VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Yank2133]

I do like the idea that Democratic voters are suddenly going to drop their support for Medicare for All and the like solely because a centrist won an election somewhere.

Yeah, it is bull**** concern trolling from a GOP hack.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Presented for what it's worth (which I think is not much, given the number of undecided):

Hampton U, Oct 18-22, 750 RV

Gillespie (R) 41%
Northam (D) 33%
Don't know/Refused 27%

They also have Trump approval at 39/56.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gun-control-group-everytown-pours-another-700k-into-virginia-elections/2017/10/23/4e7a07b8-b781-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html

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I wish they would spend less on mailers. I don't think those are worth the money, at least if there is any chance most of their targeted voters have gotten one already. Better to plow that money into other GOTV efforts.

[erſatz-york]

T I T A N I U M

R

[henster]

Gillespie out with another statues ad 'I'll keep 'em up' he says, I'm surprised he didn't sport a Southern accent when saying it.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updated the Sabato map to include races only considered competitive by DDHQ/Cook. This is what I'll be using for reference on election night.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wason Center Tracking poll, Oct 27

Northam (D) 50  (+2)
Gillespie (R) 43   (-1)
Hyra (L) 3 (nc)

Previous results from this poll:

Oct 17: Northam 48-44
Oct 9: Northam 49-42
Sep 25: Northam 47-41

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a senior adviser to Rand Paul:

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[SoLongAtlas]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

[Holmes]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

So whites are more inclined to vote for someone when it's pointed out that they're racist?

[Devout Centrist]

It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.

[IceSpear]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

Uh...hasn't Gillespie's entire campaign been identity politics? The double standard is insane. Pandering to resentful whites is no less identity politics than pandering to minorities.

[SoLongAtlas]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

Uh...hasn't Gillespie's entire campaign been identity politics? The double standard is insane. Pandering to resentful whites is no less identity politics than pandering to minorities.

Which is what I'm pointing out. He shouldn't have authorized that mailer and it will be seen as a low road tactic and cause him to lose votes.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

New Gillespie ad lumps Northam with sex offenders.

Dumb thing to go out on, Ed.

[Dr. Arch]

New Gillespie ad lumps Northam with sex offenders.

Dumb thing to go out on, Ed.

A "moderate" in today's Republican party.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.

[KingSweden]

It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

New Gillespie ad lumps Northam with sex offenders.

Dumb thing to go out on, Ed.

A "moderate" in today's Republican party.

Interestingly, there's another ad making the rounds which features a "mother" claiming she can't vote for Ralph Northam because he "made it easy for felons to get guns."

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Things are certainly looking up for Gillespie. Northam is at his smallest RCP average lead of the entire campaign - 2.8%. A simple average of the last 5 polls is either Northam +3.4 or Northam +3.6 depending on whether you skip over Hampton and Quinnipiac. All of these numbers are not good for Northam because they are not big enough to accommodate a polling error of ~4% too D, which is what we saw in 2013. The race stays in my Lean D column for now as I try not to issue a Toss-Up rating this close to the election. But if one of these averages slips below Northam +2 (meaning it cannot even withstand half of the 2013 error), it may merit a move to Lean R.

[Holmes]

I don't see the rationale behind moving a race to lean R if the Democrat has an average of +2.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't see the rationale behind moving a race to lean R if the Democrat has an average of +2.

1. I expect that the polling averages will be off in favor of Gillespie, just as they were off in favor of Cuccinelli in 2013, though not sure exactly how much error will exist.

2. Late deciders broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016.

3. The trend in the last few polls of any race tends to be exacerbated on election day. So far, the late trend is against Northam, although I acknowledge that could change.

[BudgieForce]

While averaging is helpful, polling is so extreme in both directions right now that I'd say it's better to ignore the average and take a side.

[Gass3268]

RCP put a partisan poll in their average? I thought they didn't as a rule? Of course they pick the one without the libertarian candidate.

[Panhandle Progressive]

The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

[SoLongAtlas]

The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

If PW and Fairfax vote. Historically, gubernatorial turnout here is like 40%. VB, even as Northam's home base, is a conservative area. If downstate comes out and if turnout is diluted in NoVA, it will be a closer race than people think.