latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

When did Obama decisively overtake Clinton in 2008? After Iowa? After South Carolina?

Obama overtook Clinton on betting markets right after Super-Tuesday in February. Which is also about when he started to overtake her nationally in the polling aggregates.

Right, that's when Obama overtook Clinton for good.  However, earlier than that, he had overtaken her about two days after Iowa, when it looked like Obama was likely to win New Hampshire as well.  When Clinton pulled the upset win of New Hampshire though, then she retook the lead in the betting markets, and held it until Super Tuesday.

[Eraserhead]

Why are they still including such people as Hilldog, when most important deadlines have already passed ? CA, TX, FL, GA, NC etc.

Brokered convention.

[Tender Branson]

Why are they still including such people as Hilldog, when most important deadlines have already passed ? CA, TX, FL, GA, NC etc.

Brokered convention.

There is no such thing.

As if delegates there would pick Hilldog as a „compromise“ candidate, a woman who lost in disgrace to Donald Trump in the previous election ...

[Mr. Morden]

Why are they still including such people as Hilldog, when most important deadlines have already passed ? CA, TX, FL, GA, NC etc.

Brokered convention.

There is no such thing.

As if delegates there would pick Hilldog as a „compromise“ candidate, a woman who lost in disgrace to Donald Trump in the previous election ...

I feel like there is this constant conspiratorial thinking about the Clintons from some corners of the right, that imagines that they're going to engineer some last minute shenanigans to take the nomination for Hillary.  I guess those people put $ in the markets.

Anyway, here’s a retrospective on when the winning candidate crossed the 50% mark in these years with multi-candidate fields…

Trump in 2016:
Hit 50% on Jan. 30th, which was two days before Iowa.  Then dropped a lot once Cruz won Iowa instead of him.  But climbed back up over 50% on Feb. 20th after winning South Carolina.

Romney in 2012:
Topped 50% on Dec. 15th after the most recent round of polling showed Gingrich falling.

McCain in 2008:
Topped 50% on Jan. 20th after winning South Carolina.

Obama in 2008:
As I said before, he topped Clinton (and was over 50%) in early Jan., two days after winning Iowa, then lost that lead when Clinton had her upset win in NH, but then topped 50% again a couple of days after Super Tuesday.

Kerry in 2004:
No Betfair or Intrade #s from back then, but we do have the Iowa Electronic Markets:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/closed/data_DConv04.html

At this point 16 years ago, it was:
Dean 69.7
Clark 10.6
Gephardt 6.5
Clinton 6.1
Kerry 2.7

Yes, Kerry, who would eventually become the nominee, was considered a dead duck at that point, lower even than McCain ever got in the 2008 race IIRC, and trailing non-candidate Hillary Clinton.  (Clinton has been in the mix in the presidential betting markets in every election for like 20 years now.)

Dean didn’t drop below 50% until Jan. 19th, which was the day of the Iowa caucus that year.  Kerry went above 50% for the first time on Jan. 23rd.

[Eraserhead]

Why are they still including such people as Hilldog, when most important deadlines have already passed ? CA, TX, FL, GA, NC etc.

Brokered convention.

There is no such thing.

As if delegates there would pick Hilldog as a „compromise“ candidate, a woman who lost in disgrace to Donald Trump in the previous election ...

I don't see it happening either but theoretically it's possible and that's why she is still being included.

[jimrtex]

Why are they still including such people as Hilldog, when most important deadlines have already passed ? CA, TX, FL, GA, NC etc.

I suspect that there is a lot of hedging going on.

Let's say that you and your twin sister, Brenda Transom, agreed that Clinton had a 1% chance of being nominated. Would you be willing to flip a coin to decide which side of the bet you would take.

$1000 if Clinton is nominated vs, $10 if she is not.

You realize that you can put $1000 in a CD, and make a guaranteed $20, vs. a 50% chance you will make half as much.

But let's say you go ahead and flip the coin, and get stuck with a potential liability of $1000 if Clinton were to win. But what if you could get someone to offer you $20 if Clinton won't win, vs. $1000 if she does.

If she wins, you pay $1000 but win $1000. You're even. Is she doesn't win, you've made $10.

