New Battleground Map

[super6646]

I am sadly unable to post a link to my map, but it is similar to most, though I do have Maine at large as a toss-up (one of its districts leans GOP, another leans Democrat), while also leaning PA GOP and Virginia democratic.

I'm sure some people here could argue that Pennsylvania and Virginia should be battlegrounds, but given the shift in western PA in recent years, as well as the shift in northern virginia, I think both of these are leans. Iowa being a solid is because of the strong performance of Trump in the state (he won by almost 10%), so I am confident that democrats won't really try too much to get its votes (its only 6). Ohio is a lean because of its historical trend in being a swing state, and because I think Democrats will want its 18 electoral votes if they're to win. So overall:

Safe Republican: 170
Lean Republican: 81
Total Republican: 251

Toss-up: 86

Safe Democrat: 182
Lean Democrat: 19
Total Democrat: 201

[TheSaint250]

Just to be clear, ME's 2nd district is likely R.  The other non-dark-blue are lean R.

[Bea O'Problem]

Pink: Lean D
Light red: Likely D
Dark red: Safe D
Gray: Tossup
Light blue: Lean R
Medium blue: Likely R
Dark blue: Safe R

[DPKdebator]

Dark red: Solid D
Light red: Likely D
Pink: Lean D
Gray: Tossup
Sky blue: Lean R
Light blue: Likely R
Dark blue: Safe R

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Michigan could arguably be a tossup, but I would be surprised if Michigan stayed Republican in 2020 or even if it was within just a couple points in favor of the Democrats given Obama's very sizable victories there in 2008/2012. I doubt that Trump winning there last year is truly a sign of some huge  shift. At least in Wisconsin and PA, which I left as tossups, Obama won by smaller margins.

SAFE D = 183
LIKELY D = 26
LEAN D = 39
TOSSUP = 85
LEAN R = 41
LIKELY R = 71
SAFE R = 83

[Frimaire]

Dark Blue = Safe R (122 EV)
Regular Blue = Likely R (70 EV)
Light Blue = Lean R (39 EV)
Grey = Toss-up (63 EV)
Purple = Lean D (35 EV)
Bright Red = Likely D (22 EV)
Dark Red = Safe D (187 EV)

Arizona is still a Likely R imho, don't forget Romney carried it by 9 points. Nevada is still in reach for the Republicans, since it trended more R than the Nation as a whole in 2016. Same for Minnesota.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

If I were more of an unabashed hack, I would have put MI into tilt D, but I'm erring on the side of caution.

Pink/light blue: tilt / lean
Red/blue: Likely
Dark red/blue: Safe
Grey: tossup

[cvparty]

some of y'all are going too far ahead with your trends ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) considering the past few elections as well, here are the states' overall leans relative to the country right after the 2016 election:

dark red: >16% D lean
red: 10-16% D lean
pink: 5-10% D lean
gray: <5% lean (battleground)
light blue: 5-10% R lean
blue: 10-16% R lean
dark blue: >16% R lean

[President Johnson]

As of now, this:

220 - 186 - 132

[DPKdebator]

I did some number crunching, and here is the average of every election from 2000-2016:

Dark blue: Safe R (>10% R)
Light blue: Lean R (50-10% R)
Sky blue: Tilt R (<5% R)
Pink: Tilt D (<5% D)
Light red: Lean D (5-10% D)
Dark red: Safe D (>10% D)
(EVs are 285 D - 253 R)

Also, here is the number of times each party won a state vs. the other:

(EVs are 272 D - 266 R)
Dark color = party won all 5 times
Light color = party won 4/5 times
Pale color = party won 3/5 times

[cvparty]

oh, and if anyone's wondering I used a weighted average of the states' lean relative to the nation for the five elections from 2000-2016

[The sturm und drang years]

I did some number crunching, and here is the average of every election from 2000-2016:

Dark blue: Safe R (>10% R)
Light blue: Lean R (50-10% R)
Sky blue: Tilt R (<5% R)
Pink: Tilt D (<5% D)
Light red: Lean D (5-10% D)
Dark red: Safe D (>10% D)
(EVs are 285 D - 253 R)

Also, here is the number of times each party won a state vs. the other:

(EVs are 272 D - 266 R)
Dark color = party won all 5 times
Light color = party won 4/5 times
Pale color = party won 3/5 times

In the second map Colorado and Virginia should be pink, not light red.

[DPKdebator]

I did some number crunching, and here is the average of every election from 2000-2016:

Dark blue: Safe R (>10% R)
Light blue: Lean R (50-10% R)
Sky blue: Tilt R (<5% R)
Pink: Tilt D (<5% D)
Light red: Lean D (5-10% D)
Dark red: Safe D (>10% D)
(EVs are 285 D - 253 R)

Also, here is the number of times each party won a state vs. the other:

(EVs are 272 D - 266 R)
Dark color = party won all 5 times
Light color = party won 4/5 times
Pale color = party won 3/5 times

In the second map Colorado and Virginia should be pink, not light red.

Whoops, fixed it:

[The sturm und drang years]

Dark Red: Solid Democratic
Pink: Lean Democratic
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean Republican
Dark Blue: Solid Republican

228 - 215 - 95

[Canis]

Strong Dem 182
 Likely Dem 18
Lean Dem 33
Dem Total 232
Tossup  95
Strong Rep 109
Likely Rep  70
Lean Rep 32
Rep total 211
 

[AGA]

[AGA]

Dark Red: Solid Democratic
Pink: Lean Democratic
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean Republican
Dark Blue: Solid Republican

228 - 215 - 95

I think that Arizona is as likely to flip or even more so than North Carolina since it was slightly closer in 2016 and is more elastic.