Madagascar 2013 Maps
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 12, 2021, 12:22:47 PM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, أندراوس, Hash)
  Madagascar 2013 Maps
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Madagascar 2013 Maps  (Read 1832 times)
Sir John Johns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 25, 2016, 06:19:02 AM »

A Christmas present to the Atlas Forum: maps on communal level (there were 1568 communes and arrondissements then) of the 2013 Malagasy presidential election. It was a shame there was no thread about this election, one of the craziest ones in recent years; brace yourselves, the map of the first round is probably the most insane electoral map you have ever see.

Results can be found on the website of the Malagasy Supreme Court (see here for first round and here for second role), which, surprisingly enough for a very poor country, even provides detailed results, including results on polling station level.

A bit of context: in 2002, the presidential election saw the disputed victory of mayor of Antananarivo Marc Ravalomanana, a Merina (an ethnic group mainly founded in the central highlands of Madagascar which used to dominate Malagasy political life in the 19th century), over incumbent president Didier Ratsiraka (in office in 1975 and 1993 and since 1997), a member of the Betsimisaraka ethnic group which lived in the eastern littoral of Madagascar around Toamasina. Ratsiraka tried to resist Ravalomanana’s election from Toamasina but, by the end of the year, was forced to flee in exile.

In 2009, Ravalomanana was himself ousted from office and forced into exile by a military coup that gave power to then mayor of Antananarivo Andry Rajoelina, also a Merina. After international mediation, it was decided that a presidential election will be held to restore constitutional order. The long delayed election finally took place in 2013. Under international pressure, Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka and Rajoelina were all barred from running for president. Rajoelina’s supporters failed to agree on a joint candidacy leading to the presidential camp being divided between several candidacies (this division is possibly the main reason of why the first round map was so chaotic).

33 candidates ran for president with the main ones being:
  • Jean-Louis Robinson, a Merina and former health minister under Ravalonana, who ran as a proxy for Ravalonana
  • Hery Rajaonarimampianina, a French-Chinese-Malagasy from Antananarivo, who was finance minister under Rajoelina and received the endorsement of the outgoing head of state
  • Hajo Andrianainarivelo, a Merina and a deputy prime minister under Rajoelina, who was a close ally of the outgoing head of state
  • Roland Ratsiraka, the mayor of Toamasina and nephew of former president Didier Ratsiraka
  • Camille Vital, a former prime minister under Rajoelina and a member of the Vezo ethnic group (living in the southwest part of Madagascar around the coastal city of Toliara).
  • Edgard Razafindravahy, the president of the special delegation (i.e. mayor) of Antananarivo and a member of Rajoelina’s political party
  • Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, a former supporter of Didier Ratsiraka and a prominent opponent to Ravalomanana, who later served as foreign minister under Rajoelina
  • Saraha Georget, the president of the Malagasy Green Party and one of the two women who ran for president
  • Jean-Eugène Voninahitsy, a deputy for the riding of Maintirano (in the northwestern part of Madagascar)
  • Benjamin Andriamparany, a former finance minister under Ravalomanana and a deputy from Antananarivo
  • Julien Razafimanazato, a former education minister under Rajoelina who belonged to the Tsimihety ethnic group (living in the northern highlands)

Results were:
Jean-Louis Robinson 21.16%
Hery Rajaonarimampianina 15.85%
Hajo Andrianainarivelo 10.54%
Roland Ratsiraka 9.00%
Camille Vital 6.85%
Saraha Georget 4.52%
Edgard Razafindrahavy 4.34%
Pierrot Rajaonarivelo 2.68%
Joseph-Marie Randriamampionona 2.33%
Benjamin Andriamparany 2.23%
Jean-Eugène Voninahitsy 2.14%
William Ratrema 2.12%
Julien Razafimanazato 1.60%
Roindefo Monja 1.52%
Brigitte Rabemanantsoa 1.39%
Sylvain Rabetsaroana 1.28%
Clément Ravalisaona 1.15%
Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina 1.10%
all others under 1%

So here, the unshaded map of the first round:



and here, the shaded version (pretty unreadable):



In that mess, some patterns are distinguishable: Jean-Louis Robinson performed very well in the Merina-populated areas and, also, in Toamasina I where he won two communes, apparently helped by fraud (there is no way that Rajaonarimampianina failed to get a single vote in Ambodimanga. Conversely, he basically polled single digits in the rest of the country.

