Which Congressional races in 2018 are you most optimistic/pessimistic about?

[MT Treasurer]

Not making confident predictions at this point, but speculating and guessing can be fun.

I'm only optimistic about 2 races, really. I think Republicans will pick up IN and MO relatively easily. Watching Crazy Claire self destruct will be glorious (and even if she somehow wins, she will get the Roy Blunt treatment for sure).

WI and OH should be good pickup opportunities on paper, but my gut feeling tells me that Duffy and Mandel will have a really hard time winning.

I'm not sure about ND, MT, NV, FL and PA at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

@hopper: It's true that ND elected Byron Dorgan, but don't forget that there's a reason he retired in 2010. Polling showed him trailing Hoeven by as much as 23 points. I know that Cramer is no Hoeven and that 2018 will be no 2010, but I wouldn't say that Heitkamp is "safe" because of how well Dorgan and Conrad did in the past.

And regarding Tester... yeah, the man is a good fit for his progressive base in the state, but he isn't as moderate or popular as as many people here seem to believe. Montana Senate races are almost never complete blowouts, and neither will the one in 2018 be. Any Republican will start out with a poll deficit, but it should tighten significantly, unless someone like O'Neill is the nominee. Just because Zinke is no longer an option, doesn't mean Tester is safe. See also CO-SEN 2014. Montana is way too polarized for Tester to win decisively, even Bullock (who is much more popular than Tester) only managed to win by 4.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm aware of that Morning Consult poll, but I highly doubt it is accurate. It also shows Senators like Reid, Menendez, McCaskill and Blunt being very popular, which is simply not believable. Morning Consult has always found most Senators with very good approval ratings.

As for IN and MO... I don't think I'm overconfident about those races at all. Obviously Republicans need to nominate strong candidates here to avoid a 2006 or 2012 redux, but "Likely R" seems like a good rating at this point in time. Donnelly really strikes me as a Mark Kirk waiting to happen: Someone who we're told shouldn't be underestimated, is battle-tested, a good fit for his state, moderate, etc. but loses by double digits in the end anyway, maybe even in a good year for Democrats.

McCaskill's only chance of getting reelected is rigging the Republican primary again and praying for Billy Long or Sam Graves to be her opponent. And even then it would only be a Tossup at best for Democrats. She's simply the worst possible Democrat for a state like Missouri. Yes, Jason Kander came close to winning in 2016, but that was only because Roy Blunt ran a godawful campaign that was hardly better than the one Todd Akin ran. Blunt was seen as the ultimate corrupt unlikeable Washington insider, but he STILL won despite facing a tough opponent who ran as an outsider and his terrible campaign. McCaskill has none of the advantages or strengths that Jason Kander had, but rather even more weaknesses than Roy Blunt. If she wins reelection, the MO GOP will have screwed up big time, even more so than in 2012.

IN and MO are the only states where I think Republicans have a big advantage. All the other red (and purple) states won't be as easy for the GOP to win.

[MT Treasurer]

Also not working in Donnelly's favor is the fact that Mike Pence is VP. Pence was mad as hell when the GOP lost that race in 2012, he will pull out all the stops to help his friend Messer, like Obama did for Duckworth this year.

Same thing is true in MO. McCaskill and the Missouri Republican Party are basically at war with each other. While the MO GOP is usually very incompetent, it shouldn't be underestimated either. No doubt that McCaskill will try to rig the Republican primary again, but I don't think this strategy will work for her this time, especially since she already did it in 2012. Again, Mitch McConnell and the Missouri GOP will pull out all the stops to defeat her. They will seek revenge for what happened in 2012.

[MT Treasurer]

This is all assuming that people like Pence will be "helpful" to the GOP in two years. Remember what happened to Obama's approval ratings between 2008-2010, and try to imagine what position Trump could be in. I wouldn't go beyond Lean R for MO and IN right now, especially since we don't know who their opponents will be, and if I had to guess, 2018 is more likely to look like an inverse 2010 than another 2002, unless there's an international incident that rallies everyone around Trump.

I see. I am also not predicting that 2018 will be another GOP wave year (which is why I have rated states like ND and WV Tossups), but I think IN and MO will be very difficult for Ds to hold even in a good year for them (say... a reverse 2016 or so). Maybe I'm wrong and every red state Democrat will win reelection and the GOP will lose in a landslide, but even in 2014, Democrats did not lose states like MI, VA, NH or MN. In 2016, Republicans weren't able to hold IL, NH and pick up NV, because these states are just too Democratic for them to win even in a wave year.

Of course it's only a guess. I'm not predicting any race with confidence at this point.