I'd first add that while Republicans might have been winning "urban" states, they weren't really winning urban areas; places like New York City, Boston and Philadelphia had a lot of Democratic power, AFAIK. I suppose I could attempt at trying to "carry forward" demographics to 2016?
- Whites of English ancestry (roughly, "WASPs") were heavily Republican outside of the South, so I am going to just translate that to White Protestants and Catholics outside of the South, as those groups seem to enjoy the same "established" or privileged status as WASPs did 100 years ago ... so maybe 60/40 Republican?
- Catholics voted heavily Democratic BECAUSE many of them were immigrants, so I am going to carry forward the Catholic vote to just being the Hispanic vote, which would vote about 80/20 Democratic then in this scenario.
- I remember seeing that Blacks in the Northern cities had already started only voting about 60%-40% Republican by the turn of the century, as many Democratic machines actually incorporated them into the organization. Blacks in the South who could vote were likely staunch Republicans, but not many of them could (but would be able to now). I'll say the nationwide Black vote would be like 65% Republican, with Northern Blacks pretty comfortably over to the Democrats and Southern Blacks remaining more Republican?
- Native Southern Whites, especially in the Deep South and/or rural areas, would likely be 80%-20% Democratic, with transplants being Republican?
80% = Safe, 50% = Likely, 30% = Lean, Gray = Tossup
Did this super fast while at work and will probably edit it later/will gladly accept suggestions for change!
