|           
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2020, 02:04:42 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Prediction Maps for 2006 Races…
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: Prediction Maps for 2006 Races…  (Read 3292 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2005, 04:48:11 pm »


Nussle seems to be a very strong candidate and Vilsack being unpopular doesn't help the Democrats, either.
Logged
TæxasGurl
texasgurl24
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,817
Japan


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -6.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2005, 05:02:24 pm »

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.



Wisconsin has Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive. Last election he won 58% of Milwaukee County, Doyle won less to get his 45% of the vote for his win. If Walker gets past the primaries he can easily defeat Doyle.
Wishful thinking.
Logged
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,241


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2005, 05:18:34 pm »

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.



Wisconsin has Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive. Last election he won 58% of Milwaukee County, Doyle won less to get his 45% of the vote for his win. If Walker gets past the primaries he can easily defeat Doyle.
Wishful thinking.

Out of interest what is the situation in Wisconsin? I have to confess I’m pretty ignorant, I can imagine that Doyle will have to fight for re-election, but as to how seriously he’s threatened, the quality of the potential GOP candidates, the mood across the state, etc… I really don’t know; care to fill me, and anyone else who’s in the dark, in?       
Logged
Sarnstrom
sarnstrom54014
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: July 20, 2005, 05:50:19 pm »

I think the following seats will switch:

Dem->Rep:  VA, IA, IL
Rep->Dem: NY, MD, MA, CA, OH

I think Roy Moore will challenge Riley and keep the Alabama seat red (barely)

I think Murkowski is a weak incumbent in Alaska, but the Democratic party up there is just plain awful.

I haven't looked into the Wisconsin race enough to get a feel for it.

Michigan is also a very viable pick-up for the Republicans if they can find a good challenger.

Colorado also leans/slight Democrat if Salazar retires from the Senate to run for Governor, but I think as a freshman governor, he won't do that.

Everything else should remain the same.

Who do the Republicans have in Illinois that can win?  I know Blagojevich is unpopular, but unless the GOP recruits someone from Congress, I don't see how they defeat him.  I think Wisconsin and Michigan are more or less the same situation.



Wisconsin has Scott Walker, Milwaukee County Executive. Last election he won 58% of Milwaukee County, Doyle won less to get his 45% of the vote for his win. If Walker gets past the primaries he can easily defeat Doyle.
Wishful thinking.

Out of interest what is the situation in Wisconsin? I have to confess I’m pretty ignorant, I can imagine that Doyle will have to fight for re-election, but as to how seriously he’s threatened, the quality of the potential GOP candidates, the mood across the state, etc… I really don’t know; care to fill me, and anyone else who’s in the dark, in?       
Doyle isn't going anywhere. First off, Mark Green will beat Scott Walker in the primary easily. So the general will have Doyle vs Green, and Doyle will likely win by 53-47 or 54-46.
Logged
TæxasGurl
texasgurl24
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,817
Japan


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -6.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: July 20, 2005, 08:29:51 pm »

Doyle isn't as vulnerable as some like to think.
He will carry Dane and Milwaukee counties big time.
Logged
nini2287
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,624


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: July 20, 2005, 10:41:27 pm »

Hickenlooper and Salazar could win it if they ran and Knowles could win it if he ran.  All three are unlikely to run though.

I could see Hick going for it, but Ken Salazar seems less likely.  With 4 years left in his Senate term, and no tough challengers on the horizon for 2010, I doubt he would give it all up for a chance to be Governor.  How about John Salazar, though?

Is Knowles eligible to run again after already serving 2 terms?

I asked AKSaber once and I think he said Knowles is ineligible to run again.
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,447
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: July 21, 2005, 07:08:34 am »

Doyle isn't as vulnerable as some like to think.
He will carry Dane and Milwaukee counties big time.

