Mighty (or once mighty) political Parties That You Believe Will Die Soon

[DavidB.]

The Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova. It won 20.2% of the vote in 2014 but now is polling at...0.5%! Yikes.

Its only existed since 2007; hardly long enough to be a mighty party.  It seems to be one of those parties that are common in that part of the world: they form, quickly get into power (usually because they push the "we're not corrupt like the other parties!!!" thing; then when things don't change they collapse to nothing - other examples that come to mind are Res Publica and Pro Patria in Estonia; who both did the same thing and ended up merging together.  Moldova is politically rather odd though; when you could make a legitimate argument that the Communist Party are a centre-right party in a country you know that you are talking about a very odd nation.

In addition to that I wouldn't say any *party* in Moldova could be qualified as "mighty"; they are mere vehicles for oligarchs to enrich themselves. Of course this is the case in various Eastern European countries with weak party systems.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, I mean look at the various once ruling parties in EE that are now defunct or irrelevant - SLD and Solidarity in Poland; HZDS, SDKU and KDh in Slovakia; ODS in Czechia and pretty much every party in Hungary except from Fisdez (the Hungarian soiclaist's implosion was one of the best self-annihilations in history)

[Zinneke]

Volskunie were a mighty party in Flanders that died. The Right of the party re-emerged as the N-VA. The social liberals that dominated it though got vacuumed up in sp.a and Agalev.

Cdh and ecolo in Wallonia (basically could become PS sattelites)

FDF/Défi in Brussels (by virtue of previously being a strong player in Brussels).


The PS(OE) in France and Spain are in far, far more danger than the UK and Dutch Labour party because they have movements that can replace them fairly easily (En Marche and Ciudadanos for the social liberals and democrats, Mélenchon and Podemos for the more left-wing of the party). They are basically being kept alive by traditional voters in certain regions. The UK Labour party will be the only real alternative to the Tories for many, and the Dutch Labour Party still has a high ceiling once D66, GL and 50PLUS will inevitably lose their voters. Only SP is a threat.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Eh, PSOE is in danger but PS will muddle on regardless even if it changes its name (would be hilarious if they renamed themselves "Democrats" to mirror the "Republicans"). I don't see Melenchon really as a major threat, because FdG is literally him and a few anonymous aging commies.

Oh wait, here's something: what will the Brazilian party system look like when the dust finally settles?

[Antonio the Sixth]

(would be hilarious if they renamed themselves "Democrats" to mirror the "Republicans")

No way. The French left cares far too much about its labels (even when those have lost all meaning) to go down that route. Even Valls has to keep up the pretense of calling himself a socialist.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Politically PS is like a slice of industrial orange cheddar taken between two steaks, embodied by both Mélenchon and Macron, they alone and u think what u want about what they say but at least have a bit of political consistency and embody some rather clear political dlrections.

Electorally, well maybe a lot of people are still fond of industrial flavor, old people don't like to change their food habits, but u never know.

No surprising vegan becomes more and more trendy though, I understand the appeal.

[The Mikado]

Is the Israeli Labor Party even fair to mention at this point?

[DC Al Fine]

Oh wait, here's something: what will the Brazilian party system look like when the dust finally settles?

Are there any decent Brazil polls? I'd be interested in this as well.

[Derpist]

Yes, I mean look at the various once ruling parties in EE that are now defunct or irrelevant - SLD and Solidarity in Poland; HZDS, SDKU and KDh in Slovakia; ODS in Czechia and pretty much every party in Hungary except from Fisdez (the Hungarian soiclaist's implosion was one of the best self-annihilations in history)

They've sunk to 10% in the polls, which is truly amazing. Almost PASOK-amazing. http://nezopontintezet.hu/analysis/baloldaliak-es-jobbik-tabor-fele-tamogatja-ader-janos-ujravalasztasat/

I actually think Labour under Corbyn has a reasonable chance to win the next election. Not favored, but a reasonable chance.

The INC is recovering...far more slowly than I expected.

The NDP in Canada looks structurally doomed to me. Which I suppose is sort-of unfortunate since my family works in NDP politics.

