2000: Dole vs. Gore

[Suburbia]

President Bob Dole runs for reelection and wins the 2000 GOP nomination over conservative renegade Pat Buchanan and Texas Gov. George W. Bush. He faces former Vice President Al Gore who wins the 2000 Democratic nomination over former First Lady Hillary Clinton. Who wins?

[Kingpoleon]

277: Robert Dole/Olympia Snowe - 48.4%
261: Albert Gore, Jr./Sam Nunn - 47.8%
Others - 3.8%

[President Johnson]

President Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Vice President Jack French Kemp (R-NY): 294 EV. (49.26%)
Former Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator John Kerry (D-MA): 244 EV. (46.82%)

[Mike67]

I think Dole/Kemp would have won by around 5-6 percentage points.

[Chips]

President Dole: 312 electoral votes
Al Gore: 226 electoral votes

[Agonized-Statism]

President Bob Dole (R-KS) / Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) ✓

IIRC, Dole talked about a one-term pledge. His age would be attacked, whether directly or Obama-McCain style. Note that Dole has ironically outlived Kemp, but no one would know that in 2000. Moreover, while probably a stable and competent leader, he would be out-of-touch with the Reagan Era/Jesusland/religious right people, whose demand for a more Southern personality at the helm led to the Southernization of elections at the time. Finally, PNAC wanted their guy in and Lieberman would be an acceptable substitute for Cheney.

[darklordoftech]

PNAC wanted their guy in and Lieberman would be an acceptable substitute for Cheney.

There’s no way PNAC would prefer Lieberman over Dole. Rumsfeld ran Dole’s 1996 campaign and spoke to the media as its representative, all the PNAC people were among Dole’s foreign policy advisors in 1996, Dole’s foreign policy talking points in 1996 sounded like PNAC, and in 1976, Cheney was the one who reccomended Dole to Ford. Meanwhile, Gore would have Clinton’s foreign policy people advising him and his own foreign policy ideas, making it difficult if not impossible for Lieberman to have any real influence.

For example: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EOAOmQA-77s

[Agonized-Statism]

PNAC wanted their guy in and Lieberman would be an acceptable substitute for Cheney.

There’s no way PNAC would prefer Lieberman over Dole. Rumsfeld ran Dole’s 1996 campaign and spoke to the media as its representative, all the PNAC people were among Dole’s foreign policy advisors in 1996, Dole’s foreign policy talking points in 1996 sounded like PNAC, and in 1976, Cheney was the one who reccomended Dole to Ford. Meanwhile, Gore would have Clinton’s foreign policy people advising him and his own foreign policy ideas, making it difficult if not impossible for Lieberman to have any real influence.

For example: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EOAOmQA-77s

Interesting. My other points still stand, but I wasn't aware that the Dole campaign was so influenced by neocons.

[darklordoftech]

PNAC wanted their guy in and Lieberman would be an acceptable substitute for Cheney.

There’s no way PNAC would prefer Lieberman over Dole. Rumsfeld ran Dole’s 1996 campaign and spoke to the media as its representative, all the PNAC people were among Dole’s foreign policy advisors in 1996, Dole’s foreign policy talking points in 1996 sounded like PNAC, and in 1976, Cheney was the one who reccomended Dole to Ford. Meanwhile, Gore would have Clinton’s foreign policy people advising him and his own foreign policy ideas, making it difficult if not impossible for Lieberman to have any real influence.

For example: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EOAOmQA-77s

Interesting. My other points still stand, but I wasn't aware that the Dole campaign was so influenced by neocons.

I hear you on the other points.

Even if neocons weren’t involved in the Dole campaign, the only thing that would get neocons to defect from the GOP would be if Pat Buchanan was the GOP nominee, and Dole isn’t a Buchanan Republican. I also think that Dole and Rumsfeld were friends since the 1960s and that the Republican Revolution of 1994 made the GOP a neoconservative party.

[Alben Barkley]

WTF is everyone overrating Dole so much for? I don't think he'd have a chance.

Probably the 1996 map except Dole maybe wins some of AZ, KY, NV. Maybe loses GA. He simply didn't have the crossover appeal Bush did which allowed him to hit the Democrats at home and win states like AR and even TN. He didn't have any more charisma than Gore, and he was a lot older which would have mattered at that time. And he had just lost. People would be like "Him again?" Not like he came particularly close either and was coming for a comeback, Nixon style. It would be more like Stevenson running in 1956.

[Alcibiades]

WTF is everyone overrating Dole so much for? I don't think he'd have a chance.

Probably the 1996 map except Dole maybe wins some of AZ, KY, NV. Maybe loses GA. He simply didn't have the crossover appeal Bush did which allowed him to hit the Democrats at home and win states like AR and even TN. He didn't have any more charisma than Gore, and he was a lot older which would have mattered at that time. And he had just lost. People would be like "Him again?" Not like he came particularly close either and was coming for a comeback, Nixon style. It would be more like Stevenson running in 1956.

Yep. The two times he was on the Republican ticket, he proved himself to be a pretty awful candidate (of course this scenario is based on Dole winning in 1996, which was simply never going to happen).

[darklordoftech]

WTF is everyone overrating Dole so much for? I don't think he'd have a chance.

Probably the 1996 map except Dole maybe wins some of AZ, KY, NV. Maybe loses GA. He simply didn't have the crossover appeal Bush did which allowed him to hit the Democrats at home and win states like AR and even TN. He didn't have any more charisma than Gore, and he was a lot older which would have mattered at that time. And he had just lost. People would be like "Him again?" Not like he came particularly close either and was coming for a comeback, Nixon style. It would be more like Stevenson running in 1956.

The premise here is if Dole won in 1996.

