree with your general position that in the "Left Coast" of America  that there was a significant defection to the Left (Bernie Write-Ins/ Greens/ Libertarian voters).... for example something like 12-14% of Oregonians essentially went 3rd Party/ Write-Ins.....I'm still not totally bought on the argument about how states in the Upper Midwest/ New England/ Pennsylvania voted in terms of minor party candidates.

Places like Utah and Idaho are obvious exceptions....

Honestly, I would like to see some numbers from the Midwest/South/Central Atlantic/New England states before jumping to a conclusion mat... Smiley

Not so sure about your statement regarding the Johnson/Sanders overlap, although certainly I had some Millennials in my family that were talking about going that direction.

Almost seems like you're trying to call out Sanders supporters for Clinton losing, even though based on many of your posts and the mutual threads from back in the '16 primaries that we both posted on, I don't believe that to be the case.   Smiley

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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2017, 12:57:44 PM »

They were votes against the cartoon villains the major parties decided to nominate.

Dear major parties, next time give us more sophisticated villains like Obama and Romney.

I'm not convinced anyone or anything ever meets your standards. At the end of a Sanders presidency, you'd be calling him a villain too.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2017, 01:13:47 PM »

The answer is simple.  Trump and Clinton were terrible candidates (and people).
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2017, 01:32:13 PM »

I think both party's national coalitions are in fray right now.   Neither side has a national majority.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2017, 01:38:43 PM »

Of course, part of it is that people are more likely to vote 3rd party when they know who the 3rd party candidates are, and this year Johnson and Stein got a lot more media attention than they did in 2012, and were even included as options in almost every major poll from about ~May or so onwards.

As for *why* the 3rd party candidates got more coverage this time....sure, it's because people didn't like the major party candidates very much.  But I actually think it's more on Trump than it is on Clinton.  The Republicans who were looking to find an alternative to the major party choices were heavily overrepresented among political/media elites, which lies in stark contrast to the Dems dissatisfied with Clinton.  There were plenty of current and former Republican members of Congress, for example, who refused to vote for Trump, who then publicly deliberated about who they might vote for instead.  This resulted in the media paying more attention to who the alternative choices might be.  Whereas the #NeverClinton Dems were just ordinary voters, not political elites.

So I actually wonder, if the GOP had nominated a more "normal" Republican like Rubio, then would Johnson and Stein have actually gotten that much coverage?  Would pollsters have included them as options in polls?
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MarkD
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2017, 01:56:41 PM »

They were votes against the cartoon villains the major parties decided to nominate.

Dear major parties, next time give us more sophisticated villains like Obama and Romney.

I'm not convinced anyone or anything ever meets your standards. At the end of a Sanders presidency, you'd be calling him a villain too.

Whatever it is you think of him and his standards, I completely agree with what he said.
Signed, a McMullin voter ... with extremely high and very specific expectations.
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« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2017, 05:04:46 PM »

Of course, part of it is that people are more likely to vote 3rd party when they know who the 3rd party candidates are, and this year Johnson and Stein got a lot more media attention than they did in 2012, and were even included as options in almost every major poll from about ~May or so onwards.

As for *why* the 3rd party candidates got more coverage this time....sure, it's because people didn't like the major party candidates very much.  But I actually think it's more on Trump than it is on Clinton.  The Republicans who were looking to find an alternative to the major party choices were heavily overrepresented among political/media elites, which lies in stark contrast to the Dems dissatisfied with Clinton.  There were plenty of current and former Republican members of Congress, for example, who refused to vote for Trump, who then publicly deliberated about who they might vote for instead.  This resulted in the media paying more attention to who the alternative choices might be.  Whereas the #NeverClinton Dems were just ordinary voters, not political elites.

So I actually wonder, if the GOP had nominated a more "normal" Republican like Rubio, then would Johnson and Stein have actually gotten that much coverage?  Would pollsters have included them as options in polls?


