How many states would Kanye West win in 2020?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Explain. I have him winning 5 states (California, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, and Hawaii, along with D.C.)

[Xing]

In a primary or a general election?

[Senator-elect Spark]

In a primary or a general election?

Both.

[The Other Castro]

I presume he would run as an Independent, so none.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I presume he would run as an Independent, so none.

For theoretical purposes, say he runs as a Democrat and is able to win the nomination.

[Tintrlvr]

Explain. I have him winning 5 states (California, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, and Hawaii, along with D.C.)

I voted zero (but he still wins DC). However, I agree with your top five states most likely to vote for Kanye in a general election, which are also probably the only states where he has even some chance of winning unless Trump is wildly unpopular.

[Xing]

In a primary, it depends on the mood of the Democrats, as well as who else is running. If they can rally around a progressive, or a center-left candidate who is at least palatable to the progressive wing of the party, he probably won't get very far, and won't win any states (or possibly 1-3 early caucus states.) If the field is fractured, and there's a lot of anger among Democratic voters, and they want to give the establishment a middle finger, he could win many contests, and it's anyone's guess which ones he might win. I'd imagine the industrial parts of the Midwest, as well as Appalachia will be the toughest regions for him.

In a general election, it would come down to how popular Trump is. If Trump's approval ratings are at least decent (45% or higher), he'd win easily, though several states would never vote for him (the ones you mentioned as well as Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, ME-01, and I still doubt Connecticut or Rhode Island would go Republican.) If Trump is quite unpopular, but not extremely so (~40% approval rating), it'd probably be a close race, with the map looking similar to how it did this year. If Trump's approval rating is more like 30% or lower, then Kanye probably wins, with something like 10-15% of all voters voting third party.

Nominating Kanye would be a terrible move for Democrats, and I could never stomach voting for someone like him, but considering how polarized this country is, a lot of people still would, especially if he ended up being the only alternative to Trump. The idea of him winning seems absurd, and it's certainly not likely, but those saying that Kanye has no chance in a primary or general election clearly learned nothing last year.

[Senator-elect Spark]

In a primary, it depends on the mood of the Democrats, as well as who else is running. If they can rally around a progressive, or a center-left candidate who is at least palatable to the progressive wing of the party, he probably won't get very far, and won't win any states (or possibly 1-3 early caucus states.) If the field is fractured, and there's a lot of anger among Democratic voters, and they want to give the establishment a middle finger, he could win many contests, and it's anyone's guess which ones he might win. I'd imagine the industrial parts of the Midwest, as well as Appalachia will be the toughest regions for him.

In a general election, it would come down to how popular Trump is. If Trump's approval ratings are at least decent (45% or higher), he'd win easily, though several states would never vote for him (the ones you mentioned as well as Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, ME-01, and I still doubt Connecticut or Rhode Island would go Republican.) If Trump is quite unpopular, but not extremely so (~40% approval rating), it'd probably be a close race, with the map looking similar to how it did this year. If Trump's approval rating is more like 30% or lower, then Kanye probably wins, with something like 10-15% of all voters voting third party.

Nominating Kanye would be a terrible move for Democrats, and I could never stomach voting for someone like him, but considering how polarized this country is, a lot of people still would, especially if he ended up being the only alternative to Trump. The idea of him winning seems absurd, and it's certainly not likely, but those saying that Kanye has no chance in a primary or general election clearly learned nothing last year.

I absolutely agree with you for once. I think if Trump is popular he can pull off NY, ME-01, CT, RI, & IL would be toss-up.

[Figueira]

15+, outside chance of 10-15. If Kanye actually wins the nomination, don't underestimate him.

[Senator-elect Spark]

If he wins the nomination, 15+ for sure. If he was able to successfully sell himself to the Democratic apparatus, he'd get at least 43% in the GE. The country is too polarized for him to lose in a true landslide.

What would him garnering 43% look like?

[Lincoln Republican]

Donald Trump          535 EV     90% PV
Kanye West                 3 EV     10% PV    

[Senator-elect Spark]

If he wins the nomination, 15+ for sure. If he was able to successfully sell himself to the Democratic apparatus, he'd get at least 43% in the GE. The country is too polarized for him to lose in a true landslide.

What would him garnering 43% look like?

I'm not entirely sure, but if he's popular enough among Democratic voters to win the nomination in the first place, I imagine that he'd get at 187 EVs:

I don't think he'd do worse than the above map.

This. But I'd flip CT or RI.

[Lincoln Republican]

Donald Trump          535 EV     90% PV
Kanye West                 3 EV     10% PV    

You do realize that people aren't randomly thrust into the nomination, right? If Kanye West was actually popular enough to win the primary in the first place, that would likely translate to at least 40% of the vote in the general election.

Yes, I have to admit, my map is a bit of an exaggeration, but I want to emphasize that a Kanye West candidacy would be a big time loser.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No f**king way does that lunatic win WA, OR or MD. He would no more than 21-25% of the white vote.

[Intell]

Most democrats, I know, albeit, mostly a white, hispanic, and majority asian sample hate Kanye, and would not vote for him. He'd have reduced democratic turnout, and lose in a landslide.