[IceAgeComing]

The NDP in Canada looks structurally doomed to me. Which I suppose is sort-of unfortunate since my family works in NDP politics.

people were saying that about the liberals five years ago and look where they are now

[Intell]

Yes, I mean look at the various once ruling parties in EE that are now defunct or irrelevant - SLD and Solidarity in Poland; HZDS, SDKU and KDh in Slovakia; ODS in Czechia and pretty much every party in Hungary except from Fisdez (the Hungarian soiclaist's implosion was one of the best self-annihilations in history)

They've sunk to 10% in the polls, which is truly amazing. Almost PASOK-amazing. http://nezopontintezet.hu/analysis/baloldaliak-es-jobbik-tabor-fele-tamogatja-ader-janos-ujravalasztasat/

I actually think Labour under Corbyn has a reasonable chance to win the next election. Not favored, but a reasonable chance.

The INC is recovering...far more slowly than I expected.

The NDP in Canada looks structurally doomed to me. Which I suppose is sort-of unfortunate since my family works in NDP politics.

Now why couldn't you be a good leftist and support Sanders like your Canadian brethen.

I'm kidding but still.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

One year later, someone brought the nails for one...

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https://actu.orange.fr/politique/video-manuel-valls-le-ps-est-mort-il-faut-construire-autre-chose-magic-CNT000000XDtZh.html

I think PS has achieved its historical role and that we have to build something fully different. The Parti Socialiste is dead, we have to build something different, which is social-reformism. - Manuel Valls, preceding PS PM of France.

But well, he betrays what he wanna say by himself, 'social-reformism' sounds 'so PS'.

[Lechasseur]

Eh, PSOE is in danger but PS will muddle on regardless even if it changes its name (would be hilarious if they renamed themselves "Democrats" to mirror the "Republicans"). I don't see Melenchon really as a major threat, because FdG is literally him and a few anonymous aging commies.

I think Mélenchon will be the dominant political figure of the left until he retires but I agree that I don't see the FdG eating up the PS, so I think once Mélenchon retires the PS may make a come back, but it will be a much more left wing party than the Hollande one (the PS's right wing has already left for En Marche).

[Lechasseur]

Volskunie were a mighty party in Flanders that died. The Right of the party re-emerged as the N-VA. The social liberals that dominated it though got vacuumed up in sp.a and Agalev.

Cdh and ecolo in Wallonia (basically could become PS sattelites)

FDF/Défi in Brussels (by virtue of previously being a strong player in Brussels).


The PS(OE) in France and Spain are in far, far more danger than the UK and Dutch Labour party because they have movements that can replace them fairly easily (En Marche and Ciudadanos for the social liberals and democrats, Mélenchon and Podemos for the more left-wing of the party). They are basically being kept alive by traditional voters in certain regions. The UK Labour party will be the only real alternative to the Tories for many, and the Dutch Labour Party still has a high ceiling once D66, GL and 50PLUS will inevitably lose their voters. Only SP is a threat.

I agree for the VolksUnie and the CdH, but why are Défi here? They were never a huge party outside of Brussels and my understanding is they're actually polling pretty well.

[Lechasseur]

Moldova is politically rather odd though; when you could make a legitimate argument that the Communist Party are a centre-right party in a country you know that you are talking about a very odd nation.

Very true, I really like the Moldovans (I personnally know several) but it is their political scene is odd (at the same time it's the poorest country in Europe, which is a real shame). This statement is basically true, but isn't the Moldovan Communist Party called the Party of Socialists now?

[Lechasseur]

The Dutch CDA?

I don't think they'll die out completely, given the very low threshold to be elected to the Dutch Parliament (I believe it's 0,66% of the total national vote or something like that), but I doubt they'll stay a major force much longer. Christianity is on the decline in most of Western Europe, the Netherlands included, so the Christian moderates (the type of people who would have been this type of party's base) are disappearing and Christian conservatives I think are going to vote for more conservative parties like the PVV or FvD from now on, which doesn't leave much space for the CDA.

[Lechasseur]

Pasok of Greece obviously.

[mvd10]

The Dutch CDA?

I don't think they'll die out completely, given the very low threshold to be elected to the Dutch Parliament (I believe it's 0,66% of the total national vote or something like that), but I doubt they'll stay a major force much longer. Christianity is on the decline in most of Western Europe, the Netherlands included, so the Christian moderates (the type of people who would have been this type of party's base) are disappearing and Christian conservatives I think are going to vote for more conservative parties like the PVV or FvD from now on, which doesn't leave much space for the CDA.

CU and SGP (more socially conservative Christian parties) actually have quite young voter bases. High birth rates in the Bible belt ad if your parents vote SGP you'll likely end up supporting the SGP too. The CDA's voter base is much older though.