I suspect that there are people putting up money to change the price to produce a perception of a trend. If X is increasing in value, it must be because of some factor such as a good debate. Make a series of small bids, offering more and more. You can be out less than a facebook ad.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders back in 2nd place (though again, it’s nearly a tossup for 2nd), and Bloomberg hits a new high:

Democrats
Biden 23.6
Sanders 16.8
Warren 16.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Bloomberg 10.5
Clinton 6.5
Yang 3.8
Klobuchar 2.1
M. Obama 1.4
Kerry 1.0
Patrick 0.9
Gabbard 0.8
Booker 0.4

Republicans
Trump 86.7
Pence 6.8
Haley 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

The Clinton balloon deflates a little.  Let’s see if it continues.  Meanwhile, the latest trade on Booker had a lower price than the latest trade on folks like Sherrod Brown and Andrew Cuomo.

Democrats
Biden 24.1
Sanders 16.8
Warren 16.8
Buttigieg 14.1
Bloomberg 10.5
Clinton 5.5
Yang 3.2
Klobuchar 2.3
M. Obama 1.2
Patrick 0.9
Gabbard 0.5
Brown 0.4
Steyer 0.3
Cuomo 0.3
Booker 0.2

Republicans
Trump 87.5
Pence 6.8
Haley 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

We’ll see if this lasts, but the last few hours have seen a notable surge for Biden (all the way up to 30), and a big drop for Buttigieg….who’s now in danger of dropping behind Bloomberg for 4th place.

Up: Biden, Warren
Down: Buttigieg, Clinton

Biden 30.0
Warren 17.7
Sanders 17.4
Buttigieg 10.9
Bloomberg 10.0
Clinton 4.5
Yang 3.4
Klobuchar 2.1
Patrick 0.9
Gabbard 0.7
M. Obama 0.6
Steyer 0.3
Booker 0.3
Harris 0.2
Cuomo 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg made up some lost ground following his big drop last night, but still below his pre-debate #s.  Bloomberg drops, presumably on the news that he’s very unlikely to make the next debate.

Up: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Trump
Down: Bloomberg, Pence

Democrats
Biden 31.0
Sanders 18.0
Warren 17.4
Buttigieg 12.2
Bloomberg 9.1
Clinton 4.8
Klobuchar 3.4
Yang 3.2
M. Obama 0.8
Patrick 0.8

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 4.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 6.5
O’Malley 1.4
Biden 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 35.5
Cruz 27.3
Trump 23.6
Bush 11.9
Christie 6.8
Romney 0.8
Paul 0.5
Carson 0.4
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders numbers are improving due to Bloomberg ads, Bloomberg is only helping Bernie, not himself or Biden

[Mr. Morden]

Biden expanding his lead some more…

Up: Biden
Down: Buttigieg

Democrats
Biden 33.5
Sanders 18.6
Warren 16.8
Buttigieg 10.9
Bloomberg 8.4
Clinton 4.8
Klobuchar 3.4
Yang 3.2
M. Obama 0.9
Patrick 0.8

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 3.0
Haley 2.7
Romney 1.4

Four years ago today:

Democratic nomination
Clinton 91.7
Sanders 6.8
O’Malley 1.3

Republican nomination
Rubio 35.0
Cruz 28.8
Trump 24.2
Bush 11.6
Christie 6.5
Romney 1.1
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Paul 0.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3131565#msg3131565

Romney 68.5
Gingrich 11.3
Paul 8.1
Huntsman 5.2
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.3
Santorum 1.3
J. Bush 0.6

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1370885#msg1370885

Democrats
Clinton 63.0
Obama 29.4
Edwards 5.5
Gore 2.6

Republicans
Giuliani 28.4
Romney 25.8
McCain 16.9
Huckabee 14.7
Paul 7.2
Thompson 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders back above 20…

Up: Sanders, Warren
Down: Biden, Clinton

Democrats
Biden 31.4
Sanders 21.3
Warren 17.7
Buttigieg 10.7
Bloomberg 7.8
Clinton 3.8
Klobuchar 3.4
Yang 2.9
M. Obama 0.9
Gabbard 0.5

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 3.2
Pence 2.4
Romney 1.4
Kasich 1.3

Four years ago at this point:

Rubio 35.5
Cruz 27.3
Trump 23.6
Bush 11.6
Christie 6.8
Romney 0.7
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.4
Kasich 0.2
Paul 0.2

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3134233#msg3134233

Romney 72.9
Gingrich 7.7
Paul 6.9
Huntsman 4.0
Perry 2.6
Santorum 1.6
Bachmann 1.1

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1373737#msg1373737

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 69.3
Obama 25.0
Edwards 5.6
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.1

REPUBLICANS
Giuliani 28.5
Romney 23.3
McCain 18.0
Huckabee 13.8
Paul 6.4
Thompson 3.3
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.2
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Eraserhead]

Somewhat realistic numbers, finally.

