50 State Turnout/Elasticity Analysis (2006-present)
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  50 State Turnout/Elasticity Analysis (2006-present)		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 50 State Turnout/Elasticity Analysis (2006-present)  (Read 478 times)
mencken
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« on: November 25, 2016, 12:51:22 PM »
« edited: November 25, 2016, 03:15:20 PM by mencken »
Part 1: Alabama
Elections used: 2006 Governor, 2008 Senate, 2008 President, 2010 Senate, 2010 Governor, 2012 President, 2014 Governor, 2016 Senate, 2016 President
Turnout/R vote share R2: 0.041 (positive)
Turnout/D vote share R2: 0.116 (negative)
Mean vote share (+/- 2.3 SD) R: 61.6%+/-6.4%
Mean vote share (+/- 2.3 SD) D: 37.6%+/-6.3%
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mencken
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2016, 03:43:31 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2016, 04:06:19 PM by mencken »
Part 3: Arizona^
Elections used: 2006 Governor, 2006 Senate, 2008 President, 2010 Senate, 2010 Governor, 2012 Senate, 2012 President, 2014 Governor, 2016 Senate, 2016 President
Turnout/R vote share R2: 0.252* (negative)
Turnout/D vote share R2: 0.188* (positive)
Mean vote share (+/- 2.26 SD) R: 51.4%+/-14.1%
Mean vote share (+/- 2.26 SD) D: 44.6%+/-16.1%
Predicted vote share (+/- 1.9 IQR) R: 52.0%+/-1.3% (54.7%+/-1.0% in midterms)+/-6.4%
Predicted vote share (+/- 1.9 IQR) D: 43.8%+/-1.4% (41.0%+/-1.1% in midterms)+/-2.9%

^Alaska delayed until I figure out how to deal with a de facto three-party system
*Excluding 2006 Governor
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