Jmfcst’s take on the Rove/CIA leak scandal
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.:
First, the good news for the GOP:
1) Novak had two administration sources and a CIA source. The 2nd administration source was Rove, who, when told by Novak of the role of Wilson’s wife in sending Wilson to Niger, responded that he had heard the same story. That is neither criminal nor unethical.
---
The bad news for the GOP, from bad to worse:
1) Rove’s conversation with Novak is clearly not the focal point of the investigation, which means that something worse is going on.
2) Novak is clearly not the target of the investigation, which means that something worse is going on.
3) Rove may have taken the information given to him by Novak and spread it to others in the media and by doing such, implicated himself.
4) Novak’s other non-Rove administration source is the likely target of the investigation.
5) Novak’s other non-Rove administration source is likely linked to the Vice President’s Office.
6) Novak’s CIA source could be a joint target of the investigation and is a friend of the Vice President’s office who helped the Vice President’s Office out the Wilson’s wife.
This is the nightmare scenario for the GOP and could burn this administration to the ground, costing the GOP both houses of Congress and the White House.
I’d place this probability at 50%.
---
The GOP’s only hope:
The target of the investigation is not someone linked to the Bush Administration. I’d place this probability at 25%.
Or the investigation could end with no indictments. I’d place this probability at 25%.
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└:
Quote from: jmfcst on July 15, 2005, 11:19:51 AM
First, the good news for the GOP:
1) Novak had two administration sources and a CIA source. The 2nd administration source was Rove, who, when told by Novak of the role of Wilson’s wife in sending Wilson to Niger, responded that he had heard the same story. That is neither criminal nor unethical.
Whether the information would have been leaked without Rove is an open question. However, it was adminstration sources, so at least one adminstration official is guilty, and it looks like that may include Rove.
WMS:
Quote from: jmfcst on July 15, 2005, 11:19:51 AM
First, the good news for the GOP:
1) Novak had two administration sources and a CIA source. The 2nd administration source was Rove, who, when told by Novak of the role of Wilson’s wife in sending Wilson to Niger, responded that he had heard the same story. That is neither criminal nor unethical.
---
The bad news for the GOP, from bad to worse:
1) Rove’s conversation with Novak is clearly not the focal point of the investigation, which means that something worse is going on.
2) Novak is clearly not the target of the investigation, which means that something worse is going on.
3) Rove may have taken the information given to him by Novak and spread it to others in the media and by doing such, implicated himself.
4) Novak’s other non-Rove administration source is the likely target of the investigation.
5) Novak’s other non-Rove administration source is likely linked to the Vice President’s Office.
6) Novak’s CIA source could be a joint target of the investigation and is a friend of the Vice President’s office who helped the Vice President’s Office out the Wilson’s wife.
This is the nightmare scenario for the GOP and could burn this administration to the ground, costing the GOP both houses of Congress and the White House.
I’d place this probability at 50%.
---
The GOP’s only hope:
The target of the investigation is not someone linked to the Bush Administration. I’d place this probability at 25%.
Or the investigation could end with no indictments. I’d place this probability at 25%.
I'm going to bump this, because it's way more important than the 'let's get Rove!' threads getting more responses. ::)
Filuwaúrdjan:
An extremely good post, Jmf; your analysis of this sort of thing has always been worth reading.
Thanks to WMS for bumping this :)
WMS:
Quote from: Attorney General Al on July 15, 2005, 05:04:45 PM
An extremely good post, Jmf; your analysis of this sort of thing has always been worth reading.
Thanks to WMS for bumping this :)
Yes, Jmf and Tredrick have been dead on target about this. :)
Jfern is missing the forest for the trees (ferns? :P). You'd think the prospect of the entire Republican party crashing and burning would have excited his interest but... ::)
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