latest Betfair odds

[Sorenroy]

Dem. nomination
Castro 0.2
Gabbard 0.2
Klobuchar 0.2

Oof. It's probably just a result of dead markets, but dropped candidate Castro and literal no-chance Gabbard beating actual candidate Klobuchar should maybe make her think twice about her grand strategy of 1st in Minnesota -> 2nd in North Dakota -> ??? -> Democratic nominee.

[Volrath50]

Dem. nomination
Castro 0.2
Gabbard 0.2
Klobuchar 0.2

Oof. It's probably just a result of dead markets, but dropped candidate Castro and literal no-chance Gabbard beating actual candidate Klobuchar should maybe make her think twice about her grand strategy of 1st in Minnesota -> 2nd in North Dakota -> -> Democratic nominee.

She's basically the John Kasich of 2016, only with even less of a chance of being relevant.

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before SC results has Biden gaining more ground:

Up: Biden
Down: Bloomberg

Democrats
Sanders 49.2
Biden 25.4
Bloomberg 14.1
Buttigieg 3.2
Clinton 2.1
Warren 1.1
M. Obama 0.5
Caroline Kennedy 0.3
Castro 0.3
Klobuchar 0.2
Holder 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Gabbard 0.2
Brown 0.2

Republicans
Trump 96.2
Rubio 1.7
Pence 1.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 95.2
Sanders 4.8

Republicans
Trump 77.5
Rubio 18.3
Cruz 2.3
Kasich 2.1
Romney 1.9
Ryan 0.5
Bush 0.3
Carson 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Early post-SC Betfair #s show Biden gaining, but at the expense of Bloomberg and Buttigieg.  Sanders is actually up a bit from earlier today…

Up: Biden, Sanders
Down: Bloomberg, Buttigieg

Sanders 50.4
Biden 28.0
Bloomberg 10.9
Buttigieg 2.3
Clinton 1.4
Warren 0.5
M. Obama 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

After some more time to digest the SC results, we now have Sanders gaining again, and Bloomberg recouping much of his loss from yesterday.  Meanwhile, Buttigieg craters into a tie with Warren for 5th place, and Clinton is now in 4th place(!).

Up: Sanders, Bloomberg
Down: Buttigieg

Sanders 52.4
Biden 27.4
Bloomberg 13.1
Clinton 2.0
Buttigieg 1.0
Warren 1.0
M. Obama 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Buttigieg dropout news update…

Up: Biden
Down: Sanders

Sanders 50.9
Biden 30.5
Bloomberg 12.8
Clinton 2.1
Warren 1.0
M. Obama 0.5
Buttigieg 0.4
Yang 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

(post-Klob update…)

Biden’s share price has been soaring recently, now topping 40 as Bloomberg crashes down to 6.5.

Up: Biden, Warren
Down: Bloomberg, Sanders

Sanders 49.2
Biden 40.6
Bloomberg 6.5
Clinton 2.3
Warren 1.9

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Betted on Biden winning Texas and Oklahoma, just a bit sad that i saw too late Klob dropped out, otherwise i went all in for MN for Sanders.

Of course i hope i lose the money Still rooting for Sanders, but 2.60 for Biden in Texas is too high. While I expect the latino surge to help Sanders, it's still a deep southern state with tons of DINO's. And Clinton won the state by a large margin in 2016. I think it's 50/50 - pure toss-up but Klob and Butti dropping out and him having super momentum might pull him over the edge in Texas. Oklahoma is safer i think, even if i lose Texas (and win Oklahoma), i win some money, although not much.

It's still money i won from SC. I'm pretty good in betting on politics. Betted on Trump winning MI and PA, and a safer bet on IA for 2.00 for the case i lost PA and MI.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden has now taken the lead…

Up: Biden
Down: Sanders

Biden 46.3
Sanders 42.2
Bloomberg 6.4
Clinton 2.2
Warren 1.3

Other peer-to-peer betting sites seem to be taking Biden as the slight favorite now as well (though not PredictIt).

