County Streaks Ended in 2016

[Politician]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

No it won't. The Democrats are favored to win there.

I don't know about that. This county divided between rural areas and Cleveland exurbs. Elyria and Lorain are cities full of the average Trump voter. Really, if anything, its amazing Clinton managed a win here.

If even Clinton carried a county like this, it's ridiculous to call it Safe R.

[Xeuma]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

No it won't. The Democrats are favored to win there.

I don't know about that. This county divided between rural areas and Cleveland exurbs. Elyria and Lorain are cities full of the average Trump voter. Really, if anything, its amazing Clinton managed a win here.

If even Clinton carried a county like this, it's ridiculous to call it Safe R.

She carried it by a few hundred votes. I'd call it Likely R, probably closer to Lean though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

You're right. This was made before election results were finalized, and Clinton overtook Trump after I posted this back in 2016. Corrected.

[mianfei]

Some more longtime Democratic counties that might flip if Trump improves upon 2016:

• Deer Lodge, MT (D since 1928)
• Carlton, MN (D since 1932)
• Lake, MN (D since 1936)
• Portage, WI (D since 1960)
• Clatsop, OR (D since 1960)
• St. Clair, IL (D since 1976)
• Iberville Parish, LA (D since 1976)
• Grant, NM (D since 1984)
• Cibola, NM (D since 1988)
• Franklin, VT (D since 1988)
• Merrimack, NH (D since 1992)
• Clinton, NY (D since 1996)

Last I checked, all the McCain -> Obama counties flipped back to Trump.

Was this because of voter ID laws cutting into black turnout? Still, that hardly explains Chaffee County.

[Calthrina950]

Some more longtime Democratic counties that might flip if Trump improves upon 2016:

• Deer Lodge, MT (D since 1928)
• Carlton, MN (D since 1932)
• Lake, MN (D since 1936)
• Portage, WI (D since 1960)
• Clatsop, OR (D since 1960)
• St. Clair, IL (D since 1976)
• Iberville Parish, LA (D since 1976)
• Grant, NM (D since 1984)
• Cibola, NM (D since 1988)
• Franklin, VT (D since 1988)
• Merrimack, NH (D since 1992)
• Clinton, NY (D since 1996)

Last I checked, all the McCain -> Obama counties flipped back to Trump.

Was this because of voter ID laws cutting into black turnout? Still, that hardly explains Chaffee County.

The reason why Chaffee and Garfield Counties have been so closely divided in recent elections probably has to due with the fact that they both contain a combination of Democratic and Republican areas (the Democratic tourist towns of Salida and Glenwood Springs versus Republican rural areas). And Salida and Glenwood Springs are not as Democratic as say, Telluride, Aspen, Vail, Breckinridge, or Steamboat Springs, to give a few examples. Jared Polis narrowly won both counties over Walker Stapleton in the gubernatorial race last year.

[Calthrina950]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

And indeed it did. It's amazing how perceptive some posters turned out to be concerning 2020's election results.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

And indeed it did. It's amazing how perceptive some posters turned out to be concerning 2020's election results.

Xeuma apparently lives in Lorain County, so I'm not that surprised he called this.

[Calthrina950]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

All but Ada County went for Biden last year. I think Ada County will flip into the Democratic column sometime within the next decade, possibly as soon as 2024.

[Calthrina950]

Here are 3 counties in Ohio that have been Democratic that I think Trump could win, Especially if it's a great night for him.

-Lorain
-Mahoning
-Maybe Summit if Trump wins by 15% statewide and 3-4% nationally.

Wasn't Nixon in 1972 the last Republican to win Mahoning County? I think it is definitely possible that Trump could win it, since he came very close there against Clinton. And I do believe that Tim Ryan will become vulnerable sometime during the next decade, as traditionally Democratic white working-class, blue collar areas, continue to abandon the Party.

Ryan winning by only 7.6% in 2020, a horrendous collapse from his 22% and 35% margins of victory in 2018 and 2016, shows how Democratic fortunes in that part of Ohio have receded. Republicans will have no problems redrawing or dismantling his district, and it helps to explain why he is going for a Senatorial bid. His collapse is parallel to that which Collin Peterson suffered in MN-07 between 2012 and 2018 before finally falling last year.

