Turkey referendum, 2017

[jaichind]

why would so many kurdish voters/liberal voters suddenly support erdogan?

Kurdish voters have always had a strong Erdoganist component. After all he represents the more religious nationalist end that includes them, as opposed to the more exclusively ethnic Turkish nationalists.

Yes but what took place today seems to break all historical patterns for AKP in Kurdish areas.  Lets take my example of ŞIRNAK

The Yes position clearly got a bunch of HDP votes. Example, in ŞIRNAK

In Nov 2015 the vote was
HDP  184,396
AKP    27,148
CHP     3,273
MHP     3,081
Other   2,338

Now the vote is
Yes    58,823
No   148,215

Even if all Nov 2015 AKP and MHP voters voted Yes, another 28K mostly HDP voters voted Yes.

In 2007 and 2011 when AKP was at its peak popularity in Kurdish areas AKP only won 33K and 36K respectively.   The Yes vote of nearly 59K shows that this vote the AKP is breaking all historical barriers by large margins in terms of its vote getting prowess in Kurdish areas once we factor in the 2-3K vote for MHP which was for Yes on paper in this vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Multiculturalism vs. Integration.

neither

integration wasn't the goal cause those people were meant to GO BACK and pushing for integration would have meant to acknowledge that those people are part of this country.

[Tender Branson]

Erdogan to speak soon ...

I have the transcript of his speech:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Beezer]

So is there any chance for a reversal at some point in the future? Like if Turkey's economy tanks, a credible opposition force emerges, wins the presidency, majority in parliament and decides to once again chance the constitution. Or is Turkey gone for good?

[jaichind]

no will win with 51.5%

Which will then be readjusted to 48.5%.

Prophetic prediction. 

[jaichind]

TRY up around 3% relative to friday close.

[Antonio the Sixth]

TRY up around 3% relative to friday close.

Nobody gives a sh*t.

[SunSt0rm]

The result isnt suprising, however it shows that if the election was fair, No would almost certainly have won

[Zinneke]

To be honest, all this ordeal proves to me is that Western Europe is, culturally and socially, just a much worse fit than countries like the US or Canada for the assimilation of immigrants.

Are you saying our societies are structurally designed to not be able to integrate/assimilate immigrants, compared to the US or Canada? Rather than the evident historical and geographical factors at work here?

Multiculturalism vs. Integration.

Britain has been the number 1 proponent of multiculturalism, at least in terms of policy.

[Lachi]

Welp, we now have a new dictator in the world...

[Beet]

Terrible news. Such changes to the constitution should require a supermajority. We must carefully safeguard democratic and liberal values around the world... history is not at an end.

[The Free North]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

[jaichind]

Pretty much all the votes are counted.  It seems that with the international vote it is Yes 51.63%-48.37%. The winning margin is well above 1.6 million votes.   CHP-HDP are complaining that last minute changes in rules are allowing up to 1.5 million "unsealed" ballots to be counted.  Of course even if all of them were for Yes and all of them were thrown out Yes would still win by over 100K.

[Lachi]

Cameras have captured possible evidence of ballot stuffing:
http://odatv.com/vid_video.php?id=8EF08
http://odatv.com/vid_video.php?id=8EF09
http://odatv.com/vid_video.php?id=8EEHG

[jaichind]

It seems that the provisions passed in the referendum will only take place after the next Presidential/Parliamentary elections which in theory will be in 2019.  Of course it is likely that Erdoğan  will push up the date of that election so he can win and then be President under a Presidential system. 

[jaichind]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

He is in a situation in which we Chinese call "Riding a Tiger and Not Being Able to Get Off (騎虎難下)."  Of course he can retire but his successor will not truly believe that he is really out of politics and will see him as a threat.  I doubt he can enjoy his large pension in peace for long before his successor will need to "look into" charges of his "corrupt activities" as a preventive move.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

He is in a situation in which we Chinese call "Riding a Tiger and Not Being Able to Get Off (騎虎難下)."  Of course he can retire but his successor will not truly believe that he is really out of politics and will see him as a threat.  I doubt he can enjoy his large pension in peace for long before his successor will need to "look into" charges of his "corrupt activities" as a preventive move.

THIS

the more enemies you got, the more dangerous it is for you to let loose.

jelzin made a deal with putin granting him and his family immunity before sharing power.

[jaichind]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

He is in a situation in which we Chinese call "Riding a Tiger and Not Being Able to Get Off (騎虎難下)."  Of course he can retire but his successor will not truly believe that he is really out of politics and will see him as a threat.  I doubt he can enjoy his large pension in peace for long before his successor will need to "look into" charges of his "corrupt activities" as a preventive move.

THIS

the more enemies you got, the more dangerous it is for you to let loose.

jelzin made a deal with putin granting him and his family immunity before sharing power.

