Prediction Maps for 2006 Races…

[MasterJedi]

I'm surprised by your map having Doyle stay in his seat. In the last election he won with 45% of the vote and Ed Thomas (a libertarian) got 10% of the vote. Most of those libertarian votes will go to the GOP nominee, especially if Scott Walker gets the nomination.

[MasterJedi]

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.

Wisconsin has Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive. Last election he won 58% of Milwaukee County, Doyle won less to get his 45% of the vote for his win. If Walker gets past the primaries he can easily defeat Doyle.

[MasterJedi]

Doyle isn't as vulnerable as some like to think.
He will carry Dane and Milwaukee counties big time.

Mark Green won't automatically win, Walker has a really good chance because he's liked down here in southeastern Wisconsin. And if Walker gets the nomination Doyle will have to fight a lot harder for Milwaukee County. Walker run re-election and won a higher percentage of the vote in the county than Doyle did when he became Governor. And so far for the last 3 months the highest Doyle has gotten in the polls is 46% and the lowest 41%.  If it continues on the way it is now he'll either stay the same (43% currently) or go down in the polls. If he goes down he'll have to fight hard seeing as how he only won 45% (or was it 46%) of the vote when he won in the first place. Plus there was the 10% that voted Libertarian in the last election because of how dirty it was, at least 9% will be coming back to vote for either the Democrat of the Republican. They won't stick with Ed Thompson.