OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

As stated previously, there's a good chance Tiberi will challenge Mandel as the Kasich-candidate.

A new article in the Plain Dealer suggests Faber will not challenge Yost for Attorney General and will instead comfort himself with Auditor. Although it also opens the door to the possibility Trump appoints him as a U.S. Attorney.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder if it would make more sense for Sherrod Brown to run for Governor than the Senate? He wouldn't be swimming against a partisan tide (or it would be much less of one), the Republican Party won't decide on a candidate until quite late in the game, and if he does win he'll be able to prevent a repeat of the disastrous 2010s House map and probably give Democrats 3-4 House seats plus a bunch of new legislative seats, allowing them to rebuild the Ohio bench. That seems like a much more attractive proposition to me than staying in an unending Senate minority, though perhaps I'm biased since I really want to see Mandel elected and would therefore prefer Brown run to be Governor.

Iirc Brown really wants to become head of the Senate Banking Committee one day. He's a natural legislator rather than executive imo.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

Good or bad for the Dems?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

Husted joined the Trump-wing?  I thought he was better than that

[BuckeyeNut]

Not per se, but he's shaping up to be a compromise candidate. Taylor's going to be out the out and out with Trump-ites as Kasich's preferred pick and DeWine's people are liable to be purged.

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

Good or bad for the Dems?

Hesitant "good."  In the arguments for Borges, Timken's inexperience was pushed as a major selling point, and not wrongly. We'll see, obviously. Borges is being kept around in some emeritus position, but he and the Trump wing really don't get a long, so it's a real question if he'll stick around.

[KingSweden]

Case study in whether Trumpism is transferable beyond Trump

[ibagli]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

He's too old to run for re-election to the court in 2018, so he'd only be losing a year if he resigns early. I'm not sure how far he'll go, though. His victory in 2012 felt more like a ballot name fluke than anything about his actual campaign, which only spent about $4,000.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

He's too old to run for re-election to the court in 2018, so he'd only be losing a year if he resigns early. I'm not sure how far he'll go, though. His victory in 2012 felt more like a ballot name fluke than anything about his actual campaign, which only spent about $4,000.

Yeah, his whole thing is that he doesn't really do fundraising ("No money from nobody").  Cupp also ran an attack ad against O'Neill that really backfired in mid-October.  Decent guy, but statewide material O'Neill is not   Nina Turner is the absolute worst though, she's basically a wannabe Alan Grayson without the fundraising skills (she considered accepting a spot as a Jill Stein's runningmate). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

He's too old to run for re-election to the court in 2018, so he'd only be losing a year if he resigns early. I'm not sure how far he'll go, though. His victory in 2012 felt more like a ballot name fluke than anything about his actual campaign, which only spent about $4,000.

Yeah, his whole thing is that he doesn't really do fundraising ("No money from nobody").  Cupp also ran an attack ad against O'Neill that really backfired in mid-October.  Decent guy, but statewide material O'Neill is not  Nina Turner is the absolute worst though, she's basically a wannabe Alan Grayson without the fundraising skills (she considered accepting a spot as a Jill Stein's runningmate).  

Slightly off-topic, but, as an Ohioan, do you think that Nina Turner has any future in higher office? I could see her winning Price's seat in the 11th once the seat vacates for whatever reason, but obviously, as an out-of-stater, I'm not really at the vantage point to make a definitive statement about her chances.

Not really, she could've carved a niche as a whackivist-type, but she burned her bridges by resigning from her ODP post to go shamelessly beg for attention campaign for Sanders, refusing to endorse Hillary, taking so long to turn down Jill Stein's VP offer, etc.  Plus she was never terribly popular to begin with beyond a small, but loud collection of whacktivists.  If she runs in the 11th, she'd probably get crushed even in a clown-car field (thankfully).

[Rjjr77]

Nina would have difficulty winning the 11th when Marcia fudge steps down. Mayor of Cleveland in a perfect storm maybe but nothing outside of her smalle region of influence.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, Mayor of CLE seems like the most likely future office for Nina, if any. She didn't just burn bridges with the establishment, but with a lot of the black community, too, as I understand it.

