Which Congressional races in 2018 are you most optimistic/pessimistic about?

[Xing]

This is all assuming that people like Pence will be "helpful" to the GOP in two years. Remember what happened to Obama's approval ratings between 2008-2010, and try to imagine what position Trump could be in. I wouldn't go beyond Lean R for MO and IN right now, especially since we don't know who their opponents will be, and if I had to guess, 2018 is more likely to look like an inverse 2010 than another 2002, unless there's an international incident that rallies everyone around Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

This is all assuming that people like Pence will be "helpful" to the GOP in two years. Remember what happened to Obama's approval ratings between 2008-2010, and try to imagine what position Trump could be in. I wouldn't go beyond Lean R for MO and IN right now, especially since we don't know who their opponents will be, and if I had to guess, 2018 is more likely to look like an inverse 2010 than another 2002, unless there's an international incident that rallies everyone around Trump.

I see. I am also not predicting that 2018 will be another GOP wave year (which is why I have rated states like ND and WV Tossups), but I think IN and MO will be very difficult for Ds to hold even in a good year for them (say... a reverse 2016 or so). Maybe I'm wrong and every red state Democrat will win reelection and the GOP will lose in a landslide, but even in 2014, Democrats did not lose states like MI, VA, NH or MN. In 2016, Republicans weren't able to hold IL, NH and pick up NV, because these states are just too Democratic for them to win even in a wave year.

Of course it's only a guess. I'm not predicting any race with confidence at this point.

[brucejoel99]

I'm aware of that Morning Consult poll, but I highly doubt it is accurate. It also shows Senators like Reid, Menendez, McCaskill and Blunt being very popular, which is simply not believable. Morning Consult has always found most Senators with very good approval ratings.

Reid: "Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has soured with Silver State voters and is now the third-least popular senator, with a 43 percent disapproval rating. That’s up two spots from earlier this year."

McCaskill: 10th-least popular Senator (38% disapproval rating)

Menendez: 39% approve, 32% disapprove is NOT "very" popular (especially w/ 28% undecided)

Blunt: Yeah, you're kinda right there. 46% approve, 32% disapprove is simply not believable (even w/ 22% undecided).

[jamestroll]

Morning consult poll is crap.

And anyway, the posts I made before of what McCaskill and Donnelly are not DOA and the posts TN Volunteer made about why they are not favored all have good points.

It shows that we can all agree that 2018 will be very interesting.

[brucejoel99]

It shows that we can all agree that 2018 will be very interesting.

Agreed

[MarkD]

As long as we're discussing CONGRESSIONAL races (which is not just Senate races) I'll point out that if Ann Wagner gives up MO-2 to run against McCaskill, then it's not out of the question that MO-2 will be quite competitive. As I've pointed out recently to Jimmie, MO-2 was virtually a tie between Kander and Blunt, with maybe even a very small margin of victory for Kander. Trump did worse in MO-2 than Romney. Of all six predominantly Republican congressional districts in the state {2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8}, MO-2 is the weakest for the GOP. Cities like Webster Groves and Kirkwood, which used to be very reliably Republican, have been trending more Democratic.
As Jimmie and I have discussed, State Senator Scott Sifton (D-Sen. Dist. 1) could make the race very competitive, and would be the best person to recruit for that race in 2018.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm aware of that Morning Consult poll, but I highly doubt it is accurate. It also shows Senators like Reid, Menendez, McCaskill and Blunt being very popular, which is simply not believable. Morning Consult has always found most Senators with very good approval ratings.

As for IN and MO... I don't think I'm overconfident about those races at all. Obviously Republicans need to nominate strong candidates here to avoid a 2006 or 2012 redux, but "Likely R" seems like a good rating at this point in time. Donnelly really strikes me as a Mark Kirk waiting to happen: Someone who we're told shouldn't be underestimated, is battle-tested, a good fit for his state, moderate, etc. but loses by double digits in the end anyway, maybe even in a good year for Democrats.

McCaskill's only chance of getting reelected is rigging the Republican primary again and praying for Billy Long or Sam Graves to be her opponent. And even then it would only be a Tossup at best for Democrats. She's simply the worst possible Democrat for a state like Missouri. Yes, Jason Kander came close to winning in 2016, but that was only because Roy Blunt ran a godawful campaign that was hardly better than the one Todd Akin ran. Blunt was seen as the ultimate corrupt unlikeable Washington insider, but he STILL won despite facing a tough opponent who ran as an outsider and his terrible campaign. McCaskill has none of the advantages or strengths that Jason Kander had, but rather even more weaknesses than Roy Blunt. If she wins reelection, the MO GOP will have screwed up big time, even more so than in 2012.

IN and MO are the only states where I think Republicans have a big advantage. All the other red (and purple) states won't be as easy for the GOP to win.

Just because you don't like doesn't mean their states do for example I hate Ted Cruz but he's liked in Texas