Tentative 2018 Governor Rankings

[MAINEiac4434]

Alabama: Safe R.

Alaska: Lean I. Walker seems popular but it's Alaska so who knows.

Arizona: Likely R.

Arkansas: Safe R.

California: Safe D.

Colorado: Likely D but closer to Safe D than Lean D. Colorado's GOP bench isn't great and that state has moved toward the Democrats in recent cycles.

Connecticut: Safe D. I don't think Malloy will run again, and it's a pretty solid Democratic state.

Florida: Lean D especially if Graham runs.

Georgia: Likely R. Probably showing my bias here by not making it safe R.

Hawaii: Safe D.

Idaho: Safe R

Illinois: Likely D. Will Madigan finally run for something other than AG?

Iowa: Safe R.

Kansas: Safe R. Definition of insanity.

Maine: Lean D extremely tentatively. Depending on the combination of candidates it could go anywhere from Safe R (if Susan Collins runs) to Likely D (if Troy Jackson runs). I feel like the Dem will tie the Republican to LePage but that won't be enough to get LePage's base out in its entirety. Ranked choice will end the liberal independent spoiler effect, too

Maryland: Toss-up. A few days ago it'd be Likely R, but Hogan came out in support of the Muslim Ban and it's a safe Democratic state. Two years of Trump will likely wear thin on Marylanders.

Massachusetts: Likely R but closer to Lean R than Safe R if Joe Kennedy runs.

Michigan: Toss-up I don't know anything about the rust belt anymore.

Minnesota: Likely D. It's moved toward the GOP like it's neighbors but it's still the state that sent Al Franken back in a landslide. In a midterm that will be either neutral or positive to Ds it should stay with them.

Nebraska: Safe R.

Nevada: Lean D. Nevada has been trending D in recent cycles.

New Hampshire: Toss-up. I don't know anything about New Hampshire anymore, either.

New Mexico: Likely D. MLG2018

New York: Safe D.

Ohio: Lean R unless Nina Turner is the Dem in which case it's the GOP's safest seat.

Oklahoma: Safe R.

Oregon: Safe D.

Pennsylvania: Toss-up. I have no idea about Pennsylvania. Maybe Wolf will fare better than Hillary. And maybe not.

Rhode Island: Safe D.

South Carolina: Safe R.

South Dakota: Safe R.

Texas: Safe R.

Vermont: Likely R.

Tennessee: Safe R.

Wisconsin: Lean R I guess. Like I said, I don't know anything anymore.

Wyoming: Safe R.

[Sumner 1868]

Safe D: NY, CA, HI, OR.
Likely D: NJ, NM, IL, RI, VA, CO.
Lean D: MI, WI, CT, PA.
Tossup: VT, KS, AK, MA.
Lean R: FL, MD, AZ.
Likely R: IA, ID, SD, GA, NV.
Safe R: WY, SC, NE, TX, AL, TN, OK.

[Lechasseur]

Could somebody explain to me how Wisconsin could be anything other than Lean R? As much as I dislike Scott Walker, I'm at a loss for how the state Democrats could reestablish a foothold within the next decade. Milwaukee and Madison obviously despise him, but upstate and the northern shore cities like Green Bay, Appleton, Sheboygan, etc. are becoming decidedly more conservative in their outlook due to the decline of unions and cultural reshuffling exacerbated by the urban/rural divide. Milwaukee may be experiencing a revitalization and Madison is still growing, but I don't see how that can break the Republican coalition of the Milwaukee suburbs and an increasingly conservative upstate anytime soon.

What am I missing?

You make good points, but Walker's approval rating is kind of in the dumps right now. Also, there could be Republican fatigue, and Wisconsin has never given a governor a third term despite not having term-limits.

Point taken, but Tommy Thompson I believe won 4 terms (at any rate he was governor for 14 years, 1987-2001).

[Figueira]

Safe D: CA, HI
Likely D: NY, OR
Lean D: CO, ME, NM
Tossup/Tilt D: IL, MI, MN, PA, RI
Tossup/Tilt R: CT, FL, NV, NH, WI
Lean R: AZ, GA, IA, KS, MD, MA, OH
Likely R: NE, OK, SC, TX, VT, WY
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, SD, TN

Likely I: AK

[MAINEiac4434]

Safe D: NY, CA, HI, OR.
Likely D: NJ, NM, IL, RI, VA, CO.
Lean D: MI, WI, CT, PA.
Tossup: VT, KS, AK, MA.
Lean R: FL, MD, AZ.
Likely R: IA, ID, SD, GA, NV.
Safe R: WY, SC, NE, TX, AL, TN, OK.

Can't help but notice you forgot Maine. It's ok, we're really unpredictable.

[smoltchanov]

Safe D: CA, HI
Likely D: NY, OR
Lean D: CO, ME, NM
Tossup/Tilt D: IL, MI, MN, PA, RI
Tossup/Tilt R: CT, FL, NV, NH, WI
Lean R: AZ, GA, IA, KS, MD, MA, OH
Likely R: NE, OK, SC, TX, VT, WY
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, SD, TN

Likely I: AK

With almost minimal differences possible - that's my ratings too. FL and NV are pure tossup in my, and IA - somewhere between Lean and Likely R. That's, probably, all...

[Figueira]

Safe D: CA, HI
Likely D: NY, OR
Lean D: CO, ME, NM
Tossup/Tilt D: IL, MI, MN, PA, RI
Tossup/Tilt R: CT, FL, NV, NH, WI
Lean R: AZ, GA, IA, KS, MD, MA, OH
Likely R: NE, OK, SC, TX, VT, WY
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, SD, TN

Likely I: AK

With almost minimal differences possible - that's my ratings too. FL and NV are pure tossup in my, and IA - somewhere between Lean and Likely R. That's, probably, all...

I try to avoid using the "pure tossup, no tilt" category when I can. I gave FL and NV an R tilt just because of the Democrats' bad luck at getting those governorships recently.

[smoltchanov]

Safe D: CA, HI
Likely D: NY, OR
Lean D: CO, ME, NM
Tossup/Tilt D: IL, MI, MN, PA, RI
Tossup/Tilt R: CT, FL, NV, NH, WI
Lean R: AZ, GA, IA, KS, MD, MA, OH
Likely R: NE, OK, SC, TX, VT, WY
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, SD, TN

Likely I: AK

With almost minimal differences possible - that's my ratings too. FL and NV are pure tossup in my, and IA - somewhere between Lean and Likely R. That's, probably, all...

I try to avoid using the "pure tossup, no tilt" category when I can. I gave FL and NV an R tilt just because of the Democrats' bad luck at getting those governorships recently.

By such logic - i agree

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States to watch OH, Iowa and WI important for Dems in 2020

Dems pickup FL, ME, IL, MI, NV, NM

[Dr. MB]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Lean I
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Lean D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Tossup
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Tossup
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Jersey - Lean D
New Mexico - Lean D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Lean D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Lean R
Virginia - Tossup
Wisconsin - Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Schiavoni or Tim Ryan can make it a competetive against Mary Taylor

[Rjjr77]

Joe Schiavoni or Tim Ryan can make it a competetive against Mary Taylor

Tim Ryan could, schiavoni would have tough name ID.

Mary Taylor winning the GOP primary would be a big upset.

[Dr. Arch]

Poor Kansas

[Strudelcutie4427]