the 2004 white vote

[Smash255]

Westchester County is generally not considered upstate.

Being a former New Yorker and Westchesterite, I know it depends on your perspective.  People in Manhattan consider Westchester upstate, while those upstate consider it part of the city.

While Westchester voted Republican, as it did for decades, New York was a swing state that leaned toward the Democrats, rather than a Democratic stronghold as it is now.

I think he also won NY north of the 42nd parallel. Gore may have won upstate sans Westchester.

Gore did perform marginally better in New York than Kerry, but there was not a big difference.  Geographically, Clinton in 1996 probably performed the best of recent elections, picking up a number of upstate counties.

The big shift in NY is that the NYC suburbs, which were always Republican strongholds, have gone over to the Democrats, and the city has become even more strongly Democratic.  Upstate still trends Republican.

Yes, the "closer" NYC Suburbs are Suffolk and Nassau counties on Long Island but those have also gone democratic recently ( Suffolk was 1% win for Kerry).  However, those counties as well as the fewer upstate pockets could be offset by the bulk of the state if it were not for the 5 boroughs of NYC that skew so heavily democratic.  Given the trends towards those counties shifting, means that this will be a democratic state until Republicans can do better with Minority votes 

Long Island had a 9/11 shift back, but it was primarily due to 9/11.  Suffolk went to Clinton by 14 in 96, Gore 11 in 2000, Nassau went to Clinton by 20 in 96 & Gore by 19 in 2000. Most likley 2008 will go back to double digits in both counties, with around 20 in Nassau.  9/11 also explains the white vote (which I believe went to Bush by 1-2% as NY (especially Nassau & Suffolk) were closer in 04 than 00 primarily due to the 9/11 impact.  Anyway the political changes in the suburbs primairly Westchester, Nassau & Suffolk pretty much dashed any hopes of winning NY, as Westchester, Nassau & Suffolk were all once strong GOP npw pretty much strong Dem (04 was the exception due to 9/11 on Long Island, it has shifted (Nassau especially) about as far as Westchester.  The local poltics in all 3 counties have also shifted to the Dems.

[minionofmidas]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

[dazzleman]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

[Alcon]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I'm not exactly pro-tax, but I find the decline of local industry to be more the reason of upstate New York's issues than high taxes...

[dazzleman]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I'm not exactly pro-tax, but I find the decline of local industry to be more the reason of upstate New York's issues than high taxes...

High taxes prevent upstate NY from attracting business to replace local industry that has declined.  And high taxes are part of the reason for the decline of local industry.  High taxes prevent places from adjusting to economic challenges and changes, and that is what has happened, in part, in upstate NY.

[Alcon]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I'm not exactly pro-tax, but I find the decline of local industry to be more the reason of upstate New York's issues than high taxes...

High taxes prevent upstate NY from attracting business to replace local industry that has declined.  And high taxes are part of the reason for the decline of local industry.  High taxes prevent places from adjusting to economic challenges and changes, and that is what has happened, in part, in upstate NY.

I do agree, but low taxes alone are not going to fix upstate New York's problems in my view.  There will always be ceaper area with cheaper land than upstate New York, even if NYC was to suddenly disappear and lower tax rates.  Part of the area's problem is that it is simply no longer  "hot," and will continue having difficulty rebounding from economic hardship until it finds a niche, and low taxes alone cannot provide that niche in time while at the same time maintaining government services that improve the area.

This is from an outsider with a basic knowledge of economics at  best, so please do correct me if my comments make no freaking sense, which I would be unsurprised to find out they do.

[Smash255]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I don't think the case is that in upstate NY as it has to deal with problems in Industrial regions.  Upstate NY has much more in common economically & Industrywise  with Michagin & Ohio than NYC.  I think the problem in upstate NY is part of a greater problem with Industrial Based Economy that they are based off (similar to Michagin & Ohio) than it does NYC & taxes.  Ohio & Michagin have lower tax thresholds than NY, but its economy is in prett bad shape, mostly due to the type of work their economy is based on, which is similar to the overall upstate NY economy Industrial based economic structure.  I think that is what really impacts & hurts upstate NY more than taxes & NYC.  If the higher taxes & not being able to attract businesss because of it was a real part of the problem, than states such as Michagin & Ohio with the same type of economy, but quite a bit lower taxes than upstate NY would be in better shape than they are, but they aren't.  It has much more to do with the breakdown of Industry than taxes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The problems upstate NY has varies depending on what part of upstate NY you're talking about, you can't really generalise IMO.

