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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  New SurveyUSA Governors approval polls - July
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Author Topic: New SurveyUSA Governors approval polls - July  (Read 4665 times)
True Democrat
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« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2005, 12:03:15 pm »

Bredesen's numbers are so funny.  Look in depth at the Party and Ideology approvals.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2005, 12:10:48 pm »

44% approve while 49% disapprove of Rendell. (same as June numbers). I have stated in the past, though, that these frequent SurveyUSA polls don't seem to be all that accurate. Regardless, a number of polls have made obvious Eddie's falling approval ratings which make me happy to say the least. The celebrity factor was big in '02 for Rendell. 2006 will bring a change.

Rendell's regional approval is very odd.

West: 27-65
NE: 39-53
SE: 68-24 Smiley
T: 32-61

How is Rendell's approval higher in the T than in Western Pennsylvania?
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King
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« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2005, 12:31:32 pm »

Actually I think there are structural factors influencing the results of these polls, as I've said before. People in some states just like their politicians more, not to mention to obvious external factors.

Rounds, by the way, will hopefully relieve Tim Johnson of his Senate seat at the next opportunity.

And pigs fly in Virginia!

Yes, no way a Democratic Senator like Tim Johnson that won by 2 points in a soild Republican state would lose to a Republican Governor like Mike Rounds with 73% approval ratings!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2005, 12:51:51 pm »

44% approve while 49% disapprove of Rendell. (same as June numbers). I have stated in the past, though, that these frequent SurveyUSA polls don't seem to be all that accurate. Regardless, a number of polls have made obvious Eddie's falling approval ratings which make me happy to say the least. The celebrity factor was big in '02 for Rendell. 2006 will bring a change.

Rendell's regional approval is very odd.

West: 27-65
NE: 39-53
SE: 68-24 Smiley
T: 32-61

How is Rendell's approval higher in the T than in Western Pennsylvania?

That area in the SurveyUSA polls are always unusual.
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danwxman
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« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2005, 01:52:38 pm »

44% approve while 49% disapprove of Rendell. (same as June numbers). I have stated in the past, though, that these frequent SurveyUSA polls don't seem to be all that accurate. Regardless, a number of polls have made obvious Eddie's falling approval ratings which make me happy to say the least. The celebrity factor was big in '02 for Rendell. 2006 will bring a change.

Rendell's regional approval is very odd.

West: 27-65
NE: 39-53
SE: 68-24 Smiley
T: 32-61

How is Rendell's approval higher in the T than in Western Pennsylvania?

That area in the SurveyUSA polls are always unusual.

The "T" should really be split. South Central should get its own polling region. This area has nothing in common with the rest of the T.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2005, 09:59:42 pm »

It would be sweet to knock off Pawlenty in 2006.

It would be sweet if someone gave me a 645i convertible, but that's not going to happen either.

Mike Hatch

He'll give me one? Well tell him I'd like it silver gray metallic with the dakota leather package and the premium sound system.

Be at the alley behind the local coffee shop at 11:11 tomorrow night with $100,000, aluminum foil, and no-stick cooking spray.
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RJ
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« Reply #31 on: July 13, 2005, 10:07:09 pm »

I have stated in the past, though, that these frequent SurveyUSA polls don't seem to be all that accurate.

Isn't too often I agree with you, but I think you're right on this one. After all, I can't believe they even found 17% of our state's population to say they approve of Bob Taft. If they polled 600 adults, they would have to find about 100 people who think Bob is a stand up guy to get those numbers. They must have found all 100 who actually think that. What are the odds?

You know, people like to live where there are natural disaters for some strange reason. People in the most populated states have all kinds of treacheries to deal with every day. Hurricanes in Florida. Earthquakes and mudslides in California. Bob taft on Ohio.

It's so much fun to throw rocks at big Bob. Even Republicans are doing it.
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Jake
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« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2005, 10:11:32 pm »

I'm sure with only 600 sampled the MoE is high and the number of junk polls is higher. Any that have moved 3 or more points without good reason (ie, not Pawlenty) are the crap polls.
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Alcon
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« Reply #33 on: July 14, 2005, 12:34:05 am »

I'm sure with only 600 sampled the MoE is high and the number of junk polls is higher. Any that have moved 3 or more points without good reason (ie, not Pawlenty) are the crap polls.

600 actually isn't bad...4% MoE or so isn't it?  Certainly acceptable.

Pawlenty could be a crap poll, but looking at trending, it wouldn't be my top choice.
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Jake
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« Reply #34 on: July 14, 2005, 12:37:53 am »

I think this actually overestimates Pawlenty's approval. To have it only fall a bit when the state government is shut down is suprising.
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bgwah
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« Reply #35 on: July 14, 2005, 01:28:59 am »

Hmm, Gregoire went down 3 points! Still higher than May though.

The 3 point drop is probably because of the gas tax raise (which isn't really a "raise" considering inflation, but tell that to the stupid Republicans) and I'm sure she'll recover. She could be to the 50's by 2008.
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Smash255
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« Reply #36 on: July 14, 2005, 01:49:06 am »

I'm sure with only 600 sampled the MoE is high and the number of junk polls is higher. Any that have moved 3 or more points without good reason (ie, not Pawlenty) are the crap polls.

600 actually isn't bad...4% MoE or so isn't it?  Certainly acceptable.

Pawlenty could be a crap poll, but looking at trending, it wouldn't be my top choice.

The sa,ple size & MOE is fine, but when you have regional breakdowns you tend to get some strange results because the sample sizes tend to be quite small for them, they generally tend to even out (one area might be overstated, another area could be ubnderstated)
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bgwah
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« Reply #37 on: July 14, 2005, 02:20:56 am »
« Edited: July 14, 2005, 02:39:50 am by Jesus »

The poll has a breakdown by people's views of abortion.

