Mighty (or once mighty) political Parties That You Believe Will Die Soon

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Israeli Labour party seems to be in a very serious danger.

Months later, and yeah, Israeli Labour has a >50% chance to die in the next few years.

[Kingpoleon]

CC: France

[Peanut]

The PUSC in Costa Rica hasn’t been doing too hot lately.

Neither of the two former giants (PUSC and PLN) did that well in this year's Presidential. Neither reached the runoff, and there've been two PAC governments in a row. I guess the fracture began in the 2002 elections, but it reached its biggest point this year. The old PLN and PUSC voters are dying off.

[PSOL]

If not already dead, UNMO and the BN coalition.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The US Green Party.

Wow hard to imagine a us without the monolithic power of the Green Party.

Look at them 20 years ago vs. them today.

[Galaxie]

PRI isn't looking too hot after this year's elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

PRI isn't looking too hot after this year's elections

Yeah, hard to see how they recover this time.

[mvd10]

What about LR (main conservative party) in France? A borderline corrupt extremely conservative candidate got 20% of the vote in the 2017 elections, and now they're stuck at about 10% in the polls. I guess what direction LREM/Macron will directly impact the remnants of PS and LR.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What about PP in Spain? I could honestly see both of the current candidates for leader completely fail to derail the C's train.

[TheSaint250]

I wouldn't say "soon," but I have a feeling that LREM will at one point crumble. There seems to be a lot of internal conflict, with many left-leaning/ex-PS members (which seem to make up a plurality of LREM) disagreeing with Macron's direction.

It exists as a movement and wants people of different political registrations to co-affiliate. If the party goes downhill, those people will have no problem switching back to their former parties.

If such a collapse does happen, I could see it being reduced to pre-2017 MoDem levels, or even lower, as a rump state.

[wxtransit]

Labor Party of Atlasia.

Hey, at least one of my predictions were right.

[EPG]

I wouldn't say "soon," but I have a feeling that LREM will at one point crumble. There seems to be a lot of internal conflict, with many left-leaning/ex-PS members (which seem to make up a plurality of LREM) disagreeing with Macron's direction.

It exists as a movement and wants people of different political registrations to co-affiliate. If the party goes downhill, those people will have no problem switching back to their former parties.

If such a collapse does happen, I could see it being reduced to pre-2017 MoDem levels, or even lower, as a rump state.

Best-reasoned post. New parties die and the clue to the longevity of LREM is the "EM" part. Old parties usually don't - if nothing else, they have huge legacy assets.

[Ethelberth]

Danish Conservative party is not what it used to be (era of Poul Schlüter).

[Oryxslayer]

PRI isn't looking too hot after this year's elections

Yeah, hard to see how they recover this time.

Especially that AMLO is basically the PRI but  more committed to reform and economic leftism. Their getting squeezed by MORENA on the left, and now more centrist PAN coalition - since PRD is part of the pact.  

But beyond this, I'm going to state the obvious that nobody has yet - the German SPD. Polls are basically placing the Union out ahead, and then all the other parties are fighting between 20 and 10 percent of the vote. The SPD is becoming a minor party for union members, far removed from its once national presence. Once Merkel  leaves the Union, there will be a turning point. Either the SPD can capitalize on the opening and rise once again, or the new CDU leader will ride their honeymoon to more electoral victories.

[TheSaint250]

I could see a few recently successful populist parties also failing once their leaders exit, such as PVV and ANO.

FvD will also probably suffer a similar fate, but I could see them performing well in one or two elections.

Also, what about the LibDems?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Also, what about the LibDems?

If you're talking about the UK party you're really stretching out the "once"

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Here's an answer: the INC. They are being impressively wiped out through most of the country atm: currently the "party of power" only is in government in three states: Punjab, Karnataka (as a junior partner) and tiny Mizoram (they also control the territory of Puducherry). Of course, one could argue that the INC of today has died several times over: Nehru's party died to create Indira's Congress, which itself died and was resuscitated as Sonia's UPA. Obviously there is a broad space in the secular anti-BJP vote that can still be filled, but whether the INC can successfully reinvent itself again to fill the space is another matter.

[MillennialModerate]

I honestly think the (British) Liberal Democrats are in trouble.

Despite great local results on a national level they’re showing signs of not recovering from coalition

[TheSaint250]

Also, what about the LibDems?

