“Once-only Democratic” counties

[mianfei]

As an aside to Brandt Maxwell’s list of never-Democratic counties at http://www.geographylists.com/list21j.html, I have compiled a list of counties that (at least since the Civil War), have voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate once and only once.

I have listed the counties firstly in reverse chronological order of the election when they cast their solitary Democratic vote, and secondly in the normal order of state and county name.

I have adopted Maxwell’s policy of starring counties that are not rural, but have lowered the threshold for an asterisk to 75,000 people rather than his one hundred thousand.

2008:

• Boone, Illinois
• Kendall, Illinois*

1992:

• Johnson, Illinois
• Warren, Missouri

1964:

• Randolph, Indiana
• Wabash, Indiana
• Knox, Kentucky
• Whitley, Kentucky (LBJ won by just three votes)
• Allegan, Michigan
• Antrim, Michigan
• Hillsdale, Michigan
• Midland, Michigan*
• Newaygo, Michigan
• Allegany, New York
• Genesee, New York
• Livingston, New York
• Orleans, New York
• Tioga, New York
• Wayne, New York*
• Wyoming, New York
• Clinton, Ohio
• Geauga, Ohio*
• Warren, Ohio*
• Bradford, Pennsylvania
• Butler, Pennsylvania*
• Cameron, Pennsylvania
• Huntingdon, Pennsylvania
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania*
• McKean, Pennsylvania
• Potter, Pennsylvania
• Somerset, Pennsylvania*
• Tioga, Pennsylvania
• Preston, West Virginia
• Upshur, West Virginia

1936:

• Lebanon, Pennsylvania*

1932:

• Clark, Idaho
• Ford, Illinois
• Stark, Illinois
• Steuben, Indiana
• Cass, Iowa
• Page, Iowa
• Chautauqua, Kansas
• Camden, Missouri
• Christian, Missouri*
• Stone, Missouri
• Fulton, Ohio
• Major, Oklahoma
• Campbell, South Dakota
• Hutchinson, South Dakota
• Sully, South Dakota
• Turner, South Dakota

1916:

• Kane, Utah

1912:

• Hamilton, Indiana*
• Hendricks, Indiana*
• Brown, Kansas
• Laurel, Kentucky
• Pulaski, Kentucky
• Hawkins, Tennessee
• Ritchie, West Virginia
• Walworth, Wisconsin*

1896:

• Douglas, Missouri§

1876:

• Lewis, Kentucky
• Mitchell, North Carolina
• Wayne, Tennessee

_{* – Contains over 75,000 people
§ – voted for James B. Weaver in 1880
Italics – voted for Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 (except South Dakota where he was official Republican nominee and no Taft ticket on ballot)
Strikethrough – voted for Robert LaFollette in 1924}

Looking at this list, which totals sixty-four counties, there is a little more diversity than the never-Democratic counties.

Firstly, seven counties from postbellum states that approach or are “frontier” counties is a feature completely absent from never-Democratic counties. It should be noted that Clark County, Idaho, which voted Democratic only in 1932, was formed only in 1919, and the areas covered by it almost certainly voted Democratic in 1916 and 1896.

Secondly, there are a larger number of small-city or suburban counties asterisked than with the never-Democratic counties. Thirteen of sixty-four counties which have voted Democratic once and only once since the Civil War have over 75,000 inhabitants currently, as opposed to only five of thirty-eight (Riley County, Kansas and Scott County, Tennessee in addition to those over 100,000) which have never voted Democratic.

Thirdly, whereas in the 1924 election Robert LaFollette received no more than fifteen percent of the vote in any never-Democratic county, he carried two “once-only-Democratic” counties in South Dakota. This difference, though larger than the other two, is of course a reflection of the geography of LaFollette’s support.

The margin of victory when these counties went Democratic for their only time ranges, according to my research, from a mere three votes by Lyndon John over Barry Goldwater in Whitley County, Kentucky up to 40 percentage points by Franklin Roosevelt over Herbert Hoover in Hutchinson County, South Dakota. Whitley is of course adjacent to a large bloc of never-Democratic counties in southeastern Kentucky, so it is certainly a matter of luck that it is not in the never-Democratic club rather than the once-only-Democratic.