The breakdown isn't really what's interesting (at least to me), but it basically includes a poll of whether people are pro-choice or pro-life.

I even made a map...

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jfern
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« Reply #38 on: July 14, 2005, 10:12:58 am »

I'm sure with only 600 sampled the MoE is high and the number of junk polls is higher. Any that have moved 3 or more points without good reason (ie, not Pawlenty) are the crap polls.

They're not crap, they just have a large MOE. Unless you're J.J. you should understand the difference.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #39 on: July 14, 2005, 11:07:01 am »

17%... LOL.  I'd be laughing if we didn't have another 18 months of him.
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jfern
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« Reply #40 on: July 14, 2005, 11:15:03 am »

17%... LOL.  I'd be laughing if we didn't have another 18 months of him.

He is truly a patriot with a 17-76 rating. Wink
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #41 on: July 14, 2005, 12:58:47 pm »

The poll has a breakdown by people's views of abortion.

The breakdown isn't really what's interesting (at least to me), but it basically includes a poll of whether people are pro-choice or pro-life.

I even made a map...



Que? 

Texas is not a pro-choice state, that part of the map is certainly wrong.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #42 on: July 14, 2005, 03:20:32 pm »

I think this actually overestimates Pawlenty's approval. To have it only fall a bit when the state government is shut down is suprising.

The situation had been brewing for quite a while.

Plus, I'm not sure when this poll was taken, so it could've been pre-shutdown.
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Jake
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« Reply #43 on: July 14, 2005, 03:29:10 pm »

I think this actually overestimates Pawlenty's approval. To have it only fall a bit when the state government is shut down is suprising.

The situation had been brewing for quite a while.

Plus, I'm not sure when this poll was taken, so it could've been pre-shutdown.

7/8-7/10 afterwards
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bgwah
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« Reply #44 on: July 14, 2005, 05:06:28 pm »

The poll has a breakdown by people's views of abortion.

The breakdown isn't really what's interesting (at least to me), but it basically includes a poll of whether people are pro-choice or pro-life.

I even made a map...



Que? 

Texas is not a pro-choice state, that part of the map is certainly wrong.

What proof of that do you have? There are a few states I'm not sure about (Texas and West Virignia), but I haven't seen any polls that indicate the opposite.

It's not like 100% of Republicans are pro-life. Abortion is not the deciding factor for many people when they vote GOP (and ends up being a pro-life government).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #45 on: July 14, 2005, 05:23:08 pm »

The poll has a breakdown by people's views of abortion.

The breakdown isn't really what's interesting (at least to me), but it basically includes a poll of whether people are pro-choice or pro-life.

I even made a map...



Que? 

Texas is not a pro-choice state, that part of the map is certainly wrong.

What proof of that do you have? There are a few states I'm not sure about (Texas and West Virignia), but I haven't seen any polls that indicate the opposite.

It's not like 100% of Republicans are pro-life. Abortion is not the deciding factor for many people when they vote GOP (and ends up being a pro-life government).

Easy.  Knowledge of the population.  I have lived and visited in all parts of Texas with all different kinds of people.  The only place where pro-choice is supported more than pro-life is in Austin and the city centers of Dallas and Houston and the inner suburbs (not the large and growing suburbs and exurbs).

First, the Hispanics in Texas are not pro-choice in temperament.  At least 40% of them are Protestant evangelicals (meaning most are pro-life), a certain percentage more are Catholics (and a good number of those are pro-life).  I would say the white population divides in half between pro-life and pro-choice, perhaps leaning ever so slightly to the pro-life side, extremely pro-life in rural and suburban areas, though nowadays they vote (70%-30% Republican).  The black population probably leans slightly towards pro-choice, but they are not very large in influence any more.

Third, look at the religious maps of the state.  Texas is perhaps the most church-going state in the union, maybe second to North Dakota.  West Virginia is not a church-going state, so attitudes there may be different.

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J. J.
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« Reply #46 on: July 14, 2005, 05:39:56 pm »

I'm sure with only 600 sampled the MoE is high and the number of junk polls is higher. Any that have moved 3 or more points without good reason (ie, not Pawlenty) are the crap polls.

They're not crap, they just have a large MOE. Unless you're J.J. you should understand the difference.

They are not necessarily "junk," just less accurate.  Of course, there are huge problems with looking at just one poll and there can be problems within that poll.  Jfern still doesn't get that.
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AkSaber
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« Reply #47 on: July 14, 2005, 08:29:11 pm »

I found this interesting. Governor Frank Murkowski apporval ratings.

May
27% Approve   
66% Disapprove   

June
28% Approve    
64% Disapprove   

July
31% Approve    
61% Disapprove
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Alcon
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« Reply #48 on: July 19, 2005, 10:59:14 pm »

I found this interesting. Governor Frank Murkowski apporval ratings.

May
27% Approve   
66% Disapprove   

June
28% Approve    
64% Disapprove   

July
31% Approve    
61% Disapprove

I guess people are gradually getting bored of the scandal, although those are still dreadful approval ratings.
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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #49 on: July 20, 2005, 12:27:28 am »

As long as there not being taxed, the Governor can do ANYTHING he wants.  As we saw with the senate race last year, that state votes blindly.  At least Massachusetts has a Republican governor (as much as I disagree with his spend-and-borrow, social ultra-liberalism hidden by Kerry flip-flopping).  Of course, being from SC there's not much room to criticize other governors!
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