I'm aware of that Morning Consult poll, but I highly doubt it is accurate. It also shows Senators like Reid, Menendez, McCaskill and Blunt being very popular, which is simply not believable. Morning Consult has always found most Senators with very good approval ratings.
As for IN and MO... I don't think I'm overconfident about those races at all. Obviously Republicans need to nominate strong candidates here to avoid a 2006 or 2012 redux, but "Likely R" seems like a good rating at this point in time. Donnelly really strikes me as a Mark Kirk waiting to happen: Someone who we're told shouldn't be underestimated, is battle-tested, a good fit for his state, moderate, etc. but loses by double digits in the end anyway, maybe even in a good year for Democrats.
McCaskill's only chance of getting reelected is rigging the Republican primary again and praying for Billy Long or Sam Graves to be her opponent. And even then it would only be a Tossup at best for Democrats. She's simply the worst possible Democrat for a state like Missouri. Yes, Jason Kander came close to winning in 2016, but that was only because Roy Blunt ran a godawful campaign that was hardly better than the one Todd Akin ran. Blunt was seen as the ultimate corrupt unlikeable Washington insider, but he STILL won despite facing a tough opponent who ran as an outsider and his terrible campaign. McCaskill has none of the advantages or strengths that Jason Kander had, but rather even more weaknesses than Roy Blunt. If she wins reelection, the MO GOP will have screwed up big time, even more so than in 2012.
IN and MO are the only states where I think Republicans have a big advantage. All the other red (and purple) states won't be as easy for the GOP to win.
Just because you don't like doesn't mean their states do for example I hate Ted Cruz but he's liked in Texas
