Which Congressional races in 2018 are you most optimistic/pessimistic about?

[brucejoel99]

Well, midterms usually go against the party holding the Presidency; however, just as this year's Senate field offered ample opportunity for Democrats to pick up seats, 2018 is stacked for the GOP. Democrats have 5 red state seats to defend along w/ a few swing state seats. Meanwhile, they only have 1 really good target in NV, & 1 decent target in AZ.

MO & IN look like likely GOP pickups. ND, MT, & WV are solid Trump states but have popular incumbents, so who knows. The rest looks like a stretch to me. I see 2-5 GOP pickups, assuming the GOP can hold NV & AZ. That may increase if DEM incumbents in states such as WI or MI decide not to run for re-election.

So, as a DEM:

• Optimistic: NV + AZ
  

• So-so: ND + MT + WV

• Pessimistic: MO + IN

[brucejoel99]

I'm really bullish on our odds in 2018.  There are 10 Trump state Democrats running for re-election, and we only need eight for a filibuster-proof majority.

Well, I'll give you that MO & IN are likely GOP pickups, but ND, MT, & WV are solid Trump states that have popular Democratic incumbents, so who knows. The rest (MI, WI, PA, OH, & FL) look like a stretch to me. I see 2-5 GOP pickups, assuming the GOP can hold NV & AZ. That may increase if the popular DEM incumbents in WI or MI decide not to run for re-election (as opposed to the (popular) DEM incumbents in PA, OH, & FL, who've already decided to run for re-election).

[brucejoel99]

I'm really bullish on our odds in 2018.  There are 10 Trump state Democrats running for re-election, and we only need eight for a filibuster-proof majority.

Well, I'll give you that MO & IN are likely GOP pickups, but ND, MT, & WV are solid Trump states that have popular Democratic incumbents, so who knows. The rest (MI, WI, PA, OH, & FL) look like a stretch to me. I see 2-5 GOP pickups, assuming the GOP can hold NV & AZ. That may increase if the popular DEM incumbents in WI or MI decide not to run for re-election (as opposed to the (popular) DEM incumbents in PA, OH, & FL, who've already decided to run for re-election).

Lol, in Ohio and Wisconsin, Brown and Baldwin, two die-hard fire breathing liberals, can't be too too popular. I already plan to donate at least a little to their opponents.

Well, according to Morning Consult (morningconsult.com/senator-approval-rankings-september-2016/), as of Sept., Sherrod Brown's at 49% approve & 29% disapprove (w/ 22% who don't know). And though Baldwin's a little lower on the list of most popular Senators (42% approve, 36% disapprove, 21% don't know), she still has a positive approval rating nonetheless.

[brucejoel99]

I'm aware of that Morning Consult poll, but I highly doubt it is accurate. It also shows Senators like Reid, Menendez, McCaskill and Blunt being very popular, which is simply not believable. Morning Consult has always found most Senators with very good approval ratings.

Reid: "Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has soured with Silver State voters and is now the third-least popular senator, with a 43 percent disapproval rating. That’s up two spots from earlier this year."

McCaskill: 10th-least popular Senator (38% disapproval rating)

Menendez: 39% approve, 32% disapprove is NOT "very" popular (especially w/ 28% undecided)

Blunt: Yeah, you're kinda right there. 46% approve, 32% disapprove is simply not believable (even w/ 22% undecided).

[brucejoel99]

It shows that we can all agree that 2018 will be very interesting.

Agreed