2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Very interesting patterns, thank you for doing all of this.

Looking at the swing/lean R/D states, it looks like almost all of them followed both the same long term (2000-2016) and short term (2012-2016) trend with the exception of NV and NH.

NH has a long term trend of 0.2 Dem but a short term trend of 3.72 Rep.
NV has a long term trend of 4.4 Dem but a short term trend of 2.33 Rep.

I predict that the Dems will hold into Nevada by close margins in 2020 and 2024. New Hampshire is a true swing state in every sense of the word.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

If this continues on, it would mean a natural Dem House majority (and control of a bunch of large states) with a major Republican advantage for everything else.  Sort of like the 1870's-1890's.

Why does this pattern portend a natural Dem House majority?

Also, looking at the medium-long term for Presidential elections, Texas and Florida are the key. If Democrats can get those two states on their side (along with perhaps Georgia and North Carolina), they can afford to lose the entire midwest minus Illinois.

I agree. Dems should target GA, AZ, NC, and FL in the short run and TX in the long run.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

A competitive 2024 map (assuming these trends continue):