[Rjjr77]

It's quite likely her only real shot, which shows how much damage she's done to herself, considering the razor thin Ohio democrat bench.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's quit likely her only real shot, which shows how much damage she's done to herself, considering the razor thin Ohio democrat bench.

Razor-thin is an exaggeration, but yeah, at this point almost no one in Ohio likes Nina Turner . O/c she was always an awful candidate.

[Rjjr77]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's too much of an exaggeration with so few state officials in the dem bench (some of them retreads). When serious statewide contenders are city and county officials that's a thin bench. Until some of the old folks (Tavares, Skindell, Sykes, Edna Brown, Cera, Ashford etc..) go, or a wave comes it's going to be an uphill climb.

[TJ in Oregon]

Nina Turner would need one heck of a wave to win a state-wide race and she's ticked off enough people she wouldn't win a primary in a safe D seat like OH-11.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's too much of an exaggeration with so few state officials in the dem bench (some of them retreads). When serious statewide contenders are city and county officials that's a thin bench. Until some of the old folks (Tavares, Skindell, Sykes, Edna Brown, Cera, Ashford etc..) go, or a wave comes it's going to be an uphill climb.

We've got Cordrey, Joe Schiavoni, Tim Ryan, Lou Gentile, Dave Leland, Kathleen Clyde, Armond Budish, Connie Pillich, John Cranley, to name just a few.

[Rjjr77]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's too much of an exaggeration with so few state officials in the dem bench (some of them retreads). When serious statewide contenders are city and county officials that's a thin bench. Until some of the old folks (Tavares, Skindell, Sykes, Edna Brown, Cera, Ashford etc..) go, or a wave comes it's going to be an uphill climb.

We've got Cordrey, Joe Schiavoni, Tim Ryan, Lou Gentile, Dave Leland, Kathleen Clyde, Armond Budish, Connie Pillich, John Cranley, to name just a few.

There are people, no doubt, but gentile just lost a state senate race, Cordray and Pillich have statewide losses. Schiavoni and Clyde are promising, but not well known outside of their districts (I think schiavoni has potential) Leland is also pretty lightly known elections wise for his age. Cranley and Budish are city and county officials, with Cranley's two congressional losses (one in a wave year). You fail to mention Bocceri who I'm confident the dems will run statewide in 18. I've also hear Alicia Reese's name being bandied about. There are people but it's a short bench.

[BuckeyeNut]

Turns out Mary Taylor made a secret endorsement of Timken in the final days before the chairman vote. What a snake in the grass. Kasich must be pissed.

[Rjjr77]

Turns out Mary Taylor made a secret endorsement of Timken in the final days before the chairman vote. What a snake in the grass. Kasich must be pissed.

Not that surprising, I think she's from Akron area and that chair endorsed Timken. Also mike Dewine had been looking like the Kasich/Borges candidate

[BuckeyeNut]

I guess we will see. DeWine might now be the de facto Kasich candidate, but just as Trump has organized an ousting of Kasich in the state party, Kasich organized an ousting of DeWine only a few years ago.

I wouldn't make light of county officials. State Legislative candidates run statewide all the time, and they represent fewer people than a fair number of county officials. Knocking Budish is folly, though I doubt he runs. Yes, Fitz sort of soiled the idea of Cuyahoga County Executive running for Goveror, but it is the largest executive position next to the Governor, and Budish was Speaker of the House.

[rpryor03]

Yeah, there's no real "Kasich Candidate" anymore. Kasich and Husted have always been at odds, DeWine and Kasich haven't been that friendly, and now Kasich and Taylor are at odds. Pat Tiberi is maybe Kasich's only ally right now.

[BuckeyeNut]

True as that may be, Borges did get half the votes. It'll be interesting to see the breakdown as it progresses.

ION: Dettelbach now raising money for an AG race and "Dettelbach for Ohio" has been registered by the Ruppert Co.

[Blackacre]

Is there any definitive statement or reason that would explain why Kasich himself isn't going to run for Senate?