Why did Kennedy do worse than Vitter in some rural counties in Northern LA?

[MT Treasurer]

Vitter even won Tensas and Madison Parish in 2010, but Kennedy lost them (despite the fact that neighboring counties swung strongly towards Kennedy). Is it just demographic change or is one of Campbell or Vitter from there?

[smoltchanov]

Neither Vitter nor Campbell is from there. Vitter comes from NO suburbs, Campbell - from NorthWest of state

[Miles]

Campbell is from Bossier City, by Shreveport.

When he ran for Governor in 2007, he only took 12%, but carried Bienville and Red River parishes:

[MT Treasurer]

^Ah, I see. Thanks! What about Tensas, Madison and those other two in NE LA? Demographic change?

[Miles]

^ That string from Concordia to East Carroll is kinda weird.

If it were purely demographic change, I'm sure Morehouse parish would have swung D too. It's gone from 55/43 white/black in 2000 to 51/47 in 2010, but it still swung R.

Tensas Parish swung Dem the hardest. It had mayors races in two of its largest cites, Newellton and St. Joesph. The former was a close race where the Dem won, and the latter was a competitive D vs D race, so those probably helped turnout in the minority precincts.

These are some of the most Democratic parishes in northern Louisiana, but are also among the least populous parishes. My guess was that Melancon's campaign may have just triaged this area, especially since he was from the south. Since Melancon underperformed there, I think they reverted back to where they 'should' be in the 2016 runoff.

I've also noticed when I've done detailed maps of the area, that these parishes can be prone to large swings (because of low populations), at least at the precinct level.

[136or142]

Probably due to the popularity of Nixon in those counties.    (sorry)

[VPH]

Why did Campbell run behind Hillary in some of the South Louisiana parishes that don't have a very high minority population? I would have guessed he would resonate more there...

[Heisenberg]

Why did Campbell run behind Hillary in some of the South Louisiana parishes that don't have a very high minority population? I would have guessed he would resonate more there...

If I had to make a guess, probably they were nostalgic of the Bill Clinton years (Dixicrat heritage), but voted for Kennedy since he is a former Democrat, and despite Fox News calling him a "fiscal hawk," he is actually more of a fiscal populist. Also, Campbell's hostility to the oil industry probably hurt him in parishes near the Gulf Coast.
And if you're talking about the runoff, then perhaps differences in the electorate, too.

[Miles]

^ Campbell was the only candidate, even in the primary field, who said he believed in global warming.

That region has trended GOP sharply since the oil spill, even in terms of registration. Senate District 20 (Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes) was the only district that was Landrieu 2008 but Vitter in 2015.

Lafourche Parish especially used to be very yellow dog. In fact, in the State House, Rep. Truck Gislcair may have the most GOP legislative seat held by a Democrat, outside of Appalachia.