But the betting sites with prices set by bookies seem to still have Sanders slightly ahead.  This is all moving pretty fast though, so maybe they just haven’t caught up yet.

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before we get Super Tuesday results: Biden now over 50….

Up: Biden
Down: Sanders

Biden 57.1
Sanders 35.0
Bloomberg 5.7
Clinton 2.2
Warren 1.4

All the betting markets now have Biden as the favorite.

Also, here's a reminder of where we were less than two weeks ago:

Democrats
Sanders 45.8
Bloomberg 29.6
Buttigieg 7.0
Biden 6.4
Clinton 3.4
Klobuchar 2.0
Warren 0.8
M. Obama 0.6
Patrick 0.5
Steyer 0.2
Brown 0.2

[IceSpear]

It's pretty crazy Biden was ever so low. Not that I had clairvoyance and saw all this coming, but he was clearly always going to get at least a modest bounce from his SC win even if it was lackluster. Good money to be made there when he was in the single digits.

[The Free North]

Just massive massive massive moves happening the past few days. Biden now up 20 in AZ, leading in WV too and all of the midwest.

24 hours has made an incredible difference.

[The Free North]

Spreads are MASSIVELY wide though


CT:

Biden is 65 x 54

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It's pretty crazy Biden was ever so low. Not that I had clairvoyance and saw all this coming, but he was clearly always going to get at least a modest bounce from his SC win even if it was lackluster. Good money to be made there when he was in the single digits.

Yes, i betted on Biden winning SC. No regrets

[Mr. Morden]

Update…

Biden 76.5
Sanders 20.1
Clinton 2.3
Bloomberg 1.1
Warren 0.7

[°Leprechaun]

Update…

Biden 76.5
Sanders 20.1
Clinton 2.3
Bloomberg 1.1
Warren 0.7

76.5% of Biden winning sounds about right to me.
This could go up or down after the 10th of March.
Where are the polls for Michigan, by the way? Who wins?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie Bros are gonna drag the nomination fight out, eventhough, Bernie has no chance at a contested Convention

[Mr. Morden]

Biden tops 80, and Clinton bettors are undeterred:

Biden 84.2
Sanders 12.8
Clinton 2.7
M. Obama 0.6
Warren 0.4

Four years ago today we had the same top 3 on the Dem. side, but in reverse order:

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 5.8
Biden 2.6

Republicans
Trump 66.2
Rubio 18.0
Cruz 8.8
Kasich 5.5
Ryan 1.9
Romney 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Warren dropout update:

Biden 83.3
Sanders 13.8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie,  no more, his electability arguement vanished after Biden's smashing victories in Southern primaries

[GeorgiaModerate]

Posted when Biden was in single digits...

Bloomberg seems overvalued and Biden undervalued.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Posted when Biden was in single digits...

Bloomberg seems overvalued and Biden undervalued.

6.4% to > 80%. Can you cash out your bets before they materialise?

[Mr. Morden]

Posted when Biden was in single digits...

Bloomberg seems overvalued and Biden undervalued.

6.4% to > 80%. Can you cash out your bets before they materialise?

All of these transactions are peer-to-peer.  So when someone's betting on Biden at 80% or whatever, there's always someone betting against him at 20%, etc.  Thus, if you buy low at 6.4, then once it grows to 80, you can always find someone to "sell" the share to who's effectively buying "not Biden" at 20.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders down to single digits, just barely ahead of where he was 4 years ago:

Biden 89.5
Sanders 7.2
Clinton 2.6

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 6.9
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 58.8
Cruz 21.7
Rubio 6.2
Kasich 5.4
Ryan 1.8
Romney 1.7
Bush 0.7

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3223661#msg3223661

Romney 89.9
Santorum 3.1
Gingrich 2.1

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1475010#msg1475010

Democratic nomination
Obama 72.5
Clinton 27.0
Gore 1.2
Edwards 0.1

Republican nomination
McCain 96.1
Giuliani 1.3
Huckabee 1.0
Paul 1.0
Rice 0.6
Romney 0.5
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before tomorrow's primaries:

Biden 88.9
Sanders 6.8
Clinton 2.7