Rajaonarimampianina and Andrianainarivelo’s supports are comparatively spread quite equally throughout the country, with the former having his best results in the Betsileo-populated areas (in southern highlands). As expected, Ratsiraka’s support is mainly concentrated in the predominantly Betsimisaraka-populated areas. Some favorite son effect are noticeable: Vital in the southwest part of Madagascar; Voninahitsy in the area of Maintirano; Razafimanazato in the Tsimihety-populated areas; Roindefo Monja in the Antandroy-populated areas (southernmost part of Madagascar).



The second round map is basically a Merina vs. the other ethnic groups map.

Bonus maps:








Merry Christmas to you all. Smiley
Logged
homelycooking
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,299
Belize


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2016, 07:24:08 PM »

This is one of the best posts I've ever seen on Atlas. Malagasy politics and elections are confusing enough for Francophones and damn near indecipherable for English speakers and it's a revelation to have everything explained and mapped so authoritatively. I think it's disgraceful that not a word has been said about this in the nearly four days since it was posted. I only regret that I can't say more about it because this thread was my introduction to the topic. Thank you Sir John, and a very merry (belated) Christmas to you as well.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 601
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2016, 02:56:12 AM »

Is the capital uniformly Merina? The uniformity of support for Robinson is interesting.
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,595
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2017, 09:56:14 AM »

Was there any idealogical distinction between the candidates, or is the distinction purely tribal?
Logged
Sir John Johns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2017, 06:20:19 PM »

This is one of the best posts I've ever seen on Atlas. Malagasy politics and elections are confusing enough for Francophones and damn near indecipherable for English speakers and it's a revelation to have everything explained and mapped so authoritatively. I think it's disgraceful that not a word has been said about this in the nearly four days since it was posted. I only regret that I can't say more about it because this thread was my introduction to the topic. Thank you Sir John, and a very merry (belated) Christmas to you as well.

Thanks for your kind words. Making these maps took me hours of work and it's heartening to see that people are interested in it. However, my opening post was far from being perfect. Firstly, I forgot to specify that Rajaonarimampianina is partly of Merina descent (it was quite obvious to me when I wrote that he's from Antananarivo but could be confusing for readers). Secondly, I should have also post a useful map of Malagasy ethnic groups


Finally, I forgot to mention a fun fact: among the 33 candidates running for president there was a guy running as the candidate of the OBAMA party (he only won 0.21% of the vote).

Is the capital uniformly Merina? The uniformity of support for Robinson is interesting.

Antananarivo is overwhelmingly dominated by Merinas; according to a 1997 survey (I can’t found more recent numbers), Merinas accounted for 88.9% of the total population of Madagascar’s capital. In the first round, Jean-Louis Robinson’s results in the six arrondissements of the capital were comprised between 31.42% and 40.99%, so he was far from having capture the totality of the Merina vote. On a side note, it is worth mentioning that, if in the Merina-populated areas Robinson tended to have better results in the countryside than in urban areas, the opposite is true for the non-Merina-populated areas.

Was there any idealogical distinction between the candidates, or is the distinction purely tribal?

Most if not all political parties in Madagascar are actually personal vehicles with no ideological backbone competing for the spoils of government. Historically the main political divide has been between the Merinas and the Côtiers (non-Merinas) but personal rivalries between members of the same ethnic group have also played a role.

The 2013 election was a proxy fight between two Merina political leaders (and two former mayors of Antananarivo): Ravalomanana (backer of Robinson) and Rajoelina (backer of Rajaonarimampianina). One of the most interesting aspect of this election is that two Merina candidates (Rajaonarimampianina, but also Andrianainarivelo) managed to top the polls in a large number of Côtier-populated communes. The explanation of why they managed to outpoll Côtier candidates is probably that both were prominent members of the outgoing government (one was finance minister and the other deputy prime minister and minister for spatial planning) and had consequently access to the state's financial and logistic resources.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2017, 10:30:49 AM »

These maps are absolutely fantastic, and the analysis was very instructive. Thank you very much.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 11 queries.