Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 33,513
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2016, 02:31:02 AM » |
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« Edited: December 25, 2016, 02:21:09 PM by L.D. Smith, Nobody's Favorite Since 2014 »
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Too many things to factor in: But I'll go with the base assumptions that Trump stays in for re-election, the Democrats attempt to go left again, and states roughly remain the same.
2 scenario's assume the consequences mirror 1976-1980, 2 assume 2000-2004, and 2 assume Trump is somehow gonna actually be competent/ become reasonably popular.
1. Trump really is Carter, Democrats nominate the anti-Reagan.
Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nebraska CD-2, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico , Virginia, North Carolina
New close states: Georgia, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Utah, Maine CD-2
2. Trump really is Carter, Democrats nominate their John Anderson (or George H.W. Bush '80) somehow instead
Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska CD-2, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia
New close states: New Hampshire, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina
3. Trump is actually Dubya, Democrats nominate a non-screaming Dean [because Dean probably woulda' won Ohio]
Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nebraska CD-2, Michigan, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota
New close states: North Carolina,Georgia, Florida, Maine CD-2
4. Trump is actually Dubya, Democrats nominate Kerry again
New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina
New close states: Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Virginia
5. Trump is actually comfortably popular, Democrats continue the Hillary path anyway
New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nebraska CD-2, North Carolina, Georgia
New close states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Rhode Island, Illinois
6. Trump is actually comfortably popular, Democrats try out the Sanders style
Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nebraska CD-2, Nevada, New Hampshire
New close states: Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico , Michigan , Pennsylvania, Maine
Still not accounting for impeachments, handovers to Pence midway through, declining re-election, or actual and complete depolarization in his favor.
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