In a Average Scenario

Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 370EV (55.9%)
Kayne West/Whoever: 168 EV (42.3%)

--------

Worst Case Scenario

Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 430 EV (57.2%)
Kayne West/Someone: 108 EV (40.6%)

[JJC]

I have him carrying;

CA, NY, IL, MD, VT, and D.C

He'd still get 120 EV though because anyone with a (D) will carry the big three dem islands (CA, NY, IL).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He would not win a single state in the primary seeing as how he's buddying up to Trump and thus wouldn't be running in the general election.

[OneJ]

Once again, people are underestimating at how much Kanye can pull off.

If you don't think he can win a single state (primary or general) you didn't learn anything from last year.

Why do you think that bastard won in the first damn place (partly because rural whites felt left out, got angry because an establishment GOP nominee wouldn't have done much good anyway; something like this could totally happen so don't shoot yourself in the foot yet)?

Besides, this country is too polarized for the blowout wins above this post. Even if most Democrats did not really care for Kanye, many people would still vote for him over Trump or any third party candidate (and they're awful too). Hell, I probably would vote for Kanye for a middle finger to Trump and his terrible administration.

But anyways, he'll obviously win DC, CA, HI, NY, WA, MD, MA, IL, VT, NJ, NM, and ME-01 (100% confidence).

CT, RI, OR, and DE are also pretty high confidence.

Toss Up confidence (leaning towards West) VA and CO

Pure Toss Up: MN, ME (at-large), MI, WI, PA, and FL

True Swing States: OH and IA

If Trump has a less than >40% rating, he could easily lose MI, PA and WI. Maybe even OH.

So let's dispel with all of the fiction that Kanye West is unable to win a state. We know he'll win a state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He won't win a single state for the same reason I won't.

[Figueira]

If he wins the nomination, 15+ for sure. If he was able to successfully sell himself to the Democratic apparatus, he'd get at least 43% in the GE. The country is too polarized for him to lose in a true landslide.

What would him garnering 43% look like?

I'm not entirely sure, but if he's popular enough among Democratic voters to win the nomination in the first place, I imagine that he'd get at 187 EVs:

I don't think he'd do worse than the above map.

This is realistic. Any other states flipping wouod be a result of factors not inherent to Kanye West.

[Lincoln Republican]

Once again, people are underestimating at how much Kanye can pull off.

If you don't think he can win a single state (primary or general) you didn't learn anything from last year.

Why do you think that bastard won in the first damn place (partly because rural whites felt left out, got angry because an establishment GOP nominee wouldn't have done much good anyway; something like this could totally happen so don't shoot yourself in the foot yet)?

Besides, this country is too polarized for the blowout wins above this post. Even if most Democrats did not really care for Kanye, many people would still vote for him over Trump or any third party candidate (and they're awful too). Hell, I probably would vote for Kanye for a middle finger to Trump and his terrible administration.

But anyways, he'll obviously win DC, CA, HI, NY, WA, MD, MA, IL, VT, NJ, NM, and ME-01 (100% confidence).

CT, RI, OR, and DE are also pretty high confidence.

Toss Up confidence (leaning towards West) VA and CO

Pure Toss Up: MN, ME (at-large), MI, WI, PA, and FL

True Swing States: OH and IA

If Trump has a less than >40% rating, he could easily lose MI, PA and WI. Maybe even OH.

So let's dispel with all of the fiction that Kanye West is unable to win a state. We know he'll win a state.

Kanye West coming anywhere near winning the states you have named, with very, very few exceptions, is completely laughable.

And if this is what the Dem bench has been reduced to, a rapper, then the Republicans will be guaranteed a win of biblical proportions. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Guys we are talking about the celebrity who ass kissed Trump the most after the election. He is not going to "rally the angry left" or whatever just due to that.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If he somehow managed to win the democratic nomination, he would have done something to make himself competitive.

[OneJ]

Once again, people are underestimating at how much Kanye can pull off.

If you don't think he can win a single state (primary or general) you didn't learn anything from last year.

Why do you think that bastard won in the first damn place (partly because rural whites felt left out, got angry because an establishment GOP nominee wouldn't have done much good anyway; something like this could totally happen so don't shoot yourself in the foot yet)?

Besides, this country is too polarized for the blowout wins above this post. Even if most Democrats did not really care for Kanye, many people would still vote for him over Trump or any third party candidate (and they're awful too). Hell, I probably would vote for Kanye for a middle finger to Trump and his terrible administration.

But anyways, he'll obviously win DC, CA, HI, NY, WA, MD, MA, IL, VT, NJ, NM, and ME-01 (100% confidence).

CT, RI, OR, and DE are also pretty high confidence.

Toss Up confidence (leaning towards West) VA and CO

Pure Toss Up: MN, ME (at-large), MI, WI, PA, and FL

True Swing States: OH and IA

If Trump has a less than >40% rating, he could easily lose MI, PA and WI. Maybe even OH.

So let's dispel with all of the fiction that Kanye West is unable to win a state. We know he'll win a state.

Kanye West coming anywhere near winning the states you have named, with very, very few exceptions, is completely laughable.

And if this is what the Dem bench has been reduced to, a rapper, then the Republicans will be guaranteed a win of biblical proportions. 

I mean Reps reduced to Trump, but hey, whatever floats your boat.

[heatcharger]

He's not a Democrat.