Which Congressional races in 2018 are you most optimistic/pessimistic about?

[Xing]

I'm the most pessimistic about ND, though I wouldn't be heartbroken to see Heitkamp lose. MO and IN are definitely going to be tough for Democrats as well, but I think a lot of Republicans are counting their eggs before they've hatched here. McCaskill and Donnelly aren't going to be pushovers. I'm also worried about OH, especially since I like Brown, and I think he's someone to watch for 2020 (though any chance he might have will obviously be gone if he loses.) Also, Democrats can't seem to catch a break in AZ, so I have a hard time seeing them pick up that seat, even in favorable conditions.

I feel pretty good about Wisconsin. Baldwin's a better candidate than many give her credit for, and WI really didn't magically become a Lean R state last year. It's a polarized swing state that pretty much comes down to turnout, which can be influenced by many things, including the sitting president's approval rating. Oops, meant to say WI is Titanium R.

Anyway, I actually feel pretty bullish about Tester, especially since Democrats have generally done better in statewide races there than other "red" states, and also because his opponent won't be Zinke. I think Nelson and Casey will be tough to take down as well. Yes, Nelson got very lucky in 2006 and 2012, but double digit victories are impressive in a state like Florida, and especially if Scott is his opponent, I like his chances. Nevada looks like a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats, and I'm not that worried about Michigan.

Not sure about West Virginia yet.

[Xing]

This is all assuming that people like Pence will be "helpful" to the GOP in two years. Remember what happened to Obama's approval ratings between 2008-2010, and try to imagine what position Trump could be in. I wouldn't go beyond Lean R for MO and IN right now, especially since we don't know who their opponents will be, and if I had to guess, 2018 is more likely to look like an inverse 2010 than another 2002, unless there's an international incident that rallies everyone around Trump.