The CDA's collapse with Christian voters has been especially dramatic with Catholics. Catholics don't have another Christian party to vote for (CU and SGP are explicitly Protestant) so the CDA used to have a monopoly on them, but Catholics left the CDA for PVV, VVD and even SP in the 2000s/2010s. Catholics are much less likely to vote for one of the three Christian parties than Protestants, I believe both VVD and PVV are ahead of CDA with Catholics now. The PVV has made some inroads in the Bible belt and other religious Protestant areas (there isn't really a Catholic Bible belt, I guess Oost-Brabant and parts of Limburg are quite religious, but they aren't as extreme as the Protestants in the Bible belt), but their gains are pretty limited.

I think the CDA can remain relevant for quite a while if they position themselves are more culturally conservative than the VVD (while being to the left of the VVD on economic issues), but we're definitely not going to see a CDA PM again in my opinion. I was baffled at Buma being happy with 19 seats. Who could have imagined than a decade ago?

[Lechasseur]

The Dutch CDA?

I don't think they'll die out completely, given the very low threshold to be elected to the Dutch Parliament (I believe it's 0,66% of the total national vote or something like that), but I doubt they'll stay a major force much longer. Christianity is on the decline in most of Western Europe, the Netherlands included, so the Christian moderates (the type of people who would have been this type of party's base) are disappearing and Christian conservatives I think are going to vote for more conservative parties like the PVV or FvD from now on, which doesn't leave much space for the CDA.

CU and SGP (more socially conservative Christian parties) actually have quite young voter bases. High birth rates in the Bible belt ad if your parents vote SGP you'll likely end up supporting the SGP too. The CDA's voter base is much older though.

The CDA's collapse with Christian voters has been especially dramatic with Catholics. Catholics don't have another Christian party to vote for (CU and SGP are explicitly Protestant) so the CDA used to have a monopoly on them, but Catholics left the CDA for PVV, VVD and even SP in the 2000s/2010s. Catholics are much less likely to vote for one of the three Christian parties than Protestants, I believe both VVD and PVV are ahead of CDA with Catholics now. The PVV has made some inroads in the Bible belt and other religious Protestant areas (there isn't really a Catholic Bible belt, I guess Oost-Brabant and parts of Limburg are quite religious, but they aren't as extreme as the Protestants in the Bible belt), but their gains are pretty limited.

I think the CDA can remain relevant for quite a while if they position themselves are more culturally conservative than the VVD (while being to the left of the VVD on economic issues), but we're definitely not going to see a CDA PM again in my opinion. I was baffled at Buma being happy with 19 seats. Who could have imagined than a decade ago?

You're probably right. So which parties in the Netherlands do you think can form government in the short-to-mid term? VVD? Who else would be possible?
Because I can't see the VVD leading government forever (well I suppose it wouldn't be impossible because next door in Belgium the CVP/PSC was almost constantly the leading party of government from the late 1950s to the late 1990s; now the CD&V (the CVP changed its name in 2001) will probably never be the country's largest party again but I think the next PM from Flanders will be from that party because the largest party, NVA, while they can enter government coalitions, I think they're too controversial to be able to form government outright, as you need to get the support of several parties on both sides of the linguistic divide;and the CD&V is the largest right of centre party after the NVA).
And where is the Dutch Protestant Bible Belt?
At anyrate I'm happy to hear that the Dutch Bible Belt seems to be doing well and growing.

[mvd10]

The Dutch CDA?

I don't think they'll die out completely, given the very low threshold to be elected to the Dutch Parliament (I believe it's 0,66% of the total national vote or something like that), but I doubt they'll stay a major force much longer. Christianity is on the decline in most of Western Europe, the Netherlands included, so the Christian moderates (the type of people who would have been this type of party's base) are disappearing and Christian conservatives I think are going to vote for more conservative parties like the PVV or FvD from now on, which doesn't leave much space for the CDA.

CU and SGP (more socially conservative Christian parties) actually have quite young voter bases. High birth rates in the Bible belt ad if your parents vote SGP you'll likely end up supporting the SGP too. The CDA's voter base is much older though.

The CDA's collapse with Christian voters has been especially dramatic with Catholics. Catholics don't have another Christian party to vote for (CU and SGP are explicitly Protestant) so the CDA used to have a monopoly on them, but Catholics left the CDA for PVV, VVD and even SP in the 2000s/2010s. Catholics are much less likely to vote for one of the three Christian parties than Protestants, I believe both VVD and PVV are ahead of CDA with Catholics now. The PVV has made some inroads in the Bible belt and other religious Protestant areas (there isn't really a Catholic Bible belt, I guess Oost-Brabant and parts of Limburg are quite religious, but they aren't as extreme as the Protestants in the Bible belt), but their gains are pretty limited.