If you're talking about the UK party you're really stretching out the "once"

Sorry, I forgot about the “once dominant” part when I wrote this Still, I could see the party be swallowed up by another party, especially if the whole rumored “anti-Brexit centrists “ thing actually happens.

[Kingpoleon]

I wouldn't say "soon," but I have a feeling that LREM will at one point crumble. There seems to be a lot of internal conflict, with many left-leaning/ex-PS members (which seem to make up a plurality of LREM) disagreeing with Macron's direction.

It exists as a movement and wants people of different political registrations to co-affiliate. If the party goes downhill, those people will have no problem switching back to their former parties.

If such a collapse does happen, I could see it being reduced to pre-2017 MoDem levels, or even lower, as a rump state.

I don’t know - given the right leader, it seems like it could easily unite. Macron needs to either step up his capabilities so after his presidency he can act as a senior statesman, or he needs to start attempting to build a base of capable, charismatic leaders. No man can rule alone for long.

[IceAgeComing]

I honestly think the (British) Liberal Democrats are in trouble.

Despite great local results on a national level they’re showing signs of not recovering from coalition

1. the Liberal Democrats were never a "mighty" party - they were a third party that gained significant popularity from opposing an unpopular Labour government from the left only to piss it all (and more) away by going into coalition with the Tories

2. Their local government performance is also hardly "great" - they gained a negligible number of councillors in 2016 and 2018 and actually lost councilllors in 2017 compared to what were very bad County Council elections for them four years earlier.  In terms of vote share they showed increases in 2016 and 2017 (those 2017 losses were admittedly mainly because of the very high Tory position more than anything) but in 2018 their share fell again and isn't showing signs of revival.  They're polling dramatically lower than any local government results in an incredibly long time - probably the dark old days post-merger in the late 80s and before that you're probably talking fifty years earlier as a comparably bad time - and aren't making many meaningful gains even compared to local elections where they did terrible under the Coalition.

When it comes to devolved legislatures there isn't any growth their either; there is a single Welsh Liberal Democrat in the Welsh Assembly (Wales being the former home of Liberalism and a place where in their darkest days they could still rely on for support) and in Scotland they went nowhere in 2016 and actually ended up finishing fifth behind the Greens for the first time .  In London they also moved backwards - their Mayoral candidate finished fourth (behind the Greens) and lost her Deposit and in the Assembly lost one of their two seats and ended up fifth - behind the Greens as well as UKIP.  So basically they've shown little evidence of any revival anywhere at a local level as well - sure you can point towards certain local election results and cherrypick local by-elections but everyone can do that: the Greens have gained seats in local by-elections in the last year despite clearly having moved backwards in recent years.

[palandio]

Has anyone mentioned Forza Italia yet?

But then again you could argue that Forza Italia has never been a party in the proper sense and always nothing more than a political vehicle for Berlusconi and his interests.

[Lechasseur]

I wouldn't say "soon," but I have a feeling that LREM will at one point crumble. There seems to be a lot of internal conflict, with many left-leaning/ex-PS members (which seem to make up a plurality of LREM) disagreeing with Macron's direction.

It exists as a movement and wants people of different political registrations to co-affiliate. If the party goes downhill, those people will have no problem switching back to their former parties.

If such a collapse does happen, I could see it being reduced to pre-2017 MoDem levels, or even lower, as a rump state.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

Danish Conservative party is not what it used to be (era of Poul Schlüter).

Agreed. I don't think they'll have any parliamentary representation in 10 years time.

[mileslunn]

The Parti Quebecois in Quebec is one I could see dying over the next decade or so.  Wouldn't be surprised if in the long-run Quebec becomes like Ontario with CAQ the equivalent of PCs there, Liberals in both provinces, and Quebec Solidaire the equivalent of the NDP. 

From Canadian experience lots of dominant parties that disappear happen quite quickly an unexpectedly.  Social Credit in both BC and Alberta (1991 and 1971), Progressive Conservatives of Saskatchewan, Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, Union Nationale in Quebec so we have a long history of dominant parties going under, probably more so than many other countries.  Yes the PC party of Canada and PC Party of Alberta never disappeared but they merged and the new merged parties were significantly more right wing than either were so you could sort of say they died depending on your point of view.  Some might say the Ontario Liberals after the drubbing they got on June 7, 2018, but I think they will rebound and someday form government again, I don't think this will be the end of them.