[coloradocowboi]

Somewhat realistic numbers, finally.

Nothing showing Bloomberg with a non-zero % chance is realistic.

[Eraserhead]

Somewhat realistic numbers, finally.

Nothing showing Bloomberg with a non-zero % chance is realistic.

Keyword: "Somewhat."

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Sanders
Down: Biden

Democrats
Biden 30.5
Sanders 22.2
Warren 17.4
Buttigieg 11.1
Bloomberg 7.5
Clinton 3.8
Yang 3.4
Klobuchar 2.7
M. Obama 0.8
Patrick 0.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 3.8
Pence 3.7
Romney 1.4

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.4

Republicans
Rubio 35.6
Cruz 26.0
Trump 25.4
Bush 11.4
Christie 6.5
Romney 0.7
Carson 0.5
Kasich 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Paul 0.2

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3135758#msg3135758

Romney 75.1
Paul 7.5
Gingrich 5.7
Santorum 3.6
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.6
Bachmann 0.9

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1375643#msg1375643

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 67.5
Obama 24.0
Edwards 6.1
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.2

REPUBLICANS
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 24.3
McCain 21.2
Huckabee 11.4
Paul 7.0
Thompson 3.0
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg is far too high and man, they should drop Hilldog.

[weixiaobao]

Up: Sanders
Down: Biden

Can you give me a link directly?  I went to that website once.  But they usually have like sell and buy prices or whatever.  How did you got those numbers?

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Sanders
Down: Biden

Can you give me a link directly?  I went to that website once.  But they usually have like sell and buy prices or whatever.  How did you got those numbers?

Easiest way to get the number in probability form like I show here is to go to this Oddschecker link:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

and look under the odds listed for each candidate under "Betfair Exchange" (4th column from the right).  For Biden right now they have 23/10.  Because of how odds are written, if you want to translate that into a probability, that's 10 / (23 + 10) = 30.3.  However, especially for some of these that are written as fractions, they often just show an approximation there, and you can get a more precise # by clicking on Biden's name, which gives a popup window with the latest transaction prices.  That shows that the latest Betfair Exchange odds for Biden are actually 41/18, or 18 / (41 + 18) = 30.5.

[weixiaobao]

and look under the odds listed for each candidate under "Betfair Exchange" (4th column from the right). 

Thank you, mr. Morden.  I recognize you from the last 2 cycles.  Since you already did the work for me.  I gonna just copied the numbers from this thread to my excell sheet.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders surging some more…

Up: Sanders, Biden
Down: Warren, Bloomberg

Democrats
Biden 31.8
Sanders 25.4
Warren 16.3
Buttigieg 11.4
Bloomberg 5.8
Clinton 3.8
Yang 3.0
Klobuchar 2.1
M. Obama 0.8
Gabbard 0.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 4.5
Romney 3.4

As a reminder, here’s what the #s were about 6 months ago:

Democrats
Harris 30.0
Warren 18.6
Biden 15.4
Buttigieg 9.5
Sanders 8.4
Yang 3.3
Gabbard 3.1
Booker 2.5
Gillbrand 1.8
Clinton 1.6
O’Rourke 1.6
Castro 1.4
M. Obama 1.2
Abrams 0.7
Klobuchar 0.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.6

[weixiaobao]

Sanders surging some more…

Do you also keep track of Iowa betting odds?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden surging…

Up: Biden, Bloomberg
Down: Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg

Biden 34.5
Sanders 24.1
Warren 15.4
Buttigieg 10.5
Bloomberg 7.8
Clinton 3.4
Yang 2.7
Klobuchar 1.9
Gabbard 0.6
M. Obama 0.5

Four years ago at this point:

Rubio 35.2
Cruz 26.6
Trump 24.2
Bush 11.1
Christie 6.5
Carson 0.5
Romney 0.4
Kasich 0.4
Ryan 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3142333#msg3142333

Romney 79.3
Santorum 5.9
Gingrich 5.0
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 1.9
Perry 0.7
Bachmann 0.2
J. Bush 0.2
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Palin 0.2
Ryan 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

More gains for Biden and Sanders…

Up: Biden, Sanders
Down: Warren

Biden 35.9
Sanders 26.0
Warren 13.8
Buttigieg 10.7
Bloomberg 7.8
Clinton 3.6
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 2.0
Gabbard 0.5
M. Obama 0.5