Mark Green won't automatically win, Walker has a really good chance because he's liked down here in southeastern Wisconsin. And if Walker gets the nomination Doyle will have to fight a lot harder for Milwaukee County. Walker run re-election and won a higher percentage of the vote in the county than Doyle did when he became Governor. And so far for the last 3 months the highest Doyle has gotten in the polls is 46% and the lowest 41%.  If it continues on the way it is now he'll either stay the same (43% currently) or go down in the polls. If he goes down he'll have to fight hard seeing as how he only won 45% (or was it 46%) of the vote when he won in the first place. Plus there was the 10% that voted Libertarian in the last election because of how dirty it was, at least 9% will be coming back to vote for either the Democrat of the Republican. They won't stick with Ed Thompson.
Logged
AkSaber
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2005, 05:05:34 pm »

I don't think Murkowski is in such bad shape as everyone seems to think. His reelection isn't a sure-thing, but it is not impossible.

He wanted tax hikes and some benefit cuts which the public didn't like too much. He also did some odd things. Like when he was in the middle of cutting spending to save the economy, he wanted to trade-in the governor's prop-propelled plane for a jet. Now most thought it was unnecessary, especially when his administration was tough on spending.

85% of the Alaska state economy comes from oil. With the high price of oil, it means good times for Alaska. Smiley The budget deficit has gotten smaller. The state has more money to spend, and Murkowski has even proposed an increase in education spending. So I think he is not as in trouble as some may think, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 24, 2005, 01:36:04 pm »

I don't think Murkowski is in such bad shape as everyone seems to think. His reelection isn't a sure-thing, but it is not impossible.

He wanted tax hikes and some benefit cuts which the public didn't like too much. He also did some odd things. Like
appointing his daughter to the Senate. Wink
Logged
tarheel-leftist85
krustytheklown
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2005, 05:56:32 pm »

I don't think Murkowski is in such bad shape as everyone seems to think. His reelection isn't a sure-thing, but it is not impossible.

He wanted tax hikes and some benefit cuts which the public didn't like too much. He also did some odd things. Like
appointing his daughter to the Senate. Wink
Nepotism:  It's a good thing Wink
Logged
Storebought
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,989
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 24, 2005, 06:12:38 pm »

I don't think Murkowski is in such bad shape as everyone seems to think. His reelection isn't a sure-thing, but it is not impossible.

He wanted tax hikes and some benefit cuts which the public didn't like too much. He also did some odd things. Like
appointing his daughter to the Senate. Wink

But she was elected in her own right against a *strong* challenger. She's her own gal now (as is The Other Woman, D-NY)
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,626
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 30, 2005, 10:29:01 am »

Haven't been paying much attention, so I wouldn't even hazzard a guess at making any predictions just yet

Even where incumbents have low approval ratings, there's still time for them to bounce back. For some poor buggers, like Taft though I think the writing's on the wall - but I wouldn't be surprised if the gimmick (yes, Arnold - you can't really expect me to complementary after that infantile slur of his - "Don't be economic girlie men" - at the RNC) over in California turns out to be some kind of political Houdini

Still, I'd like to think Democrats will be a majority Wink come 2006

Dave
Logged
nini2287
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,624


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 31, 2005, 02:09:20 am »

Haven't been paying much attention, so I wouldn't even hazzard a guess at making any predictions just yet

Even where incumbents have low approval ratings, there's still time for them to bounce back. For some poor buggers, like Taft though I think the writing's on the wall - but I wouldn't be surprised if the gimmick (yes, Arnold - you can't really expect me to complementary after that infantile slur of his - "Don't be economic girlie men" - at the RNC) over in California turns out to be some kind of political Houdini

Still, I'd like to think Democrats will be a majority Wink come 2006

Dave

Taft is barred from seeking a third term so he isn't running again.  Yeah the Democrats have the best chance of taking the majority in something w/Governorships (good chances in AL, AK (weaker), AR, CA, CO, FL (weaker), GA (weaker), KY (2007, weaker), MD, MA,  MS (2007, weaker), NY, OH while the GOP pickup chances are in IL, IA, ME (weaker), MI (weaker), NH (weaker), OK (if Watts runs), OR (weaker), PA, WI)
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,626
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: August 01, 2005, 05:16:23 am »

Taft is barred from seeking a third term so he isn't running again

Probably just as well then. Only time will tell if Taft's dire ratings affect the chances of the GOP candidate

Dave
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines