The Democratic collapse in the Midwest is absolutely horrifying.
What about the significant gains in the sunbelt?
Say goodbye to Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Michigan's Senate seats. We may gain the same amount of EVs, but that's 4 or 6 seats we're down in the Senate.
We won't be noncompetitive in the rust-belt for senate races for a long time.
Plus, including IL, PA, and WV there are currently 12 dem held senate seats. Including AK, the D trending sunbelt states have the exact same amount of R held states.