I think the CDA can remain relevant for quite a while if they position themselves are more culturally conservative than the VVD (while being to the left of the VVD on economic issues), but we're definitely not going to see a CDA PM again in my opinion. I was baffled at Buma being happy with 19 seats. Who could have imagined than a decade ago?

You're probably right. So which parties in the Netherlands do you think can form government in the short-to-mid term? VVD? Who else would be possible?
Because I can't see the VVD leading government forever (well I suppose it wouldn't be impossible because next door in Belgium the CVP/PSC was almost constantly the leading party of government from the late 1950s to the late 1990s; now the CD&V (the CVP changed its name in 2001) will probably never be the country's largest party again but I think the next PM from Flanders will be from that party because the largest party, NVA, while they can enter government coalitions, I think they're too controversial to be able to form government outright, as you need to get the support of several parties on both sides of the linguistic divide;and the CD&V is the largest right of centre party after the NVA).
And where is the Dutch Protestant Bible Belt?
At anyrate I'm happy to hear that the Dutch Bible Belt seems to be doing well and growing.

This is a map of the SGP vote by municiplity which is a great indicator. And CU vote is strong in most of these municipalities too.

Yeah, sadly the VVD can't win forever . I think the VVD is in a decent position as most competitors aren't really viable in the short term. CDA/D66 are in a coalition with the VVD, PvdA is tainted by Rutte 2 and some scandals, GL probably doesn't have broad enough appeal and FvD/PVV and probably SP too will never lead a government. But they can't win forever. I'm inclined to say the VVD will eventually be replaced by a left-wing party as the biggest party (though not necessarily a left-wing government). The Dutch left can't lose forever right?

The VVD is Mark Rutte by now, and we'll have to see how VVD heir apparent Klaas Dijkhoff does after Rutte leaves. Maybe centre-right voters will prefer the more experienced Buma (CDA) or even Pechtold (D66) as PM over the inexperienced Dijkhoff. It'll be interesting to see what happens after Rutte. Even with Rutte there is the possibility that he stays too long like Balkenende. So the risks for the VVD are either a 1994-esque situation with Rutte as Lubbers (CDA PM in 1994, from what I know he probably would have won if he ran again) and Dijkhoff as Brinkman (young charismatic CDA candidate in 1994, but not ready for primetime) or a 2010-esque situation with Rutte as Balkenende (incumbet CDA PM who really should have left) and Dijkhoff as Eurlings (who probably would have won the 2010 election for the CDA, but declined to be their candidate and then spectacularly and savagely killed his own reputation in the past few years).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The PUSC in Costa Rica hasn’t been doing too hot lately.

[Zinneke]

Volskunie were a mighty party in Flanders that died. The Right of the party re-emerged as the N-VA. The social liberals that dominated it though got vacuumed up in sp.a and Agalev.

Cdh and ecolo in Wallonia (basically could become PS sattelites)

FDF/Défi in Brussels (by virtue of previously being a strong player in Brussels).


The PS(OE) in France and Spain are in far, far more danger than the UK and Dutch Labour party because they have movements that can replace them fairly easily (En Marche and Ciudadanos for the social liberals and democrats, Mélenchon and Podemos for the more left-wing of the party). They are basically being kept alive by traditional voters in certain regions. The UK Labour party will be the only real alternative to the Tories for many, and the Dutch Labour Party still has a high ceiling once D66, GL and 50PLUS will inevitably lose their voters. Only SP is a threat.

I agree for the VolksUnie and the CdH, but why are Défi here? They were never a huge party outside of Brussels and my understanding is they're actually polling pretty well.

Well, they have reinvented and recovered now with ECOLO thanks to the corruption and bad governance of the PS, but let's not forget that FDF were the first party in Brussels a couple of times. Had their split with MR ended badly for them it would have been a surprising disappearance. But yeah, still nowhere near as hegemonic as the PS and cdH(PSC) were once upon a time. Those two are arguably in greater danger.

[wxtransit]

Labor Party of Atlasia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The US Green Party.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The US Green Party.

Wow hard to imagine a us without the monolithic power of the Green Party.