Why was Missouri so close in 2008

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's stunning how close Missouri was in 08

[Mr. Smith]

Not really, Missouri was always swing turf, revered second only to Ohio, and Obama was leading YUGELY.

It was more shocking when it didn't go to Obama at the time actually.

[Miles]

Also keep in mind that, as a Senator, Obama was known in the St. Louis media market before 2008.

[Figueira]

Yeah, Obama was the first person since Eisenhower to win without Missouri.

[Sumner 1868]

Missouri White voters:

2008
McCain: 57%
Obama: 42%

2012
Romney: 65%
Obama: 32%

2016
Trump: 66%
Clinton: 28%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Missouri and Delaware were bellwether states for the 20th century, and definitely diverged this century.

[AGA]

Obama was from a neighboring state, and he over performed hugely in the midwest in 2008 (over 60% of the vote in Illinois, winning the upper Midwest by double digits). Missouri had not fully gone through its Republican trend at the time. It was quite close in 2004 as well. What was more surprising was that he did better in Indiana and North Carolina than in Missouri.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obama was from a neighboring state, and he over performed hugely in the midwest in 2008 (over 60% of the vote in Illinois, winning the upper Midwest by double digits). Missouri had not fully gone through its Republican trend at the time. It was quite close in 2004 as well. What was more surprising was that he did better in Indiana and North Carolina than in Missouri.

This.

[Lothal1]

Obama had a notably gigantic rally in St Louis, also, that brought around 100K people out. Enthusiasm for Obama was strong.

[MarkD]

Obama had a notably gigantic rally in St Louis, also, that brought around 100K people out. Enthusiasm for Obama was strong.

Quite right.
And now the voter turnout is down, to a lower level than in 2008. I'm detecting a drop of about 15% fewer votes in the predominantly-black legislative districts in the St. Louis area (including the one that I live in) when comparing election data of 2012 to this year's.

[136or142]

Both Missouri and Indiana were unusually competitive that year.

[jamestroll]

There was some investment in the state that year, kind of goes to show you how much difference some investment can make. But the trick is to see whether it is worth it or not.

Also, like Miles said, Obama has had positive press coverage in the St. Louis Media Market since mid-2004.

It was the perfect Democratic storm in that state that year. There was an extremely anti-Republican climate from George W Bush and the Republican Governor at that time, Matt Blunt, was despised. There were also just enough yellow dog Democrats left that it almost allowed Obama to carry the state.

It remains too early to call, but it is my hope that 2016 was the opposite, the perfect storm GOP wave. Trump's campaign was tailor made for Missouri.  I have no idea if Democrats will win a statewide contest in MO any time soon, but I would not count it out yet. Midwestern states are quite swingy and it does have two urban centers. On the other hand, Southern states with stagnant demographics have trended heavily Republican. See Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, etc.

If Obama campaign did not actively campaign in MO, I think McCain would have won it by 7 to 8 points in 2008.

[Beet]

2008 wasn't stunning. Kerry got 46%, so with a Dem swing in 08, Obama's performance was below par. Al Gore got 47%. Obama got 49%.

2016 is stunning. A 20 point blowout. Worst since 1984. And even worse than 1984 because at that time, the St. Louis suburbs were for Reagan.

[Nym90]

Clinton did very poorly in the traditionally Democratic Southeastern Missouri counties that I believe used to be lead mining areas. Iron and Washington voted for Obama in 2008 but Trump got over 70% there. Ste. Genevieve county along the Mississippi River had even voted for Kerry, and Obama won it by 14 points in 2008, but it went for Trump this year with nearly 65% of the vote! It had already flipped to Romney in 2012, but still.

Going further back to the 1980's, you see a line of counties running from St. Louis down to the Arkansas border that were among the most Democratic in the state at that time.

I guess it's not that incredible compared to how poorly she did in a lot of other resource extraction based rural counties, but it's one more example of it.