[Alben Barkley]

WTF is everyone overrating Dole so much for? I don't think he'd have a chance.

Probably the 1996 map except Dole maybe wins some of AZ, KY, NV. Maybe loses GA. He simply didn't have the crossover appeal Bush did which allowed him to hit the Democrats at home and win states like AR and even TN. He didn't have any more charisma than Gore, and he was a lot older which would have mattered at that time. And he had just lost. People would be like "Him again?" Not like he came particularly close either and was coming for a comeback, Nixon style. It would be more like Stevenson running in 1956.

The premise here is if Dole won in 1996.

Oh, well in that case, it depends on exactly how and why Dole won in 1996. Did the Lewinsky scandal come out sooner and sink Clinton or something? If so, did he lose a bunch of support in the South, the Midwest, both? What did the map look like?

I don't know, I just find it hard to see. I mean, the Lewinsky scandal if anything seemed to just increase Clinton's approval ratings as it was. Something truly drastic would have had to change for Dole to win in 1996. Did the economy somehow crash or something? If so, what's it like in 2000? How's Dole's approval? Etc. Again, the whole scenario just seems so implausible that I'd need to have a lot more information about just how dramatically different this alternate situation is before I can assess what an incumbent President Dole's chances might have been in 2000.

[darklordoftech]

WTF is everyone overrating Dole so much for? I don't think he'd have a chance.

Probably the 1996 map except Dole maybe wins some of AZ, KY, NV. Maybe loses GA. He simply didn't have the crossover appeal Bush did which allowed him to hit the Democrats at home and win states like AR and even TN. He didn't have any more charisma than Gore, and he was a lot older which would have mattered at that time. And he had just lost. People would be like "Him again?" Not like he came particularly close either and was coming for a comeback, Nixon style. It would be more like Stevenson running in 1956.

The premise here is if Dole won in 1996.

Oh, well in that case, it depends on exactly how and why Dole won in 1996. Did the Lewinsky scandal come out sooner and sink Clinton or something? If so, did he lose a bunch of support in the South, the Midwest, both? What did the map look like?

I don't know, I just find it hard to see. I mean, the Lewinsky scandal if anything seemed to just increase Clinton's approval ratings as it was. Something truly drastic would have had to change for Dole to win in 1996. Did the economy somehow crash or something? If so, what's it like in 2000? How's Dole's approval? Etc. Again, the whole scenario just seems so implausible that I'd need to have a lot more information about just how dramatically different this alternate situation is before I can assess what an incumbent President Dole's chances might have been in 2000.

Maybe no OK City bombing and no government shutdown could help Dole?

[darklordoftech]

PNAC wanted their guy in and Lieberman would be an acceptable substitute for Cheney.

There’s no way PNAC would prefer Lieberman over Dole. Rumsfeld ran Dole’s 1996 campaign and spoke to the media as its representative, all the PNAC people were among Dole’s foreign policy advisors in 1996, Dole’s foreign policy talking points in 1996 sounded like PNAC, and in 1976, Cheney was the one who reccomended Dole to Ford. Meanwhile, Gore would have Clinton’s foreign policy people advising him and his own foreign policy ideas, making it difficult if not impossible for Lieberman to have any real influence.

For example: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EOAOmQA-77s

Interesting. My other points still stand, but I wasn't aware that the Dole campaign was so influenced by neocons.

Apparently Rumsfeld gradually took over the Dole campaign, so I suspect that the neocons were among the few who weren’t willing to throw Dole under the bus.

[Samof94]

WTF is everyone overrating Dole so much for? I don't think he'd have a chance.

Probably the 1996 map except Dole maybe wins some of AZ, KY, NV. Maybe loses GA. He simply didn't have the crossover appeal Bush did which allowed him to hit the Democrats at home and win states like AR and even TN. He didn't have any more charisma than Gore, and he was a lot older which would have mattered at that time. And he had just lost. People would be like "Him again?" Not like he came particularly close either and was coming for a comeback, Nixon style. It would be more like Stevenson running in 1956.

The premise here is if Dole won in 1996.

Two words: Illegitimate child.
Oh, well in that case, it depends on exactly how and why Dole won in 1996. Did the Lewinsky scandal come out sooner and sink Clinton or something? If so, did he lose a bunch of support in the South, the Midwest, both? What did the map look like?

I don't know, I just find it hard to see. I mean, the Lewinsky scandal if anything seemed to just increase Clinton's approval ratings as it was. Something truly drastic would have had to change for Dole to win in 1996. Did the economy somehow crash or something? If so, what's it like in 2000? How's Dole's approval? Etc. Again, the whole scenario just seems so implausible that I'd need to have a lot more information about just how dramatically different this alternate situation is before I can assess what an incumbent President Dole's chances might have been in 2000.

[darklordoftech]

PNAC wanted their guy in and Lieberman would be an acceptable substitute for Cheney.

There’s no way PNAC would prefer Lieberman over Dole. Rumsfeld ran Dole’s 1996 campaign and spoke to the media as its representative, all the PNAC people were among Dole’s foreign policy advisors in 1996, Dole’s foreign policy talking points in 1996 sounded like PNAC, and in 1976, Cheney was the one who reccomended Dole to Ford. Meanwhile, Gore would have Clinton’s foreign policy people advising him and his own foreign policy ideas, making it difficult if not impossible for Lieberman to have any real influence.

For example: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EOAOmQA-77s

Interesting. My other points still stand, but I wasn't aware that the Dole campaign was so influenced by neocons.

The NYTimes published an op-ed about the neocon implications of Dole’s rhetoric: https://www.nytimes.com/1996/07/06/opinion/doles-military-card.html

[Suburbia]

Gore would lose KY and WV because of his environmental policies