[Sumner 1868]

Thanks for the list.

I had expected a lot more under 1964. I wonder how many counties only went Democratic for FDR and LBJ? Probably dozens.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Are there no Clinton 2016 only counties?  I wonder how many of the Bush/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties were one time flips and how many are indicative of the future.  I guess it depends on what direction we move in and on how Trump actually governs.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Are there no Clinton 2016 only counties?  I wonder how many of the Bush/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties were one time flips and how many are indicative of the future.  I guess it depends on what direction we move in and on how Trump actually governs.

-Of course there are no HRC2016 only counties; HRC won fewer counties than BHO.

[Vosem]

Are there no Clinton 2016 only counties?  I wonder how many of the Bush/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties were one time flips and how many are indicative of the future.  I guess it depends on what direction we move in and on how Trump actually governs.

-Of course there are no HRC2016 only counties; HRC won fewer counties than BHO.

This is not necessarily indicative; there are a number of counties that Hillary flipped that have not voted Democratic in a very long time (Orange County, which voted for Hillary, last voted Democratic in 1936 before 2016). There being no HRC-2016 counties can be explained by political coalitions in the very distant past; there are indeed a decent number of Bush/Bush/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties.

[Thunderbird is the word]

1976:

Winston County, Alabama. I noticed it went Republican even in the New Deal era.

[mianfei]

Thanks for the list.

I had expected a lot more under 1964. I wonder how many counties only went Democratic for FDR and LBJ? Probably dozens.

There would be a great many – too many to easily count and compile!

Especially in the Plains there are many more counties that have supported no Democratic nominee bar FDR, but I refuse to qualify any county voting Democratic multiple times even if for just one nominee. There exist counties that have voted Democratic only for Woodrow Wilson (Osborne County, Kansas) and even only for Bill Clinton (Hickory County, Missouri; Johnson County, Kentucky; Pope County, Illinois; Union County, Tennessee) but do not qualify through supporting their sole Democratic candidate twice.

I might note that one near-miss of the “only once Democratic” club is Sweetgrass County, Montana which Bryan won by six votes in 1896 and FDR won in 1936, but which was the only Montana county to never vote for Woodrow Wilson.

[Bismarck]

Good to see my home county hasn't voted for a democrat since before the First World War.

[mianfei]

I had expected a lot more under 1964. I wonder how many counties only went Democratic for FDR and LBJ? Probably dozens.

Another point whihc I had meant to say earlier is that quite a number of counties only went Democratic for LBJ in 1964 and for Bill Clinton in 1996. There are if I recall correctly eight of these in New York (e.g. Yates County) and one in New Jersey. Although the never-Democratic club lost just one member at that election (Porter County in Indiana, which last voted for a Democrat before the Republicans formed in 1852) Bill Clinton did dent the once-Democratic club by more than ten percent.

[Skill and Chance]

Are there no Clinton 2016 only counties?  I wonder how many of the Bush/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties were one time flips and how many are indicative of the future.  I guess it depends on what direction we move in and on how Trump actually governs.

-Of course there are no HRC2016 only counties; HRC won fewer counties than BHO.

This is not necessarily indicative; there are a number of counties that Hillary flipped that have not voted Democratic in a very long time (Orange County, which voted for Hillary, last voted Democratic in 1936 before 2016). There being no HRC-2016 counties can be explained by political coalitions in the very distant past; there are indeed a decent number of Bush/Bush/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties.

It's hard to see the Democrats adding to this list for a long time.  All of the Southern and Western counties Clinton improved massively in have already been won by FDR, Wilson, or Bryan.  FDR swept Texas and Oklahoma in 1932, Bryan swept Idaho in 1896, Wilson swept Utah in 1916 (bizarre that this was the year it happened, as 1916 was a 3 point race nationwide).  It's also worth noting that LBJ won every Alaska county equivalent in 1964.  IMO the best chance would be one of if the rural Kansas counties that voted for Hoover and Teddy Roosevelt eventually becomes majority Hispanic.