[Schiff for Senate]

I had no idea that many Iowa counties flipped

32 altogether - more than in any other state!
(It also contains the only county nationally to go for both Obama and Trump by more than 20 points apiece, leading to it mistakenly being thought of as the largest Republican-swinging county in 2016 - that county was, in fact, Elliott County, Kentucky, which had never voted Republican prior to 2016 and went for Obama in 2012 by 3 points, the worst for a Democrat until the time, before going for Trump in 2016 by more than 40 points.)

[Calthrina950]

I had no idea that many Iowa counties flipped

32 altogether - more than in any other state!
(It also contains the only county nationally to go for both Obama and Trump by more than 20 points apiece, leading to it mistakenly being thought of as the largest Republican-swinging county in 2016 - that county was, in fact, Elliott County, Kentucky, which had never voted Republican prior to 2016 and went for Obama in 2012 by 3 points, the worst for a Democrat until the time, before going for Trump in 2016 by more than 40 points.)

Obama won a majority of counties in Iowa in 2008 and nearly carried a majority in 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden only won six counties each. All of the rural counties carried by Obama in that state are gone for Democrats now.

[Schiff for Senate]

I had no idea that many Iowa counties flipped

32 altogether - more than in any other state!
(It also contains the only county nationally to go for both Obama and Trump by more than 20 points apiece, leading to it mistakenly being thought of as the largest Republican-swinging county in 2016 - that county was, in fact, Elliott County, Kentucky, which had never voted Republican prior to 2016 and went for Obama in 2012 by 3 points, the worst for a Democrat until the time, before going for Trump in 2016 by more than 40 points.)

Obama won a majority of counties in Iowa in 2008 and nearly carried a majority in 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden only won six counties each. All of the rural counties carried by Obama in that state are gone for Democrats now.

Exactly. It still does blow my mind that Obama was able to win so many small rural counties in IA that are overwhelmingly white and should have by conventional logic been prime Romney territory. Obama didn't even do that well in rural IL (and IL was his home state).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I had no idea that many Iowa counties flipped

32 altogether - more than in any other state!
(It also contains the only county nationally to go for both Obama and Trump by more than 20 points apiece, leading to it mistakenly being thought of as the largest Republican-swinging county in 2016 - that county was, in fact, Elliott County, Kentucky, which had never voted Republican prior to 2016 and went for Obama in 2012 by 3 points, the worst for a Democrat until the time, before going for Trump in 2016 by more than 40 points.)

Obama won a majority of counties in Iowa in 2008 and nearly carried a majority in 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden only won six counties each. All of the rural counties carried by Obama in that state are gone for Democrats now.

Exactly. It still does blow my mind that Obama was able to win so many small rural counties in IA that are overwhelmingly white and should have by conventional logic been prime Romney territory. Obama didn't even do that well in rural IL (and IL was his home state).

IA was weird and to a point still is. Obama, for instance, won the White vote. And even still Dems still get more of the White vote than in most states, since winning 45% of the Iowa vote is like winning 40% of the White vote.

[Calthrina950]

I had no idea that many Iowa counties flipped

32 altogether - more than in any other state!
(It also contains the only county nationally to go for both Obama and Trump by more than 20 points apiece, leading to it mistakenly being thought of as the largest Republican-swinging county in 2016 - that county was, in fact, Elliott County, Kentucky, which had never voted Republican prior to 2016 and went for Obama in 2012 by 3 points, the worst for a Democrat until the time, before going for Trump in 2016 by more than 40 points.)

Obama won a majority of counties in Iowa in 2008 and nearly carried a majority in 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden only won six counties each. All of the rural counties carried by Obama in that state are gone for Democrats now.

Exactly. It still does blow my mind that Obama was able to win so many small rural counties in IA that are overwhelmingly white and should have by conventional logic been prime Romney territory. Obama didn't even do that well in rural IL (and IL was his home state).

IA was weird and to a point still is. Obama, for instance, won the White vote. And even still Dems still get more of the White vote than in most states, since winning 45% of the Iowa vote is like winning 40% of the White vote.

Probably more like 42-43% of the white vote. Iowa is an overwhelmingly white state, and whites in Iowa are only about a point or two more Republican than the state.

[nclib]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

All but Ada County went for Biden last year. I think Ada County will flip into the Democratic column sometime within the next decade, possibly as soon as 2024.

What else ended in 2020 other than these and Zapata, TX?

BTW, is there a reason there isn't a 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Results board, like there is for 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000?