Yes, it's true that the fact that the third parties got more coverage is more on Trump than Clinton, but when election day actually came around third parties took more votes from typical dem constituencies than they did from typical rep constituencies. Disappointed republicans came home far more in the final weeks than disappointed democrats did. I will also note that while most of the #NEVERTRUMP politicians stuck to their guns and refused to vote Trump to the end, they were mostly writing in random names or voting for Clinton - not voting for actual third party candidates. Politicians like Rigell (who voted Johnson) were the exception among NeverTrumpers, not the rule.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2017, 06:54:35 PM »

Whatever it is you think of him and his standards, I completely agree with what he said.
Signed, a McMullin voter ... with extremely high and very specific expectations.

Mine was very much a jfern-specific post.

As for what he said - I only disagree with the Obama/Romney part. I'm not sure I'd call Obama a villain. What exactly are we talking about? Something like the whistleblower prosecutions and expanded surveillance state? If so, I vehemently disagree with those actions but at the same time it seems more like he is trying to accomplish something relatively non-evil and has a much different idea of what is appropriate in regards to the NSA/etc. He just doesn't strike me as the villain type, and no, I don't mean in that in the sense that I just like his personality/etc and has blinded me or whatever.

At any rate, I didn't intend to discuss this with jfern. He's nothing but a black hole.
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2017, 09:06:04 PM »

That was clear from the polling and that Trump and Clinton were historically unpopular. Te only surprise to me was that third parties didn't do better.
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2017, 09:52:21 PM »

They were votes against the cartoon villains the major parties decided to nominate.

Dear major parties, next time give us more sophisticated villains like Obama and Romney.

I'm not convinced anyone or anything ever meets your standards. At the end of a Sanders presidency, you'd be calling him a villain too.

Of course any President would sometimes disappoint me, but Bernie wouldn't be a villain.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2017, 11:07:16 PM »

Yes, it's true that the fact that the third parties got more coverage is more on Trump than Clinton, but when election day actually came around third parties took more votes from typical dem constituencies than they did from typical rep constituencies. Disappointed republicans came home far more in the final weeks than disappointed democrats did.

I’d say it’s a bit more complicated than that.  Did the 3rd party candidates actually draw more support from Democrats than Republicans?  Well, the exit poll says it was about the same, though a tick more from Republicans than Dems:

12% of Independents voted 3rd party, if we believe the exit poll
4% of Republicans voted 3rd party, if we believe the exit poll
3% of Democrats voted 3rd party, if we believe the exit poll

Of course, party ID is fungible.  People might just not be calling themselves Democrats or Republicans when they vote 3rd party, even if they normally vote one of the two major parties.  But the national House exit poll also has 5% of respondents saying they wouldn’t have voted for president at all if Clinton and Trump were the only options (and presumably those folks make up the bulk of 3rd party voters), and the poll has 49% of this group voting for the Republican in their House race, compared to 41% for the Democrat.

But you’re right that the 3rd party vote skewed heavily towards the young.  If you look at some of the pre-election polling that dug into this question more deeply though (e.g., some of the Quinnipiac polling) it looked like the 3rd party support was being drawn more or less evenly from both parties, but the Republicans defecting to 3rd parties were more or less spread out evenly across all demographics, whereas the Democrats defecting to 3rd parties skewed very heavily towards the young.  Which means that the overall average age of 3rd party voters skewed pretty young.  That may be what happened in the election, though the exit poll frustratingly doesn’t give us all of the data points necessary to clear it up.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2017, 02:37:19 PM »

2012 third parties/write-ins captured 1.85% of the vote, in 2016 due in large part to the heavily disliked major party candidates,  third parties/write-ins jumped to 6%.
States with >10% third party/write in votes were:

UT   27.0%  Mormon McMullin home state
ID   13.2%
VT   13.1%  Bernie Sanders write-ins
AK  12.2%  well its Alaska
WA  11.9%
NM 11.7%  Gary Johnson home state
OR  10.8%
WY  10.0%

An pretty even split between Red (3 states) and Blue (4 states)
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