[minionofmidas]

Having a state government not really geared to their needs (including in the tax structure) is not going to help much, true. PA and IL have similar-ish situations of course, here too the states would likely be declining worse without the Philly and Chi burbs. Ohio isn't doing all that much better, though...although it probably is doing better.

[dazzleman]

I do agree, but low taxes alone are not going to fix upstate New York's problems in my view.  There will always be ceaper area with cheaper land than upstate New York, even if NYC was to suddenly disappear and lower tax rates.  Part of the area's problem is that it is simply no longer  "hot," and will continue having difficulty rebounding from economic hardship until it finds a niche, and low taxes alone cannot provide that niche in time while at the same time maintaining government services that improve the area.

This is from an outsider with a basic knowledge of economics at  best, so please do correct me if my comments make no freaking sense, which I would be unsurprised to find out they do.

Much of what you say is true, but high taxes make it very difficult to find a niche because they scare off a lot of business.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can NY adjust taxes so they're lower in the old industrial centres in upstate NY or not?

[dazzleman]

Can NY adjust taxes so they're lower in the old industrial centres in upstate NY or not?

They could, but politically, they will not.

And to one degree or another, all the states that have been mentioned, such as Ohio, Michigan, etc. are relatively high tax states.

Friendliness to unions is another thing driving business away.  Manufacturing that is being set up is generally in the south, which is lower tax and unfriendly to unions.  I'm not saying unions are all bad, but the presence of strong unions, and state governments that are pro-union, has proven a deterrent to the establishment of business.

At this point, NY is a highly dysfunctional state politically, and the residents are paying a high price for it.  The NYC Democrats who effectively control the State Assembly are the absolute worst, but they're not the only problem.  The state is a real mess, taxing people to death and tolerating all sorts of corruption that is making taxes higher and raising the cost of doing business.

[minionofmidas]

One thing to note is that perceived highness of taxes, perceived friendliness to union etc may be more important in attracting private investment than reality.

[Alcon]

I do agree, but low taxes alone are not going to fix upstate New York's problems in my view.  There will always be ceaper area with cheaper land than upstate New York, even if NYC was to suddenly disappear and lower tax rates.  Part of the area's problem is that it is simply no longer  "hot," and will continue having difficulty rebounding from economic hardship until it finds a niche, and low taxes alone cannot provide that niche in time while at the same time maintaining government services that improve the area.

This is from an outsider with a basic knowledge of economics at  best, so please do correct me if my comments make no freaking sense, which I would be unsurprised to find out they do.

Much of what you say is true, but high taxes make it very difficult to find a niche because they scare off a lot of business.

True, but wouldn't it be better to find and plan a niche before cutting taxes?  If the business doesn't come, the taxpayers may feel cheated and just institute even higher taxes than before.

[minionofmidas]

Moreover, you can't just cut taxes and leave everything else as is...you'll have to either save or borrow.

[DanielX]

Easy way to get NYC out of NY State: make two (or even three) states.  Make NYC, long Island, and Westchester county into 'New York', and divide upstate into western 'Erie' and eastern 'Hudson'.

Texas, California, and Florida can also be divided into three, while Pennsylvania and Illinois can be divided into two.

[bgwah]

The map is mostly what one would expect, but New York (and to a lesser extent California and maybe even New Jersey) do look suspicious. Of course this is just an exit poll.

[dougrhess]

How do people make these maps anyway?

[bgwah]

How do people make these maps anyway?

here
https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc.php

[dazzleman]

Has it occured to anyone that if you created a map with only non white votes, you would have even fewer states for Bush, than you have for Kerry in a 'white' map.

Yes.  So what?

[Gustaf]

In the case of NY, isn't that because whites are like a quarter of the population or something like that? (yeah, I'm exaggerating, but I think the number of WASPs in at least NYC is quite low...)

[AuH2O]

Actually Bush did very well in high-minority states. The South, Southwest all have large minority populations. Virginia has the same minority % as NY state, believe it or not. He won VA easily while losing NY because the whites are more liberal in NY.

[dazzleman]

In the case of NY, isn't that because whites are like a quarter of the population or something like that? (yeah, I'm exaggerating, but I think the number of WASPs in at least NYC is quite low...)

New York is still a strongly white state.  The NY suburbs are heavily white, and even the city is not as strongly minority as many US cities are.

[A18]

What's amazing is that every county in New York voted for Harding and Coolidge. Have the demographics changed that significantly?

[ag]

What's amazing is that every county in New York voted for Harding and Coolidge. Have the demographics changed that significantly?

Not really. Why would you think so? Of course some new groups showed up (e.g., there were a lot fewer Asians  and Hispanics back then). But I don't think that is what you have in mind. Which exactly demographic change are you thinking about?