What saved Yelsin was not the deal he made with Putin but more that he was in such poor physical shape that it was clear that he could not possibly be a threat to Putin.  The deal he made with Putin was more about saving his family from prosecution for the various looting they did during Yelsin's reign.  Putin was glad to keep his end of the bargain only because  there was zero chance of political revival for the Yelsin clan.  That might be a way out for  Erdogan if and when he is ready to step down.  Perhaps he can have a fake heart attack and then claim that he is in a near comatose state.  Then he can retire and hope his successor does not find out about it. 

[Strudelcutie4427]

Just watch, Erdogan will be deposed in a Ukrainian-style revolution. He lost big in Istanbul and his Islamist ideas are not popular in that massive city. Istanbul will rise up, Erdogan will dispatch the police and military on them, he will look bad once people are killed and he will eventually flee the country after a few month. Just like Yanukovych

[Intell]

Why isn't it a personal choice matter, integration?

I don't know, why you believe this referendum, is good, when it gives full power to Erdogan, and makes turkey a dictatorship with Erdogan's wishes going through without any dissent.

Erdogan, a figure comparable to Trump, but worse.

F*K Turkey, and maybe Germany, should stop giving arms to Turkey, and then be shocked, that it's turkish populace voted for Erdogan.


Also: What is the difference between expats from countries, that voted for (Belgium, Austria) and that voted against (Spain, UK, Australia)?

[2952-0-0]

What saved Yelsin was not the deal he made with Putin but more that he was in such poor physical shape that it was clear that he could not possibly be a threat to Putin.  The deal he made with Putin was more about saving his family from prosecution for the various looting they did during Yelsin's reign.  Putin was glad to keep his end of the bargain only because  there was zero chance of political revival for the Yelsin clan.  That might be a way out for  Erdogan if and when he is ready to step down.  Perhaps he can have a fake heart attack and then claim that he is in a near comatose state.  Then he can retire and hope his successor does not find out about it. 

When Mubarak resigned, he was immediately admitted to a military hospital where he has been "undergoing treatment" ever since, even when he was ostensibly serving a jail sentence.

If Erdogan and his regime are really overthrown, it's best for him to book a private jet somewhere, perhaps a Central Asian republic which can be trusted by both Erdogan and the new government to keep him safe and under surveillance.

[The Free North]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

He is in a situation in which we Chinese call "Riding a Tiger and Not Being Able to Get Off (騎虎難下)."  Of course he can retire but his successor will not truly believe that he is really out of politics and will see him as a threat.  I doubt he can enjoy his large pension in peace for long before his successor will need to "look into" charges of his "corrupt activities" as a preventive move.

Indeed. Which begs the question, why even go down that path to being with. Particularly in a country with a known history of military coups....

[Tintrlvr]

Just watch, Erdogan will be deposed in a Ukrainian-style revolution. He lost big in Istanbul and his Islamist ideas are not popular in that massive city. Istanbul will rise up, Erdogan will dispatch the police and military on them, he will look bad once people are killed and he will eventually flee the country after a few month. Just like Yanukovych

The referendum only failed narrowly in Istanbul, and in any case it is not the capital (though Ankara also voted narrowly no).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why isn't it a personal choice matter, integration?

I don't know, why you believe this referendum, is good, when it gives full power to Erdogan, and makes turkey a dictatorship with Erdogan's wishes going through without any dissent.

Erdogan, a figure comparable to Trump, but worse.

F*K Turkey, and maybe Germany, should stop giving arms to Turkey, and then be shocked, that it's turkish populace voted for Erdogan.


Also: What is the difference between expats from countries, that voted for (Belgium, Austria) and that voted against (Spain, UK, Australia)?

I'm just reacting to people who are citing integration failures et cetera and all.
I don't think you can actually force people to integrate into society unless they want to. If they aren't committing crimes, you are on thin ice as well, because you risk trampling religious freedom as well. Europe needs to understand that it has to be more accommodating of these cultures that the refugees bring. Some of the 'solutions' I've seen proposed, they don't fix the crux of the problem, they only entrench the current situation. Which is not ideal. I am glad that some of the kemalist-laiciest-excessively secularist garbage that is acceptable in France would never fly in America.
As for the referendum; I don't think the whole parliamentary supremacy thing with a figurehead president, that Turkey currently has, is ideal, and I think that checks and balances does work. I don't think some of the parts of this reform are that good at all; but hopefully this will get redone to make things a bit more equal in the future.

[Tender Branson]

What is the difference between expats from countries, that voted for (Belgium, Austria) and that voted against (Spain, UK, Australia)?

I cannot speak for the other countries, but most Turkish guest workers who arrived in Austria in the late 1960s to the 1990s came from very conservative/nationalist parts of Turkey.

In fact, most Turks in Salzburg come from the Black Sea provinces of Samsun and Ordu (which voted for YES with 2/3 of the vote) and the vast rural, population-rich Konya-province (which voted with over 70% for YES).

That might be a reason why Austrian Turks have the 2nd highest YES-vote in Europe, after Belgium.

Maybe the Turkish immigrants in other countries are from the more CHP-leaning coastal or Kurdish areas in Turkey.